JERUSALEM: The US-Iran pact to conclude the war is a significant strategic setback for Israel and underscores its waning influence in Washington, Israeli analysts said.
Although the accord remains incomplete and is expected to be finalized within 60 days, its preliminary framework has already raised concern in Israel.
Analysts argue it effectively locks in Iranian gains while deferring the most sensitive issue for Israel: its security.
According to former intelligence officer Danny Citrinowicz, this means the US-Iran deal amounts to nothing less than a “political and security catastrophe for the state of Israel.”
It is also a blow to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who once hoped to sail into October elections as the victor in campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Tehran — but instead is under fire for failing to attain Israel’s key war aims.
“We knew for quite a long time that it was going to be an agreement that would take into account most of the interests of the Iranians,” said Sima Shine, an analyst with Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.
“The issues that are important to Israel, such as the nuclear one, are left for some future that we don’t know,” said Shine, also a former Israeli intelligence officer.
The US and Israel launched a joint campaign against Iran on Feb. 28.
Beyond leaving the nuclear question unresolved, Citrinowicz said the result of the conflict makes it unlikely that any future US president would risk renewed military action against Iran.
This, analysts say, effectively allows Tehran to emerge stronger after more than three months of conflict.
“At the end of the day, Iran is becoming stronger, and Israel has no ability to influence the US president’s decisions,” Citrinowicz argued.
Netanyahu has yet to publicly respond to the deal, but his coalition ally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, has already dismissed it, saying Israel is “not bound” by the agreement.
“It’s a very, very, very bad development for Israel, and for Netanyahu specifically, who was, you know, Mr. Iran,” said Citrinowicz, referring to Netanyahu’s long history of antagonism with Iran.
“Mr. Iran is stuck with a deal that covers almost none of the issues that are important to Israel,” he said.
While analysts are not surprised by Israel’s absence from the negotiations, they said they are struck by what they see as its eroding influence in Washington.
“Israel never played a direct role in US-Iran negotiations, but simply weighed on the talks through DC,” said Michael Horowitz, an independent security analyst and expert on US-Israeli relations.
“But what’s surprising, and hints at Israel’s fading influence in Washington, is that Trump seems to simply have dashed Israel’s concerns,” he added.
“Not only did Trump ignore Israel, he effectively decided for Israel and without consulting or even warning it. We’re seeing who is in charge and who gets the final say here.”
Michael Milshtein, an expert on Israeli military affairs, said the agreement leaves Israel in a weaker position than before the war on all fronts.
“The only thing that Israel can do is to say, ‘OK, we accept the ceasefire, but let us have a say on the details of the deal, especially the nuclear project’,” Milshtein said.
“Netanyahu brought us to a point of very weak leverage,” he added, arguing that Israel has limited influence over both Washington and broader diplomatic processes.
“It seems that right now we are forced to accept any agreement with Iran, for example, but I assess very soon also with Lebanon and finally with Gaza,” he said, referring to two other theaters where Israeli forces are operating.
