What could be Congress party’s game plan in fielding Shweta Bhatt against Narendra Modi to contest Maninagar seat in the forthcoming Gujarat assembly elections?
Shwetta is the wife of Sanjeev Bhatt, a suspended police officer, who has pointed the finger at Modi for his negative role in the Gujarat carnage in 2002. Clearly, while Sanjeev is engaged in a legal battle against Modi, his wife has decided, with Congress’ support, to fight against him in the political domain.
In view of Modi having a strong base in Maninagar and entire Gujarat, prospects of him facing a close contest from Shweta may be viewed as good as nonexistent. Yet Shweta and the Congress party are not expected to take part in this political drama without expecting some gains. Had Congress selected any party worker with strong roots in Gujarat to take on Modi, most probably the candidate would not have received as much media attention as Shweta has.
The Congress has tried justifying Shweta’s candidature as a sign of priority the party is giving to enhancing the role of women in politics. Certainly, Shweta has suddenly become an important political personality for media, political observers and of course the Gujarati public. Though an advocate by profession and also a classical dancer, till she filed her nomination papers to contest from Maninagar, Shweta was more of a homemaker and hardly an active career woman. Had she not been the wife of Sanjeev, who dared to challenge Modi legally, in all probability, the Congress would not have selected her.
By pushing Shweta into the political fray against Modi, the Congress has succeeded in compelling people to once again reflect on the horrific communal phase Gujarat went through in 2002. This may be viewed as a multipurpose strategy. The primary purpose is to incite a fear of extreme communalism that the state faced in 2002. The Congress is to a degree hopeful that this may help at least secular Gujaratis have a second thought before voting Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to power.
Here, it cannot be forgotten that with Modi at the helm, the BJP has won two assembly polls after the Gujarat carnage in 2002 and 2007. Both the times, the Congress failed in pushing Modi out of power. Chances are that this political history may repeat itself during these assembly elections.
Nevertheless, the Congress is banking on Shweta to boost anti-Modi campaign in the state more forcefully than it could in 2002 and 2007.
The fact that she is the wife of a suspended police officer is likely to make Gujaratis more inquisitive about knowing what she has to say. From this angle, within a short period, Shweta is getting more media coverage than most other candidates contesting the polls.
She may certainly succeed in attracting crowds too. Modi retains a lead against her in media as well as where his show of supporters is concerned. Although, he is expected to win, the Congress would feel better with Shweta giving Modi a stronger fight than he is prepared for.
If Shweta fares well, even marginally, this would make the Congress feel more confident about planning its political strategy for the next parliamentary elections. This also indicates that Shweta has been fielded by the Congress to contest assembly polls with an eye on parliamentary elections. The Congress is apparently not too concerned about Shweta’s victory or defeat. The party’s key agenda is to ensure that her campaign plays a significant role in setting the stage for the party’s performance in Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) polls.
There is a view that infighting within the BJP and the saffron brigade over Modi’s political ambitions might play a greater role against him in Gujarat than the Congress campaign including Shweta. Although several party leaders have cautiously said that Modi could be their prime ministerial candidate, some are known to have strong reservations against him heading the government if the BJP and its allies win the next parliamentary elections.
As of now, support of BJP leaders for Modi as their prime ministerial candidate has been voiced primarily as part of their campaign for the party in Gujarat. Yet, this strategy may not be received well by voters. It implies that even if Modi wins his seat and assembly elections, within a year or so he may step out of this zone to try his political luck in Lok Sabha elections.
In other words, voting for Modi means having him at the helm in the state for a year at the most. The possibility of this political turn dissuading the voters from favoring the BJP in the assembly polls cannot be ruled out. Voters may display this political trend not because of Shweta but only if factions within the BJP and the saffron brigade betray Modi.
Ever since Modi has been Gujarat’s chief minister, he has played his political cards only to build up his image. He has not allowed any other BJP leader to assume much significance in the state.
At the national level, BJP leaders are tacitly against them being humbled by this attitude. Besides, they also fear losing support of their secular allies by presenting Modi as their prime ministerial candidate. Against this backdrop, Modi’s performance in Gujarat polls is likely to be more strongly shaped by whether his party workers, the saffron brigade and allies decide to support him. The possibility of them deflating his political ambitions cannot be ruled out.
Shweta, by no stretch of imagination, is a strong political candidate against Modi. She has entered the political arena against a seasoned politician. The nature of Modi’s electoral performance is strongly dependent on the campaign strategy of his party workers and its associate groups, including the saffron brigade. It is to be watched whether the BJP infighting over his national ambitions helps Modi.
Could Shweta versus Modi make a difference in Gujarat?
