Palestinians in the firing line as Netanyahu faces voters

UN agencies churn out plenty of depressing studies, but few more so than the “Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment” report on Gaza published last week in conjunction with the World Bank and the EU.

It calculates that reconstruction and recovery needs in Gaza are a trifling $71.4 billion over 10 years, with $26.3 billion needed in the first 18 months for urgent recovery. Back in February 2025, the same bodies estimated the costs to be $53 billion.

The housing sector was the most affected, making up 51 percent of the total destruction cost of $35.2 billion. But the report only examined the costs of the first two years of the genocide, so these figures will have gone up since then. Then add to this the expected levels of inflation in all sectors owing to the Iran war.

The $71.4 billion figure equates to more than the annual gross domestic product of Jordan and is three times NASA’s annual budget. The findings echo other recent reports, leading to a consensus range between $70 billion and $75 billion. For comparison’s sake, the estimated costs after the 51-day war in 2014 were about $4 billion to $8 billion. At best, there was then only a partial rebuild. The failure to resurrect Gaza was a factor leading up to the horrific 2023 Hamas attacks. Meanwhile, the total cost of direct physical damage in Syria during its civil war was $108 billion, but that was in a larger country and over a period of 13 years.

Huge unfunded appeals have become a feature of the humanitarian landscape, with donor fatigue at acute levels

Chris Doyle

What Gaza has endured in this genocide is near-total, systematic destruction. This means what is needed is not just an operation to rebuild what was damaged, but a complete reconstruction program. Clearing the 61 million tonnes of rubble alone will take years.

One does have to sympathize with the humanitarian sector. Huge unfunded appeals have become a feature of the humanitarian landscape, with donor fatigue at acute levels and with the Trump administration leading the way.

The humanitarian sector will now be anxiously wondering how much the Israeli-US war on Iran will cost. And how much the reconstruction of Lebanon will cost when that war finally ends. Sudan, of course, remains the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.

Given the absence of a forest of magical money trees, where exactly are these gargantuan funds going to come from? Palestinians, more than most, must be hoping a US-Israel-Iran deal is reached quickly, thus limiting the economic fallout that has already hit the global economy.

Prior to the Iran war, the one mechanism that was established was the highly flawed Board of Peace, a vehicle to remodel Gaza along the lines of US President Donald Trump’s Gaza riviera plan of 2025, while being devoid of Palestinian design and consultation.

Even the Board of Peace now looks busted, given the lack of progress and committed funding. Hamas has yet to disarm. There is no international security presence. Who would bet against the Trump administration abandoning the whole process and leaving Gaza to the fate of the genocidal power, Israel?

The Israeli leadership is showing zero intent to lift the shackles and stop the collective torture of Gaza’s population

Chris Doyle

Perhaps most importantly, Israel has yet to adhere to the October ceasefire in Gaza, in the same way it has yet to adhere to the November 2024 and April 2026 ceasefires in Lebanon. Reconstruction under bombardment and near-total blockade is a nonstarter. And who would carry this out? Diplomats and journalists cannot even enter Gaza. Israel has effectively barred humanitarian agencies from doing their lifesaving work there. So, which construction firms would be able to send their workers into Gaza and under what conditions?

All these UN reports have a dream-like quality. Who do they think they are kidding? They are vital, no doubt. Detailed plans are essential. Yet the genocide continues and the Israeli leadership is showing zero intent to lift the shackles and stop the collective torture of the entire population.

None of this should detract from the real and ongoing human costs. About 1.9 million Palestinians out of a total population of 2.2 million have been forcibly displaced within Gaza, many multiple times. Everyone thinks of the fatality figures, but what about the 41,844 people — a quarter of whom are children — who have suffered severe, life-changing disabilities? What about the mental health costs? A staggering 728,000 schoolchildren have not had any formal education for more than two years, probably more if the COVID-19 pandemic is factored in.

Who would want to bet against most Palestinians in Gaza having to face another winter in flooded, freezing tents? Worse, who would bet against Netanyahu resuming Israel’s full-scale genocidal assault on Gaza, rather than the slowed-down version of the last six months?

Netanyahu has an election to win and perhaps the saddest, most damning indictment of the current Israeli environment is that bombing Palestinians in Gaza wins votes, whereas ending the war and allowing humanitarian access would likely lose him the election. His only challenge is that there is little left to bomb.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech