Water wars may sink India-Pakistan ties

The recently held border meeting between key army commanders of archrivals India and Pakistan may give the impression that both countries are slowly making strides toward peace.
Reducing tensions across the Line of Control (LoC) figured on the general’s agenda, but a new kind of war may be taking shape in the region. Control of water resources is expected to be a source of immense dispute between the two neighboring countries in the coming years. Pakistan claims that India is trying to control and steal its share of water by building dams in violation of the Indus Water Treaty 1960.
In this backdrop, Pakistan had objected to the design of Kishanganga Dam on the Indian side of Kashmir on the pretext that it would cause shortage of water in the Neelum Valley. The International Court of Arbitration (ICA) has, however, announced a verdict to allow India to build the project and provide half of the dam’s water to Pakistan. Although the judgment is being hailed by some as a diplomatic victory for Pakistan, India is not too bothered. The Kishanganga project will allow India to produce about 300MW of power, but adversely affect the generation capacity of Pakistan’s 969MW Neelum-Jhelum hydroelectric project by about 13 percent. Pakistan cannot lodge an appeal at any forum to contest the verdict and is, therefore, rather satisfied at having limited rights over the river waters. Before the Kishenganga Dam, Pakistan had also challenged India’s development of the Baglihar dam. Even then, Pakistan was left with no recourse but to accept the judgments in India’s favor. Other reports suggest that India is constructing 33 dams that may impinge upon Pakistan’s share of dedicated waters.
With these developments in mind, water wars between the two thirsty neighbors have the potential to become more dangerous. For now, it seems India has been able to upstage Pakistan on the international stage and record major victories to guide its ambitious hydropower projects. Sooner than later, Pakistan will feel cheated on the Indus Water Treaty and may unleash a strong reaction against India for significantly tampering with the timing and quantity of river water flows. Disruption in water flows will risk Pakistan’s future as it would directly hit the country’s agricultural output and reduce electricity generation capacity.
Pakistan is already reeling under the pressure of a sluggish economy and persistent energy shortages that threaten the country’s political stability and future growth prospects. At the same time, India is struggling to match last decade’s era of historic economic prosperity and placing great emphasis on harnessing the potential of hydel-power projects.
Experts estimate that both India and Pakistan are expected to face considerable water shortage by the year 2050. Rapid rise in urbanization, climate change, population explosion and higher demand for agricultural purposes is expected to strain the region’s water resources. A rise in South Asia’s political temperature cannot be ruled out as the two rivals compete for limited resources at hand.
Therefore, it is imperative that the two countries work together to maintain the sanctity of Indus Water Treaty and respect each other’s rights over water resources.