Obama and ME sectarian tsunami
An Al-Qaeda surge and Sunni-Shiite tumult spanning Iraq and Syria are testing eroded US influence and the logic of a foreign policy built on antipathy to Middle East entanglements.
The return of militants to cities like Fallujah and Ramadi, fabled battlefields for US soldiers, has left US President Barack Obama facing charges he pulled troops home too soon from Iraq and squandered American sacrifices.
US intelligence agencies meanwhile worry that expanding havens for Al-Qaeda extremists in splintered Syria could nurture militants destined for terror missions in the US and Europe.
Top US officials, led by Vice President Joe Biden, have been burning telephone lines to Baghdad, urging Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki to reconcile with Sunni tribes in western Anbar province before assaulting militants from Al-Qaeda-linked Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The frantic US effort mirrors the White House’s struggles to keep pace with revolution and disintegration from Egypt to Syria and Lebanon to Libya. Washington wants Al-Maliki to adopt a two-part strategy to check Al-Qaeda advances. First: Reconcile with Sunni tribes. Then: Take military action.
In effect, that is the strategy US forces used during their Iraq surge, which, in conjunction with a Sunni awakening, helped drive Al-Qaeda out. Obama’s critics blame him for failing to reach an agreement to keep a residual force in Iraq, which they say would have preserved US influence and prevented an Al-Qaeda return.But could a small US force really have stemmed the sectarian tide?
The White House disputes the idea a small US garrison could have stemmed the sectarian tsunami. “When there were 150,000 US troops on the ground, there was a great deal of sectarian violence in Iraq,” White House spokesman Jay Carney said.
Many analysts also believe that the most blame for Iraq’s torment lies with Al-Maliki’s failure to bed down a multi-ethnic government and the overflow of extremism from Syria. But an Iraq that descends into a full-scale civil war scenario would blot Obama’s legacy and undercut his claims he “ended the war.”
Washington has promised to speed the delivery of Hellfire missiles and surveillance drones to Iraq, but some lawmakers fear Al-Maliki could turn more robust weaponry, like attack helicopters, against domestic enemies other than Al-Qaeda. While the CIA is reportedly offering intelligence and some military officers suggest training for Iraqi troops outside the country, there is little support for a more direct US role. The White House is also watching developments in Syria with concern, where a fracturing of the opposition opened the door for Al-Qaeda advances.
Obama has been loath to insert US forces or weapons into the murderous conflict, but critics say he missed a chance to empower a more moderate opposition.
