Sudans: Is the ice melting?

Unlike his first visit to Khartoum more than two years ago, Salva Kiir, president of South Sudan, comes to Sudan in a few days as a confident man. Over the past few weeks he managed to consolidate his grip over three main power centers: The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the government and the army.
A month ago, Kiir dismissed all his ministers, including his deputy Riek Machar and suspended Pagan Amum, his top Sudan negotiator, before putting him under investigation for alleged disloyalty. Machar was made to pay because he spoke publicly about his readiness to challenge Kiir in the upcoming elections in two years’ time.
A week later, Kiir appointed a new team — smaller, more cohesive — with members more willing to toe his line. As for the army he sent tens of generals packing.
Before these latest moves, the general impression in the country was that Kiir enjoyed limited authority and needed to take other power centers on board before making any decision. That led to some kind of a policy paralysis on one hand and a continuing confrontation with Sudan given different approaches on how to handle the thorny relationship.
Khartoum saw the changes taking place in Juba as positive development. Certain figures who are known to adopt a tough stand against Khartoum are no longer there occupying official positions. For instance, Amum used to be in charge of negotiations with Sudan, while Deng Alor, the former minister of Cabinet affairs, who is a strong voice representing the contested region of Abyei between the two countries, is being investigated for corruption charges. Taban Deng, is no longer governor of Unity State, neighboring Sudan and was believed to be instrumental in helping Sudanese rebels wage guerrilla warfare against Sudanese Army.
In retaliation of Juba’s support to the rebels, Khartoum extended its decision to close the pipeline carrying South Sudan oil to world markets up to Sept. 6. However, recent joint security committees meetings have made tangible progress in terms of putting down some measures for establishing a demilitarized zone and having a system to check whether rebel movements are getting help from the other side.
Now the atmosphere has become encouraging to the extent that a group of prominent Sudanese businessmen paid a visit to Juba last week, where they met Kiir and promised to push toward promoting bilateral relations based on mutual interests.
It is still a long way to go and these developments will be put to test and again.
Even before the thaw sets in, Sudan has already started accusing Southern Sudan Army soldiers of sneaking into border areas to influence a referendum in the contested Abyei region in October. The idea of the referendum stemmed out of a proposal from the African Union, which was never accepted by Sudan. In fact the last thing the two countries agreed upon Abyei is to leave it to the two presidents to decide on, which did not happen so far.
Abyei is the real test for the upcoming Kiir’s visit to Khartoum despite his moves to strengthen his power leading to a better understanding between the two countries.

• This article is exclusive to Arab News.
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