Soldier shortage may cost Netanyahu at ballot box

A quote often attributed to former French Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau states that “war is too serious a matter to leave to soldiers,” reflecting the complexity of civil-military relations. In a healthy state, the military is subordinated to civilian authority and must never become so powerful that it stands above the state and the law. In some countries, the fear is of military usurpation; in others, especially democracies, the concern is that unelected generals may wield more influence than elected politicians.

In Israel, under Benjamin Netanyahu, it increasingly appears that war is too serious a matter to be left to a tainted and irresponsible political leadership, though this is not to suggest that generals should be left to their own devices.

Since its inception in 1948, there has always been some degree of tension between the country’s political and security establishments, but nothing approaching the current level of friction. Some of this is natural in a country where security, even physical survival, has always been central to public discourse and where both real and exaggerated threats have shaped nearly every aspect of state and society.

Moreover, the Israeli military was designed to be what the country’s founding prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, called a “people’s army.” Since then, it has been far more than a security institution. It has served as a powerful social integrator, one of the most important leveling mechanisms in Israeli society, bringing together young people from different segments of the population.

The Israeli military is not being provided with the personnel necessary to confront current and future challenges

Yossi Mekelberg

It has also functioned as a site of socialization and indoctrination into Jewish and democratic values, as enshrined in Israel’s Declaration of Independence. On the technological front, much of the success behind the so-called startup nation originates in the security forces, where technologically minded young men and women are exposed to advanced systems that later find both civilian and military applications.

Over the years, a considerable number of former generals have gone on to serve as prime ministers, defense ministers, foreign ministers and heads of other ministries. Many members of the Knesset also have military experience, both men and women. Consequently, the lines between the military and political spheres are often blurred. Yet, while the army advises and makes recommendations, it is ultimately the government that makes decisions — decisions the military is obligated to implement, unless they are illegal or beyond operational capability.

It was against this backdrop that, during a security Cabinet meeting last month, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir reportedly expressed deep frustration. He warned that the army “is going to collapse in on itself” under mounting operational demands and a worsening personnel shortage.

“I am raising 10 red flags in front of you,” Zamir said, criticizing the government for failing to pass a new conscription law, a reserve duty law and legislation to extend mandatory service. Without such measures, he warned, the army will soon “not be ready for its routine missions and the reserve system will not last.”

No responsible government could ignore such a warning from its top military commander, especially amid a prolonged war. Yet, in a pattern characteristic of the current Netanyahu government, the response has been to attack and smear the messenger while ignoring the message, because it risked the stability of the coalition government.

Security Cabinet discussions take place behind closed doors and the source of the leak remains unknown. However, Zamir is unlikely to regret that his warning has reached the public. It highlights a critical reality: the Israeli military is not being provided with the personnel necessary to confront current and future challenges, even as it fights on multiple fronts.

The most significant untapped pool of eligible recruits within the Jewish community lies within the Haredi

Yossi Mekelberg

Regardless of one’s views on the missions it is tasked with, the reality is that, for more than two and a half years, the army has been operating with no respite, often successfully, but it is now increasingly stretched and fatigued. Without alignment between the scale, intensity and complexity of its missions and the availability of well-trained personnel in sufficient numbers, it cannot sustain this pace indefinitely.

The military’s reliance on a relatively small standing army and, in particular, a much bigger number of reservists creates unique challenges. Until October 2023, force levels were considered adequate. That is no longer the case. Thousands of soldiers have been killed or injured, while many others suffer from extreme fatigue or PTSD and some of the reservists have served more than 500 days during this period.

The relative stability prior to October 2023 had led to a reduction in mandatory service for men from 36 to 30 months. At the same time, the long-standing issue of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) exemption from military service, while always present, has become far more acute. This is compounded by a growing number of Israelis leaving the country since the current government came to power more than three years ago.

The result is an immediate shortfall of about 15,000 soldiers. The most significant untapped pool of eligible recruits within the Jewish community lies within the Haredi. Yet the vast majority refuse to serve, following the directives of their rabbis. It is estimated that there are about 80,000 Haredi men aged 18 to 24 in Israel. Last year, only 1,212 of the 24,000 called up actually enlisted.

Beyond the practical implications for military readiness, this issue raises profound moral and societal questions that risk tearing Israeli society apart. While secular Jewish Israelis, non-Haredi Jews, Druze and many Bedouins are fulfilling their military obligations, often at great personal and familial cost, tens of thousands of ultra-Orthodox men neither serve nor share the burden. Yet many continue to receive state benefits tied to religious study, whether they attend their studies or not, without a corresponding sense of civic duty.

Instead, some protest conscription outright, chanting slogans such as “We’d rather die than enlist.” Despite a High Court of Justice ruling nearly two years ago mandating the drafting of Haredi youth, the coalition government has obstructed its implementation. As well as undermining morale among those who serve, this leaves the military leadership struggling to meet operational demands due to insufficient manpower.

The issue of ultra-Orthodox conscription is likely to play a major role in the next general election. It highlights the hypocrisy of the most right-wing coalition in Israel’s history: a government that favors military solutions over diplomatic ones, while simultaneously shielding a key constituency from service. Netanyahu and his Likud party, in their cynicism, are yielding to coalition partners to preserve their political support.

Before long, this may become a decisive issue at the ballot box, as those who serve, along with their families, might seek to express their frustration with what they perceive to be a profound injustice and betrayal.

• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House.

X: @YMekelberg