Is Egypt getting into the Thermidor period?
AT the eleventh hour, the ruling military council in Egypt showed clearly that its days are far from numbered. In fact it is more or less ushering the country into a Thermidor period. This indicates a period of relaxation from revolutionary policies. The term stems from a revolt during the French Revolution in 1794 against the excesses of the Reign of Terror. Since then, it came to be one of the characteristics of revolutions throughout history.
Crane Brinton in his book “The Anatomy of Revolution”, published in 1938, studied the British, the French, American and Russian revolutions and came up with laws and regulations that govern their fervor.
He concluded two major findings: The economy plays a central role in the uprising of people against the old regime and revolutions are born out of hope, rather than misery. Revolutions are followed by a romantic, short honeymoon, then a dual sovereignty. After that, a reign of terror, that is followed by a Thermidor period. This prepares the country for a new tyrant; it restores many ways and practices of the old regime and replaces the missionary revolutionary spirit with an aggressive nationalism.
Brinton wrote his book before he could see the collapse of the Russian revolution and the end of communism. He certainly never predicted the communication revolution that was the prime factor behind the Egyptian revolt. This revolution started through social networking tools like Twitter and Facebook.
Still, the framework of his theory remains intact: Revolutions are born out of hope. The same goes for the various phases revolutions pass through to the point where they reproduce their own dictator again. At stake then and now is the need to restore life to normalcy.
In some 18 months, Egypt seemed to have completed the circle and is about to enter the Thermidor phase. In a quick move and a carefully timed measure, the only elected body of the Parliament was declared unconstitutional. The military automatically became the only constitutional body issuing rules and ensuring that they are carried out. Through its executive branch, the government, it made sure that elected members of the Parliament are barred from entering the legislative building and that the famously scrapped emergency law was reinstated through the government. More important is the fact that whoever will be elected as president will find that he has far fewer powers, that the military council will be the guardian of the system. The Egyptian military is effectively staging a soft coup and are cloning the experiment of their Turkish counterparts, who instated themselves as guardians of the republic and the only interlocutors of its principles.
The two main questions that now are dominating the scene are whether the military moves will succeed, given the deteriorating economic conditions during the past 18 months. Second is what will be the impact of what happened in Egypt on the rest of the Middle East and what came to be known as the Arab Spring.
The first is most important as the game is not fully over. The Muslim Brotherhood continues to be a significant player in the political scene, given its history of more than 80 years and its ability to survive all sorts of repressions as a political outcast. Having denied the constitutional powers through the defunct Parliament it used to control, it has compensated somehow on getting the presidency. It remains to be seen whether it will go for a confrontation with the military or agree to be ushered into the period of Thermidor. This would allow the military to still have the upper hand, at least for the time being.
The Muslim Brotherhood has a fair bit of experience in dealing with odd political situations. Though officially outlawed, they managed to perform through alliances and even dealings with the very regime that outlawed them.
Their point of strength will be their undeniable popularity, which the military needs. It is no longer the 1950s where officers can stage a coup and rule the way they want.
- This article is exclusive to Arab News
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