Exit polls in India have been very wrong in the past. Nevertheless there seems little doubt about the result of the country’s recent general election. The BJP has ousted the Congress Party government. Only when the official counting is complete will the margin of the BJP’s victory be clear. Talks of a “landslide” may be wrong.
But if it is a given that Narendra Modi is to be the next occupant of the Prime Minister’s office in Delhi, there remain many uncertainties about both the construction and complexion of his government.
Modi held a long meeting this week with party bigwigs. The debate revolved entirely around the allocation of Cabinet jobs. Veteran BJP leaders, including L.K. Advani will be wanting government positions that they regard as commensurate with their standing. But if Modi is serious about widespread reforms to an ossified bureaucracy that has seriously held back business and economic growth, he has a problem. Key reforming ministries need to be run by younger, more aggressive politicians. India’s new government has to minimize the political baggage of party grandees.
Modi is fabled for his intolerance of opposition. However, unless he is prepared to risk a major party split, he is going to have to accommodate the ambitions of some at least of the BJP top brass, even if they are not the right people for a job. The alternative is to mount a Night Of The Long Knives from the outset, purging the old guard and promoting powerful younger leaders.
The complexion of his first Cabinet will be no less important than the people who make it up. The BJP has a worrying record. Founded in 1980, the initial impetus of the Bharatiya Janata Party grew from religious confrontation. The destruction of the Babri mosque in Ayodhya by Hindu nationalists, who claimed the site to be the birthplace of the Hindu deity Rama, was a scandal that has stained the party, in and out of government, ever since. Modi himself has been accused of anti-Muslim prejudice. As Gujarat’s chief minister he appears to have held back from defending the minority Muslim community during the disfiguring 2002 Gujarat riots. Up to 2,000 Muslims died in a three-day orgy of violence.
Though there have been few reported incidents of overt prejudice during the current BJP campaigning, all of India’s minorities, not simply the Muslims, remain deeply concerned at the prospects of a Modi government. The shock and horror of Ayodhya and Gujarat have not, and probably will never go away. There can be no certainty that the BJP in power will not be actively intolerant of Muslims.
The party’s only other period of power is no sure indication. For six years until 2004, it led the National Democratic Alliance coalition, in which only one other party shared its extreme Hindu nationalist policies. Thus the BJP was never seen in its true colors.
Now, as he wheels and deals to put together his government, Modi may be tempted to relegate to the side the issue of India’s substantial Muslim minority. This would be a grave error of judgment. Now is the precise moment when this forceful politician should be delivering a clear message of inclusiveness. His supporters may have brought him to the brink of government powered by ignorant prejudice. But Modi must be preparing to rule for the benefit of all Indians, not least for the 175 million Muslims who make up 15 percent of the population. He therefore needs to make a point of reaching out early to the Muslim community.
Fine words about inclusiveness may calm some concerns. However only actions will convince Indians of his seriousness. It is just possible that one of his first tasks may be to tackle anti-Muslim violence. There is a hardcore of Hindu nationalists in the party that will be tempted to think that the BJP’s victory means that they are the masters now. If this stupid analysis leads to serious unrest, with a repeat of the sort of riots that devastated Gujarat, Modi will need to act swiftly and decisively. He will need to make clear that he will not tolerate bigotry from any quarter.
If he fails to address this issue, he will be endangering his ambitious plans for economic revival. India needs foreign investment, including from GCC countries with their historic ties with the subcontinent. If his government is shown to be prepared to tolerate bigots, outside money will stay away. Investors from all over the world will see the risk of severe social instability added to all the other legislative and bureaucratic problems the country already faces. And they will sit on their checkbooks.
Can Narendra Modi make it?
