Will Friends of Yemen follow through?

As the “Friends of Yemen” meet in London on April 29 to coordinate international support for Yemen’s transition, the question many Yemenis have is “Will they actually follow through?”
With so many conferences held for their benefit over the past few years, they are still waiting to see on the ground all those promised changes — better security, a thriving economy and a more stable political system. All three tracks are closely linked together, making it difficult to make visible progress on any of them separately.
There is no question that Yemen is better off today than it was three years ago, when the forces of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh were intent on annihilating the peaceful opponents of his regime.
However, the GCC Initiative succeeded in ending that confrontation and President Saleh handed over power in November 2011. A handful of United Nations Security Council resolutions solidified the peace and Yemen started and concluded its National Dialogue Conference, which resulted in a wide-ranging consensus on how to run the country. For example, for the first time in its history, Yemen will be run by a federal system, devolving power and governance to six provinces. A new constitution is being prepared and national elections are being planned to re-set Yemen on the right track politically. But the naysayers are aplenty: The Houthis, Al-Qaeda, southern separatist extremists and supporters of the former president. They are all trying to derail this historical bargain by the use of force. The Houthis, in particular, have occupied areas near the capital, with a view to influence the transition process in their favor.
Security has improved, especially inside the cities. But terrorism still poses a serious threat. Al-Qaeda in the south and Houthis in the north, and traditional tribal terrorism in-between, have frustrated government efforts in reestablishing security and the rule of law everywhere in Yemen.
Economically, the GCC Initiative was accompanied by financial incentives that have prevented a free fall of the Yemeni economy. The Yemeni riyal’s exchange rate was stabilized and the hemorrhage in foreign reserves reduced, largely through a billion dollar deposit made by Saudi Arabia in Yemen’s Central Bank. Other aid trickled and indigenous economic activity has resumed, reversing the shrinkage in GDP that was caused by the 2011-2012 crisis.
However, Yemen’s full economic recovery is still beyond reach. It remains one of the poorest countries in the region. Security challenges as well as delayed economic and political reforms have made it difficult for foreign investment to make a significant comeback, while poor economic conditions have made it difficult for the government to reestablish security and rule of law, in an impossible to unpack Catch-22.
“Friends of Yemen” was launched in London in January 2010, before Arab Spring and the 2011-2012 crisis in Yemen, to prevent it from sliding into disarray. It includes in its roster now a loose gathering of about 40 countries and organizations, all of which have expressed keen interest in Yemen and support for its plans to bring about stability, security and prosperity for its citizens.
The London meeting will focus on discussing progress in Yemen’s transition plans following the conclusion of the National Dialogue Conference (NDC), as well as restructuring the Friend of Yemen to better fit the current phase.
With the success of the National Dialogue Conference earlier this year, Yemen has entered a new stage in its transition toward a constitutional referendum and elections. Priorities for the meeting include assessing progress on the political, economic and security objectives set at previous Friends of Yemen meetings. In particular, the group will discuss how to ensure faster disbursement of aid promised over the past years and that the funds pledged to help support Yemen’s future are spent effectively.
To re-structure the group as befits the new phase of Yemen’s transition, the London meeting will discuss a Yemeni proposal for reorganizing it so that it can provide more targeted support where it is needed.
By agreement, the Friends of Yemen has had a tripartite leadership: Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. The group has enjoyed strong support from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the European Union (EU) and the United States (US), as well as dozens of other countries and international organizations.
The challenges before Yemen and consequently the Friend of Yemen are monumental, but they are not insurmountable. Some 40 countries and organizations have repeatedly expressed their political support in various fora and they are about to do the same in London this week.
Foreign aid commitments have also been significant, especially from GCC countries. Total amount of pledges that Yemen has received over the past eight years has exceeded $15 billion from its friends, not including humanitarian or security assistance.
What is needed is technical assistance to help Yemen utilize these unprecedented pledges of financial assistance from every corner of the earth. Yet curiously this small step has been difficult to make, for both Yemen and its friends. Having been involved in trying tackle this impasse for more than a decade, I know that no one knows for sure why it has been difficult. Theories abound, of course. But Yemen and its friends have a historical opportunity this week to agree on a new path forward to help translate international pledges of support, financial and otherwise, into actual facts on the ground, facts that Yemeni citizens could see and appreciate.