Syria: Russia is in the driver’s seat

Ever since Russia decided to intervene militarily in Syria it had become the main interlocutor in the conflict and the party that is primarily responsible for undertaking a political conclusion that is acceptable both regionally and internationally.
The focus has shifted from Washington and its western allies to Moscow, which is now trying to generate a political process that would go in parallel with its military operations in Syria. It goes without saying that Moscow’s direct intervention came, as the Russians believed that the embattled regime of Bashar Assad was on the brink of collapse. Damascus had requested Russia’s help after surmising that neither Iran nor Hezbollah will be able to prevent a wholesale defeat.
President Putin’s decision to double down in Syria was a calculated one. Assad’s fall would have led to the collapse of the Syrian army and state institutions, leading to chaos, geopolitical upsets and giving Daesh the upper hand there. A repeat of what happened in Iraq, Libya and Yemen worried some of Syria’s neighbors, like Jordan, and others such as Egypt and the UAE.
Moscow’s intervention has divided the anti-Assad bloc. The European position deviated over what role should Assad have and whether he should preside over part of the transitional phase. Even the US was now looking into options that would allow Assad to stay on for a short period of time before his ultimate exit. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, along with Turkey and Qatar, stuck to their position that the only acceptable formula for a political solution would be for Assad to depart now.
But after more than three weeks of Russian airstrikes, which the critics say targeted mainly the Syrian opposition and not Daesh, it became apparent that the demoralized Syrian army was unable to achieve breakthroughs in Homs, Aleppo, Damascus countryside and Sahl Al Ghab. Few villages were retaken only to be abandoned few days later. Iranian advisers and Hezbollah fighters suffered heavy losses in latest counteroffensives. Daesh and Al-Nusra front, once bitter enemies, were now considering joining forces to confront the “Russian aggression.” Clearly the military campaign was not going as Moscow had wished.
Assad’s surprise visit to Moscow last week raised questions about its real objectives. Yes Putin reiterated his support for the regime but he also talked about the need for a political process. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called on his US counterpart, John Kerry, to work together to find a political solution in Syria. Putin was quick to brief the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Jordan about Assad’s visit.
While Russia continued with its airstrikes in Syria, Moscow began to shift its focus from military to political process. The four-way meeting in Vienna on Friday, which excluded many parties including France, labored with one single point — the fate and role of Assad. The meeting may have been a failure, but clearly the various parties were homing in on possible compromises. Russia struggled with its position that the fate of Assad would be decided by the Syrian people. But a political process would ultimately decide that controversial point, Russian analysts argued.
Already some see Russia’s intervention in Syria as a political breakthrough for Putin. The rewards go beyond Moscow’s increasing role in Syria. It has now closer ties with Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE; all close allies of the United States. Lavrov, who at one stage doubted the existence of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) was now ready to help the anti-Assad group in its fight against terrorism. Reports said that a proposal was put forward by Lavrov on Friday to freeze fighting between the pro-regime Syrian army and the FSA and hold early elections to determine a transitional government.
A day later Assad was quoted as saying that he was willing to run in an early presidential election, hold parliamentary elections and discuss constitutional changes, but only after the defeat of “terrorist” groups. This came after he was urged by Moscow to open dialogue with the moderate opposition.
Most parties remain in a state of denial. The Syrian National Coalition (SNC) has condemned Russia’s military intervention and rejected calls for opening channels of communication with the regime. Turkey’s position may be swayed by internal challenges and growing fears of the creation of Syrian Kurdish enclave along its borders. Jordan’s main concern is to contain Daesh and protect its northern borders.
One thing is clear for now and that is Moscow is pushing for a political solution and that the future of Assad is no longer off the table so long as the process guarantees the integrity of Syria.