Turkey’s role in Syria essential

One of the regional countries that needs to be reengaged into efforts to find and implement a political solution in Syria is Turkey. Ankara has been a key supporter of the Syrian revolution and a major critic of the Syrian despot, Bashar Assad. It received the largest number of Syrian refugees during the last five years.
Until today, Turkey hosts the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) and most of the anti-Damascus opposition groups. Its influence over the Syrian opposition cannot be underestimated and its relations with rebel groups are vital if a final deal is to be accepted. Turkey has offered its main air base to the US-led anti-Daesh coalition out of Incirlik.
Since the downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkey on Nov. 24, Moscow has stepped up its diplomatic quarrel with Ankara accusing it of buying oil from Daesh. Turkey responded by claiming that it is the Assad regime which is receiving oil shipments from Daesh.
Since the downing of the Russian jet, Ankara has stopped all military flights in Syria for fear of a Russian reprisal. As relations between Turkey and Russia soured, cooperation between them over finding a political solution to the Syrian crisis has also waned.
But Turkey’s role in Syria is of paramount importance. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a major foe of the Assad regime. The collapse of a peace deal between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) last August has changed Erdogan’s priorities, as he waged open war against the movement. Turkey also fears that Syria’s Kurds, who are backed by the US in their fight against Daesh, will attempt to carve out their own autonomous enclave in the future, thus reviving Kurdish calls for independence from Turkey.
To complicate things further, Turkey is under pressure to respond to repeated Syrian regime and Russian raids against Turkmen minority in northwestern Syria. The Turkmen rebels have been instrumental in their fight against the Assad regime. For Turkey attacking Syria’s Turkmen is a red line.
Furthermore, recent Russian-Turkish tensions have derailed Erdogan’s plans to establish a safe zone along the Syrian-Turkish border. Moscow has voiced opposition to such plans and Erdogan never got the US backing he was seeking. In fact, some believe that NATO’s lip service in support of Ankara’s position following the Nov. 24 incident had angered Turkey.
The ongoing tensions between Ankara and Moscow could thwart political efforts in Syria. Turkey has warned of closing its straits for Russian ships if it sees any threat to its national security. A couple of maritime incidents in the Mediterranean and in the straits recently could have developed into possible confrontations.
Until November, Russia and Turkey had a good working relationship. But President Vladimir Putin had always expressed concern over the role played by regional powers in Syria. Moscow fails to understand that the anti-Assad coalition is against Iran’s hegemony in Iraq and Syria. The Turkish-Saudi alliance is seen as a proper response to Iran’s regional agenda and its interference in the affairs of Arab countries.
Likewise, Turkey was suspicious of Russia’s direct involvement in Syria last September. Moscow has created its own coalition comprising Damascus, Baghdad and Tehran, further raising fears in Ankara. Russia’s military intervention in Syria has undercut Ankara’s leverage and ability to maneuver. And as Washington and Moscow developed a common outlook on Syria, Turkey and its allies felt the Americans were abandoning them. Certainly as the US and Russia decided to leave the future of Assad hanging in the balance, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar renewed their commitment to supporting Syrian rebel groups.
It would be wrong to keep Turkey isolated. Ankara’s weight and role in Syria are fundamental to securing a future political settlement. Its interests as a neighbor of Syria cannot be underestimated. It must be drawn back into the political process as a key player. It is seen as a counterbalance to Iran’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq. Without Turkey there can never be a political solution in Syria.
The Russian position toward Turkey is not based entirely on the downing of its fighter jet. Putin believes that isolating Turkey will help the military campaign that he is leading to defend Assad. But that is both shortsighted and wrong. The Syrian conflict has turned into a proxy war with many players and stakeholders. No genuine settlement to the five-year conflict will come out if major players are excluded.