RIYADH: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has risen to its highest levels since the early days of the war, as more countries appear to have reached agreements with Iran to ensure safe passage.
The shipping lane saw 21 vessels pass through over the weekend, as an increasing number of energy-constrained governments negotiate the exit of ships, cargo, and crews from the Arabian Gulf, reinforcing Iran’s control over the maritime corridor.
This marks the highest total recorded over a two-day period since early March, when maritime traffic was in decline. Of these vessels, 13 were bound for the Arabian Sea.
Iranian vessels continue to dominate traffic, although an oil tanker carrying Iraqi crude passed through the strait on Sunday after Iran granted what it described as an exemption to “brotherly Iraq.”
Moreover, eight liquefied petroleum gas tankers operated by India also transited the strait after New Delhi negotiated the exit of some of its ships and, for the first time in years, purchased Iranian liquefied petroleum gas.
Although vessel traffic remains significantly lower than pre-war levels, when around 135 ships crossed daily on a regular basis, more countries are managing to secure passage.
Last week, two container ships linked to China passed through the strait on a second attempt, alongside two vessels associated with Japan.
Strait of Hormuz in focus amid Trump threats
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime passage linking the Arabian Gulf to the wider world, has become a focal point as the war enters its sixth week, amid threats by US President Donald Trump to target civilian infrastructure and “unleash hell” on Iran if the passage is not reopened.
In contrast, Tehran indicated that it will not proceed with reopening the passage until the transit fees it collects from vessels cover the damages caused by the war.
According to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler in Singapore, “Iran is responding to the requests of its partners while strengthening its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Transit remains subject to Iran’s discretion, and the situation could change at any time if the conflict escalates.”
Tehran is also moving forward with legislation to formalize its control over the strait and establish transit fees, a step that would institutionalize a payment system that has operated informally for weeks, according to shipowners.
Safe passage deals with opaque terms
Despite Tehran’s negotiations with friendly countries, the terms of these agreements remain opaque, a situation that is also reflected in publicly acknowledged arrangements, such as the deal with Iraq over the weekend.
The uncertainty is even greater in cases where it is not clear which parties have secured safe passage, including vessels linked to France and Japan.
Last week, Pakistan was offered permission to move 20 ships out of the Arabian Gulf, a number exceeding the vessels currently stranded behind the Strait of Hormuz.
The country is considering options, including deploying additional tankers and potentially reflagging vessels under different flags to secure supplies of fertilizers, oil, and other commodities.
So far, most vessels granted the green light have sailed along a route apparently designated by Tehran, hugging the Iranian coastline. However, an increasing number have begun navigating along the opposite shore.
Oman, which shares the waters of the strait, confirmed on Sunday that it had held talks with Iran aimed at ensuring the smooth flow of maritime traffic.
