Obama’s Mideast visit: Will it make any impact this time?

FOLLOWING the conclusion of the Oslo accords, I asked the late Palestinian leader, Faisal Al-Husseini, as why the Israelis opted for a negotiated settlement in the end. He qualified his answer, saying that it was basically the Labor Party, that, given its secularist tendencies, was alarmed by the growing influence of the Jewish fundamentalist groups on the Israeli body politic and that reaching a peaceful settlement would help curtail that drift toward ultra-conservatism and give the left and center trends led by the Labor Party a life span.
He added that during the talks the Israelis were trying to persuade their Palestinian counterparts, saying that if a deal was not reached with the Labor Party, Palestinians would be left to negotiate with right-wing groups led by the Likud. In response to that argument, Husseini said, the Palestinians told the Israeli negotiators that if Likud was to assume power, it would find on the other side of the table, the hard-line group Hamas, and not the moderate Fatah.
The Likud did, in fact, assume power with a slight majority later, before the Oslo accords could be implemented. Benjamin Netanyahu became prime minister for the first time and governed with clear intention of spoiling the peace deal by replacing it with a vicious circle of talks that concentrates mainly on the process without concentrating on a goal of achieving peace.
That was made possible by the inability of the Palestinians to come up with a unified front on peace, and, more importantly, the shrinking of the Israeli peace movement and the rise and consolidation of the right and fundamentalist groups, who are now dictating the trend of Israeli politics. The evident example is the settlements drive that is intended to undermine the goal of a two-state solution.
That drive has led the European Union consuls in Jerusalem to call for sanctions on Israel. According to a story that appeared in Haartez late last month, the 2012 consuls’ report called for divestment measures as well as sanctions against settlements in the West Bank and Eastern Jerusalem. According to the report, seven of the 10 recommendations dealt with imposing direct or indirect sanctions by the EU on bodies and organizations involved in construction in the settlements, in addition to actively encouraging European divestment from the settlements. This is particularly severe, compared with previous internal EU reports. The consuls state that the continuation of Israel’s policy in East Jerusalem could thwart the possibility of the city serving as the Israeli and Palestinian capital and therefore put the entire two-state solution at risk. A large portion of the report dealt with Israeli restrictions on Muslim and Christian religious practices in Jerusalem and accused Israel of attempting to change the character of Jerusalem as a city sacred to the three faiths. The Israeli government “selectively enforces legal and policy restrictions on religious freedoms and on access, in particular, for Christian and Muslim worshippers to their holy sites in Jerusalem/Old City,” the report stated.
This change in European feelings that may or may not translate into practical steps comes at a time when US President Barack Obama is planning a visit to the region. Though he is coming at the beginning of his second term, it gives an impression that he may be investing some political capital trying to reach a deal at a time when he is free from reelection politics. The EU consuls’ report may be used as an appetizer for some tough measures against Tel Aviv, but it seems that there is no real reason to build high hopes.
If Obama’s inaugural speech or his State of the Union speech is any guide, his main focus will be on a host of domestic issues focusing on how to balance the budget and control the ballooning deficit. Moreover, it is the changing Middle East in the wider context, apart from the Arab-Israeli debacle, that looks like the main area of Obama’s concern, in addition to the indigenous problems in both camps, such as the failure of Netanyahu to form a government until now and the stand-still situation between Fatah and Hamas.
Apparently a second term Obama administration won’t change that.