DUBAI: Extreme heat is becoming a defining challenge for global food production, with the Middle East among the most exposed regions.
A joint report by the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Meteorological Organization warns that rising temperatures are no longer a seasonal issue but a structural threat to food systems, putting the livelihoods of more than 1.23 billion people at risk.
The report describes heat as a “risk multiplier,” intensifying drought, water scarcity and crop losses while increasing pressure on farmers and rural workers.
The agricultural impact is already visible. According to the FAO-WMO report, crop productivity declines sharply once temperatures exceed around 30°C, while heat stress is reducing the number of hours farm workers can safely operate outdoors.
In some cases, conditions are becoming unsafe for work for large parts of the year, raising questions not only about yields but about the long-term viability of farming in high-temperature regions.
For Saudi Arabia, where summer temperatures regularly exceed 45°C and water resources are extremely limited, these pressures are particularly acute.
The Kingdom has long faced the constraints of arid agriculture, but rising heat is accelerating the shift toward climate-resilient farming, improved water efficiency and controlled-environment production.
Rising temperatures are no longer a seasonal issue but a structural threat to food systems. (Supplied)
“Saudi Arabia is warming faster than most countries globally, including others in the MENA region,” said Yoshihide Wada, a professor of water resources and climate change at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology.
He noted that parts of the Kingdom are already experiencing 1.5°C to 2°C of warming compared to pre-industrial levels.
According to KAUST’s Climate Futures Report, yields of key crops — including wheat, barley, dates and vegetables — are projected to decline by more than 10 percent as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns shift.
In Qassim, one of Saudi Arabia’s main agricultural regions, crop water demand is expected to rise by around 10 percent this century, adding pressure to a system already heavily dependent on irrigation.
More than 90 percent of Saudi crops rely on groundwater, much of it non-renewable, meaning reduced availability translates directly into lower productivity.
“Current agricultural water extraction routinely exceeds 18 billion cubic meters annually against an annual groundwater recharge of less than 1 billion cubic meters,” Wada told Arab News, adding that around 80 percent of fossil groundwater reserves have already been depleted.
Saudi Arabia is increasingly relying on desalination to meet water demand, with capacity doubling over the past decade to about 2.2 billion cubic meters per year, according to KAUST research.
Crop water demand is expected to rise by around 10 percent this century in Qassim. (Supplied)
However, desalination is energy-intensive and already accounts for nearly 20 percent of the Kingdom’s emissions, adding economic and environmental pressure.
Wada’s research also highlights rising costs across the agricultural system as heat increases both irrigation demand and energy use.
Under a 2-4°C warming scenario, agricultural water requirements could rise by 5 to 15 percent simply to maintain current output levels.
Without significant adaptation, KAUST projections suggest that heat and water stress could constrain the long-term sustainability of food production in the Kingdom.
Yara Elborolosy, a researcher at KAUST, said rising temperatures are increasing demand across sectors simultaneously.
“Heat stress increases water demand across all sectors simultaneously, causing the need for more cooling, more irrigation, and more industrial use.”
This creates competing pressure on limited water resources, complicating long-term planning as agriculture, energy and urban systems draw from the same supply.
DID YOU KNOW?
• Saudi Arabia is warming faster than most countries, with some regions already 1.5°C–2°C above pre-industrial levels.
• The Kingdom receives less than 100mm of rainfall annually on average.
• Total water consumption has more than doubled since 1980, reaching about 23 billion cubic meters.
• Cooling accounts for more than 55 percent of building energy use in Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia’s heavy reliance on food imports adds further vulnerability.
“Saudi Arabia imports more than 80 percent of its food supply,” Elborolosy said.
She added that this exposure leaves the country vulnerable to global shocks, noting that wheat prices surged by more than 50 percent during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting the link between climate stress and geopolitical disruption.
Across the MENA region, similar patterns are emerging as heat, drought and water scarcity increasingly strain agriculture and food systems.
In Morocco, the FAO-WMO report notes that repeated droughts and extreme heat have significantly reduced output, with cereal yields falling by more than 40 percent in some recent seasons.
The country has also endured six consecutive years of drought, with falling rainfall and depleted reservoirs further constraining production.
In Iraq, rising temperatures are accelerating water loss from already strained river systems. FAO data cited in the report shows declining crop yields and shrinking arable land, particularly in central and southern regions. Nearly 40 percent of land is affected by desertification, according to UN estimates.
At UNS Farms’ facility in Al Ain, AI-powered greenhouse systems regulate temperature, shading and airflow. (Supplied)
In Syria, where agriculture has been weakened by more than a decade of conflict, climate stress is deepening existing vulnerabilities, with wheat production falling to some of its lowest levels in decades during recent droughts.
In Yemen and Sudan, both already facing severe food insecurity, extreme heat is worsening conditions by reducing yields, increasing water scarcity and further straining fragile food systems. More than 17 million people in Yemen and nearly 25 million in Sudan are currently food insecure, according to UN and FAO-linked assessments.
Across these countries, the issue is no longer just reduced productivity but whether food can be produced at all.
In response, Saudi Arabia is gradually shifting from water-intensive open-field farming to controlled-environment agriculture and high-tech systems, including hydroponics, greenhouse farming and seawater-based solutions.
Across the region, similar systems are emerging as a way to stabilize production under extreme heat.
Mehlam Murtaza, director of UNS Vertical Farms, said controlled-environment agriculture is becoming an essential component of food systems rather than a replacement for traditional farming.
At UNS Farms’ facility in Al Ain in the UAE, AI-powered greenhouse systems regulate temperature, shading and airflow to enable year-round production despite extreme external heat.
Controlled-environment agriculture requires significant investment, technical expertise and reliable infrastructure. (Supplied)
He said the approach shifts farming from reacting to climate conditions to engineering around them, ensuring more consistent yields.
Water efficiency is central to the model. Through hydroponics and closed-loop irrigation, the facility reduces water use by up to 90 percent compared with conventional farming, a key advantage in a water-scarce region.
However, scaling such systems across MENA remains difficult, especially in lower-income and conflict-affected countries.
“The path forward lies in integration — combining traditional agriculture with advanced, climate-adaptive systems to create a more resilient and future-ready food production ecosystem,” Murtaza told Arab News.
“The model is scalable in principle, but implementation in more vulnerable markets comes with challenges,” he added.
He noted that controlled-environment agriculture requires significant investment, technical expertise and reliable infrastructure, with broader adoption dependent on sustained funding and institutional support.
As extreme heat intensifies, the central question is not whether food systems will be affected, but how far they can adapt before strain becomes breakdown.
