Assad: No lessons learned from history

It was around the time when the situation in Syria had not aggravated, a close aide of Bashar Assad called on him in his palace. He reportedly advised Assad to revisit his policies both foreign and domestic. He cited the example of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and how he was accused of possessing weapons of mass destruction and of burying people alive in mass graves. Assad was also reminded of Moscow’s role when Saddam needed the assistance from an ally to pull him out of the crisis that eventually cost him his life. Saddam forgot the key to international politics: There is no free lunch.
Muammar Qaddafi of Libya enjoyed cordial ties (at least initially) with the West but he remained apathetic to the true aspirations of his own people and to the need for strengthening of institutions in the country. He literally offered all that he had for the West to exploit. Qaddafi procured weapons for not only Libya but for other countries of Africa and Latin America. His dream of getting recognition as a universal leader and to gain the stature of the likes of Nelson Mandela never came true. He failed and his failure pushed Libya on the verge of destruction. He looked outward for recognition and failed to understand that he could gain the type of recognition he wanted only from his own people.
The mention of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak would not be out of place. He remained the undisputed strongman of the country for over three decades. He was under the wrong impression that his survival was linked to the western fears from the Islamists. At one point in time, he had allowed the Muslim Brotherhood to gain some 80 seats in the Parliament. That was a clear message to the West that the Brotherhood was pressing to gain power. But when Mubarak seriously thought of passing the presidency to his son, allowing a marriage of power and wealth and permitted pervasive corruption in the country, Mubarak lost the game.
Syria is no different. When Assad senior died in 2000, the constitution was rectified in less than two hours to pass on the power to Bashar. It was the perfect time for him to make up for the lost opportunities and to start afresh. Bashar, during those days, enjoyed popular support enough for him to turn a new leaf in Syria’s history. Unfortunately, the old guards besieged the young president and advised him otherwise.
Damascus’ decisions remained hostage to Tehran despite honest and overtures of the Arabs. However, the Arab message fell on deaf ears. Assad did not realize back then that alliances change and at some critical juncture neither Moscow nor Tehran could support him. Russia would not fight on behalf of Assad and would not lose the world for him!
Assad continued making mistakes! The Lebanese former Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri, was assassinated with the blessing of Damascus and the support of Hezbollah. Were it not for the interference from some genuine friends, Damascus would have paid a heavy price.
It seems that the irrational step taken on Aug. 21, 2013 would prove to be proverbial last straw on camel’s back. It was the fateful day when Assad’s forces unleashed chemical fury killing approximately 1,300 people.
It was natural for the international community to come down hard on Assad’s regime. Now the US feels obliged to strike Assad’s regime in such a way that would drive him to Geneva II. Apparently, Assad had been under the impression that the world community would never reach a consensus over the handling of Syrian crisis. The delusion made him miss the opportunity to reach a political solution when it was possible.
Assad never foresaw the international community reaches understanding as to how to handle Assad. For this reason, he missed the opportunity to reach a political solution when it was possible. Assad did not realize that one visit of UN Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffry Feltman to Tehran was enough to get the green light to strike Assad militarily while Iran would have the right to condemn such an attack. Apparently, it took a similar visit of a key world figure to Moscow to make the Russians realize the scope of the international changes. These changing situations have rendered Assad less important for both the countries. Why did Obama delay the military strike? Why did he seek the Congress approval? He could strike Syria without Congressional approval. It is to isolate Assad internationally. Now the whole world is waiting for the strike and Assad does not know when or how the Americans are going to strike. Now there is a chance that certain political outcomes materialize before even the start of the strike. At the beginning of the crisis, a friend of Assad advised him to go to Dara’a and arrest the officers who were in charge and even to execute them. He recommended that Assad declare his intentions for introducing political reforms — dissolution of the Parliament and announcement of a new Constitution — from Dara’a.
Assad reportedly liked the idea and even made steps to take the opposition in confidence. Alas! Tehran and Hezbollah became major hurdles and that idea never materialized. Now, let us wait for Geneva II with a toothless Assad.

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