BJP eyes Muslim vote
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finds that many odds are stacked against it as it prepares itself for the next general elections. Several party members and allies of its coalition — the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) — have already signaled their opposition to Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi being nominated as their prime ministerial candidate. The BJP camp is now divided into two — those who favor Modi for the key position and those who are against him. The anti-Modi group in the party wants senior leader L.K. Advani to be in prime ministerial race. And this is just a tip of a complicated dilemma affecting the BJP.
Also, there is a growing realization in the party, even among its hard-core extremist elements, that the party cannot exploit its communal card any more for parliamentary elections.
Therefore, the party has delegated a few of its senior leaders to woo Muslim celebrities to party’s fold, according to some sources. As a matter of fact, the BJP has some Muslim faces, but their political appeal is confined to a just few constituencies. Muslim leaders who joined this party after having been removed from the Congress party are not expected to be of much help in increasing party’s fortune in parliamentary elections. Internally, the BJP views them as “spent bullets.”
Also, secular credentials of both Advani and Modi are severely damaged by their past record. Both of them are accused of having promoted communal politics that alienated the country’s secular and Muslim voters. Advani played a key role in raking up the Ayodhya issue, which led to demolition of Babri Masjid at Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh, on Dec. 6, 1992. The demolition was accompanied by nation-wide riots. The BJP’s commitment to build a temple at the controversial and disputed site in Ayodhya helped it gain politically and emerge as an important national party. However, when the party was confronted with the problem of seeking support of secular parties to lead a coalition government at the center, it had no other option but to remain silent on this communal issue.
The BJP, which won only two seats to Lok Sabha in 1984 elections, definitely came a long way in less than two decades. Yet, the party was not able to form the government on its own strength, because of which the first BJP government with Atal Behari Vajpayee as its prime minister lasted only for 13 days (May 16-31, 1996). Subsequently, for a brief period, Indian center witnessed instability, with non-Congress and non-BJP parties forming a United Front government. The BJP returned to power in 1998 and in 1999, not on its own strength, but with the help of its allies as part of a wider coalition.
Not surprisingly, the recently passed resolutions of BJP have remained silent on Ayodhya issue even though some party leaders assert that they still remain passionate and proud about their Ayodhya agitation. The party knows that a political commitment to Ayodhya issue can cost it secular allies in the NDA. The BJP cannot afford to take this risk.
The BJP is also well aware that had Gujarat-carnage (2002) not taken place, the NDA may have returned to power in 2004 elections.
Modi’s national and secular image still stands tainted by the Gujarat carnage. True, Modi’s success in Gujarat assembly elections cannot be overlooked. However, it cannot be missed that Gujarat is a two-party battleground — the BJP and Congress — where Muslim votes do not play a decisive role. Muslims constitute less than 10 percent of Gujarat’s population.
The picture is totally different at the national stage. Though Muslims form less than 20 percent of the country’s population, the importance of their vote has risen because of the emergence of numerous regional parties. This apparently explains the BJP’s attempt to woo Muslims to its camp. However, it is also not totally sure of whether this drive will help it in parliamentary elections or not.
The party is, however, well aware that Gujarat carnage remains a major obstacle to secular allies accepting Modi as party’s prime ministerial nominee. It is as yet too early to black out Gujarat carnage from Modi’s political record. To keep this dark chapter away from the public debate, the BJP is going overboard in publicizing development of Gujarat with Modi as the state chief minister. Yet, even this hype is now being punctured by various questions raised on the legitimacy of claims being made about Gujarat’s development.
Besides, even if the development claim stands true even to a certain degree, the anti-Modi front does not like him to be a prime ministerial candidate. It does not want Gujarat carnage to be repeated elsewhere in the country. There are also elements within the BJP who are wary of Modi’s authoritarian attitude. They are apprehensive that Modi’s style of politics may reduce their own importance within the party. The BJP is thus faced with a major dilemma. Modi is not as acceptable within the party and by its “secular” allies as it was earlier believed while Advani and his camp have not yet given up hopes.
Amid all this, the party realizes that prospects of it returning to power without support of Muslim votes and “secular” parties are practically non-existent. Against this backdrop, the billion-dollar political question confronting the BJP is how to win over Muslim voters?
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