Is US influence in ME on the decline?

Today, even the Americans are not confident about their country’s influence in the Middle East. Skeptics, who argue that the United States is on the decline, are on the rise. Graham Fuller, the former vice-chair of the National Intelligence Council at CIA and a respected author argues, “Things are getting worse for the US, not because of our weak policies but because the times are changing, our capabilities and energies (are) limited, and we haven’t recognized it yet. We can’t afford to keep on doing those things we shouldn’t have been doing in the first place.”
While I don’t subscribe to the argument that the vacuum left by a possible retreat of America in the Middle East will be filled in by Russia for many reasons, the perception of the Arabs with regard to the future role of the US has slowly but surely shifting. Many of US allies believe that America is turning its back on them. The Egyptian leadership has casted doubts over the reliability of the US. Perhaps, turning to the Russians for weapons is a logical conclusion of the emerging perception among the Egyptians that the US has neither the vision nor the strategy in the wider Middle East.
If anything, President Barack Obama has failed to demonstrate is: Leadership. Neither foes nor friends in the Mideast appreciate his policies. Even Israel, America’s closest ally, is concerned that Obama’s policies will be detrimental to everyone in the long run.
While America’s allies are sometimes wrong, they think that a deal with Iran that fails to put an end to the nuclear program may be a bad one for the region in the years to come. Perhaps, for this reason, France “sabotaged” the talks in Geneva.
Key US allies in the region are certain that Tehran is acting in bad faith. Washington seems desperate to reach any deal with Tehran. Implicit in the US wheeling and dealing is that Washington’s interests should not always be in line with its allies’. Some leading columnists describe behavior of US allies in the region as “ingratitude.” In the words of Thomas Friedman, “We, Americans, are not just hired lawyers negotiating a deal for Israel and the Sunni Gulf Arabs, which they alone get the final say on.”
Meanwhile, the US Congress is debating whether to impose additional economic sanctions against Iran. Obama does not favor imposing new sanctions when he thinks that there may be a deal signed in the near future. He has been trying to convince hard-liners in the Congress with his perspective on the issue of Iran and sanctions. Should the Congress fail to impose new sanctions — which would comfort the president — it would send a bad signal to US allies and it would make America look less reliable.
For many countries in the Middle East, Iran is nothing but an enemy. Furthermore, Tehran’s pro-Assad policies run against the interests of the Arab countries. In other words, the conflict in Syria is not only a civil war but also a regional war the outcome of which would define the future fault lines and the future identity of the region as a whole.
Amid this charged atmosphere, it seems that the P5+1 and Iran are gearing to reach an interim deal that would roll back the nuclear program and prevent it from advancing. It remains to be seen whether Iran will agree on such an agreement without getting something as a quid pro quo. The US efforts to sign off a deal may be undermined by the Congress if the latter proceed with further sanctions against Iran. Not surprisingly and regardless of whether Washington will sign an agreement with Iran, key Arab states feel that not only the US has let them down in one of the most critical moment, but also America’s shift gear is a function of weakness and decline. Some analysts in the Arab region are jumping to a premature conclusion about a possible role for Russia in the region. Few of them still believe in the existence of the “American moment” in the Middle East that once was obvious in the aftermath of the end of the Cold War.

Email: hbarari@gmail.com