For a majority of observers, it is a matter of when and not if President Bashar Assad will fall. The failure of his war on his people cannot be more obvious. Even Farouq Shara, the Syrian vice president, confessed that winning the battle of Damascus militarily is next to impossible. If anything, the regime is moving fast off the cliff. From the get-go, Assad and his cohorts have taken a huge and risky gamble when they resorted to a security approach in dealing with the peaceful demonstrations. Hi bet that his security apparatuses would eventually crush the opposition proved wrong. The security apparatuses developed by his late father and the Russians and Iranian help have been inadequate to deal with this new type of revolutions.
Unsurprisingly, the war of attrition fought by the fighters has taken a huge toll on the regime itself. The army — which is being grounded down by endless battles — looks as if it is about to lose. In fact, it has lost the will to fight back as evident in the battle over the airport and in some neighborhoods in Damascus. There is no question that the fighters are gaining strength in weapons and men. More importantly, the fighters think and feel that a final victory is within reach.
The unfolding situation begs the following question: Can the regime do anything to reverse the situation? No, is the answer. Over the months of the battle over Syria, both parties have been locked in a life or death battle. Each side has sought to survive and therefore there is no room for a political settlement that would allow Assad to stay in power even for a while. Some commentators fear that Assad may resort to using chemical weapons to stave off a certain defeat. The running argument for many is that he has already killed tens of thousands of people thereof killing extra thousands would not be too much for someone who tries to avoid a fatal defeat at all costs. That said, it is clear that Assad will not survive a chemical attack on his opponents, as the international community will not allow this to take place.
All in all, Assad is a doomed president. And yet, he is still in denial. He pledged to fight to his last bullet. In his words, “if I go, none of Syrian remains.” But this easier said than done. His close allies — Russia and Iran — are having a second thought about Assad himself. For instance, Iran — who has the staunch ally all along the revolution — has just presented a six-point plan to guarantee at least a future role in Syria. Although the Iranian initiative suggests a political solution to the crisis, it is plagued with ambiguity particularly with regard to Assad himself. But implicit in the initiative is Iran’s readiness to accept the departure of Assad. The question then whether fighters will accept a role for Iran in the first place. This is unlikely to happen due to the widespread impression and perception among Syrian revolutionaries that Iran has helped the regime cracking down on them for almost two years.
The Iranian leadership has failed to take into account the fact that the fighters never trusted Iran. More importantly, the fighters are emboldened by the development on the ground and the most recent Western support. They genuinely feel that Assad is desperate and the prospects for his survival are not on the table.
It remains to be seen how Assad will be managing his defeat. Certainly, he feels that the noose is fast tightening around Assad neck. Will he just drop the gun and opt for an exist strategy to escape the fate of the Libyan leader? Or will he fight his last battle using whatever at his disposal to either win the battle or set a huge price tag on the revolutionaries?
While Assad is in his last stand, his fraying alliance indicates that he is going to leave the political scene in the months to come. Regional powers and stakeholders in the conflict need to develop plans to identify ways of dealing with a pro-Assad Syria. The collapse of Assad regime may not lead to an automatic stability and a power vacuum may ensue.
Bashar Assad’s last stand!
Bashar Assad’s last stand!
