Russia: Assad is to stay

IN one of the Syrian secret documents that I have seen, the head of Syrian intelligence bureau at the Syrian Embassy in Moscow wrote an analysis on the Russian attitude toward his country. Inspired by interviews with officials there, he concluded that Russia sees in the Syrian issue a chance to restore its role in the region.
As a political analysis, it seems that the behavior of the leadership of Putin supports what the Syrian officer wrote. The Russians are looking for a role in the region, and to return to the Middle East, which two decades ago was their primary area of influence. And what was attributed to French Foreign Minister, Oran Fabius, saying that his Russian counterpart had told him that Bashar Assad would remain. The British Foreign Secretary, William Hague, who said that the Russians have increased their unyielding position, confirmed this story.
My previous information was that the Russians tried once to talk about a solution that included removing Assad from power, but they want assurances of their interests in Syria. An elastic word, the least being the continued service of the navigational contract at their marine base Tartous. The most problematic would be that the Syrians pay Assad’s debts — which amounted to billions of dollars — that has been used to buy arms and ammunition to kill thousands of Syrians and supply the regime with cash and food.
If we connect all the information of the Russians’ search for a role in the Middle East, by supporting Bashar’s regime and the bargaining over his release against the many interests and obligations, we are witnessing a bigger battle than ever before.
Does this actually mean that Assad remains because Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told European ministers that Assad is staying against their will and against the Syrian people? Of course not.
Russia could decide tonight to give it up and Assad would fall in a matter of days. But the Russians cannot decide if he remains only because few foreign ministers sat to study the problematic situation. Lavrov knows, as well as President Putin, that the survival of Assad is impossible. His fall is only a matter of time, and that may extend into the middle of next year. It may mean an additional 50,000 Syrian bodies and the destruction of the rest of country. What Lavrov said, in fact, means that the price is higher. But it does not mean that Assad remains.
The ability of foreign countries to determine destinies of other nations is no longer a straightforward and easy matter, as they divided the map of the region in the Sykes-Picot Conventions and San Remo 90 years ago. Instability has become more expensive for powerful countries and the most dangerous to their stability, no matter how remote. A case in point is the ongoing battle in the sub-Sahara in Africa.
Yes, the new Middle East will be formed in which there will be no place for Assad, whether the Russian Kremlin decided it or not. The question is whether Russia’s interests will remain there or not?
They have chosen the worst gates to return to the region, the backing of the worst regimes, and the least likely to stay. Previously, they were welcome as allies and friends on the chessboard of the region in Egypt, Sudan, Iraq, Syria, South Yemen and Algeria. Their alliance with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, clearly puts them in a tight corner, and is driving more of the region’s governments and peoples toward the West and not the other way around.

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