King’s move averts showdown in Jordan

BY intervening late Sunday and ordering Prime Minister Dr. Fayez Tarawneh to freeze an earlier decision to hike the prices of fuel products, King Abdallah of Jordan averted a political showdown that threatened to topple the government and unleash a wave of protests against worsening economic conditions and lack of reforms. Eighty-nine deputies were planning to send a letter to the king vowing to withdraw confidence from the government in the wake of the price hike decision that was taken without their consultation.
Hours before the royal intervention hundreds of protesters gathered in Amman and other towns to protest the price increase. They were led by the Islamic Action Front (IAF) officials and were joined by protesters representing secular and nationalist movements. Even taxi drivers went on strike and blocked key intersections in the capital.
The government's decision was criticized by columnists, party heads and even politicians loyal to the regime. It was the second time that this government had taken such a decision within few months. Analysts tied the move to conditions imposed by the IMF which has provided a $ 2 billion loan to Jordan as part of a 36-month Stand-by Arrangement (SBA). The latest price hike, of about 10 percent, is thought to be one step in a series of steps that the government will have to take in the coming months including raising the price of electricity and other utilities. Jordan has been suffering from a growing budget deficit (12 percent of GDP in 2012) and mounting foreign debt that has exceeded $ 20 billion.
Earlier in the week the government issued an international stress call to raise $ 700 million in emergency funds to help it deal with the costs of absorbing and hosting more than 150,000 Syrian refugees, 25,000 of whom are housed in Al-Zaatari refugee camp in the north.
The influx of refugees has put additional burdens on the Jordanian treasury. Officials have complained that few aid donors have honored their commitments to the country. Last week Jordan's Foreign Minister Nasser Joudeh told the UN Security Council that the kingdom can no longer deal with new Syrian arrivals, estimated at 5,000 daily, and that it is considering implementing restrictions.
The latest political crisis comes in the wake of public discontent with a new election law that was adopted by the Parliament a few weeks ago. The IAF and other parties and movements have made up their decision to boycott the coming legislative elections. No date has been set yet for the new polls but the King has recently reiterated his commitment that they will be held before the end of the year. Still there is an air of mystery surrounding the fate of the elections, which will be overseen by a newly formed independent commission. Analysts have suggested three scenarios; that the elections will be held sometime in November, that low voter registration, around 700, 000 so far out of a target of two million, will compel the commission to delay them until next year, and that deteriorating events in Syria and the possibility of a foreign military intervention there will force the government to postpone the elections indefinitely.
After this week's royal initiative, which was welcomed by Jordanians from all walks of life, a fourth scenario emerged suggesting that the king might now consider amending the election law, for a second time, so that opponents may change their position and participate. Failing to do that and going through with the polls amid Islamists' boycott will not end political tensions which have been festering for more than 17 months. The majority of Jordanians want genuine political reforms, most important of which is a representative government. Constitutional amendments, adopted last year, have polarized Jordanians, with conservative forces saying they are satisfactory and opponents calling for more. The bone of contention has been the election law, which the opposition says it will bring about a traditional and loyalist Parliament.
The worsening economic conditions have added additional pressure on the government, which has no option but to seek IMF and donors help in order to deal with its fiscal and structural challenges. In the past two years the king had to appoint four prime ministers, underlining the country's tense political realities. Almost each premier had to grapple with the tough challenge of raising prices and ending official subsidies.
Dr. Tarawneh, a conservative, has been criticized for failing to appreciate the new realities brought about by the Arab Spring. He has pushed on with an unpopular election law, raised prices and has now submitted a controversial legislation that threatens free expression in cyberspace and imposes censorship. His government has turned its back to the Islamists and other nationalist parties and movements. In the view of many the decision to hike gasoline prices last week was both reckless and arbitrary. It may have sealed the government's fate.
An immediate crisis may have been averted for now, but the combined challenges of endemic economic uncertainties and pressures, political impasse and regional unknowns, especially with regard to Syria, will make the coming months uneasy for the decision maker.

— Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
Email: [email protected]