Trump’s 50-day ultimatum gives Russia a chance to wear down Ukraine

Trump’s 50-day ultimatum gives Russia a chance to wear down Ukraine
A chronic shortage of manpower and ammunition has forced Ukrainian forces to focus on holding ground rather than launching counteroffensives. (AP)
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Updated 17 July 2025
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Trump’s 50-day ultimatum gives Russia a chance to wear down Ukraine

Trump’s 50-day ultimatum gives Russia a chance to wear down Ukraine
  • Since spring, Russian troops have accelerated their land gains, capturing the most territory in eastern Ukraine since the opening stages of Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022

President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Russia to accept a peace deal in Ukraine within 50 days or face bruising sanctions on its energy exports has given the Kremlin extra time to pursue its summer offensive.

The dogged Ukrainian resistance, however, makes it unlikely that the Russian military will make any quick gains.

President Vladimir Putin has declared repeatedly that any peace deal should see Ukraine withdraw from the four regions that Russia illegally annexed in September 2022 but never fully captured. He also wants Ukraine to renounce its bid to join NATO and accept strict limits on its armed forces -– demands Kyiv and its Western allies have rejected.

A chronic shortage of manpower and ammunition has forced Ukrainian forces to focus on holding ground rather than launching counteroffensives.

But despite a renewed Russian push — and an onslaught of aerial attacks on Kyiv and other cities in recent weeks — Ukrainian officials and analysts say it remains unlikely that Moscow can achieve any territorial breakthrough significant enough in 50 days to force Ukraine into accepting the Kremlin’s terms anytime soon.

Russia’s main targets

Since spring, Russian troops have accelerated their land gains, capturing the most territory in eastern Ukraine since the opening stages of Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

Russian forces are closing in on the eastern strongholds of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka in the Donetsk region, methodically capturing villages near both cities to try to cut key supply routes and envelop their defenders — a slow offensive that has unfolded for months.

Capturing those strongholds would allow Russia to push toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, setting the stage for the seizure of the entire Donetsk region.

If Russian troops seize those last strongholds, it would open the way for them to forge westward to the Dnipropetrovsk region. The regional capital of Dnipro, a major industrial hub of nearly 1 million, is about 150 kilometers (just over 90 miles) west of Russian positions.

The spread of fighting to Dnipropetrovsk could damage Ukrainian morale and give the Kremlin more leverage in any negotiations.

In the neighboring Luhansk region, Ukrainian troops control a small sliver of land, but Moscow has not seemed to prioritize its capture.

The other two Moscow-annexed regions — Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — seem far from being totally overtaken by Russia.

Early in the war, Russia quickly overran the Kherson region but was pushed back by Ukrainian forces from large swaths of it in November 2022, and retreated to the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. A new attempt to cross the waterway to seize the rest of the region would involve massive challenges, and Moscow doesn’t seem to have the capability to mount such an operation.

Fully capturing the Zaporizhzhia region appears equally challenging.

Russian attempts to establish a ‘buffer zone’

Moscow’s forces captured several villages in northeastern Ukraine’s Sumy region after reclaiming chunks of Russia’s Kursk region from Ukrainian troops who staged a surprise incursion in August 2024. Ukraine says its forces have stopped Russia’s offensive and maintain a presence on the fringe of the Kursk region, where they are still tying down as many as 10,000 Russian troops.

Putin recently described the offensive into the Sumy region as part of efforts to carve a “buffer zone” to protect Russian territory from Ukrainian attacks.

The regional capital of Sumy, a city of 268,000, is about 30 kilometers (less than 20 miles) from the border. Putin said Moscow doesn’t plan to capture the city for now but doesn’t exclude it.

Military analysts, however, say Russian forces in the area clearly lack the strength to capture it.

Russian forces also have pushed an offensive in the neighboring Kharkiv region, but they haven’t made much progress against fierce Ukrainian resistance.

Some commentators say Russia may hope to use its gains in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions as bargaining chips in negotiations, trading them for parts of the Donetsk region under Ukrainian control.

“A scenario of territorial swaps as part of the talks is quite realistic,” said Mikhail Karyagin, a Kremlin-friendly political expert, in a commentary,

Wearing down Ukraine with slow pressure

Ukrainian commanders say the scale and pace of Russian operations suggest that any game-changing gains are out of reach, with Moscow’s troops advancing slowly at a tremendous cost to its own forces.

While exhausted Ukrainian forces are feeling outnumbered and outgunned, they are relying on drones to stymie Moscow’s slow offensive. Significant movements of troops and weapons are easily spotted by drones that are so prolific that both sides use them to track and attack even individual soldiers within minutes.

Russian military commentators recognize that Ukraine’s drone proficiency makes any quick gains by Moscow unlikely. They say Russia aims to bleed Ukraine dry with a strategy of “a thousand cuts,” using relentless pressure on many sectors of the front and steadily increasing long-range aerial attacks against key infrastructure.

“The Russian army aims to exhaust the enemy to such an extent that it will not be able to hold the defense, and make multiple advances merge into one or several successes on a strategic scale that will determine the outcome of the war,” Moscow-based military analyst Sergei Poletayev wrote in an analysis. “It’s not that important where and at what speed to advance: the target is not the capture of this or that line; the target is the enemy army as such.”

Western supplies are essential for Ukraine

Ukrainian troops on the front express exasperation and anger about delays and uncertainty about US weapons shipments.

Delays in US military assistance have forced Kyiv’s troops to ration ammunition and scale back operations as Russia intensifies its attacks, Ukrainian soldiers in eastern Ukraine told The Associated Press.

The United States will sell weapons to its NATO allies in Europe so they can provide them to Ukraine, according to Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Included are Patriot air defense systems, a top priority for Ukraine.

Speeded-up weapons shipments from European allies are crucial to allowing Ukraine to stem the Russian attacks, according to analysts.

“The rate of Russian advance is accelerating, and Russia’s summer offensive is likely to put the armed forces of Ukraine under intense pressure,” Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute in London said in a commentary.

But most of the capabilities that Ukraine needs — from drones to artillery systems — can be provided by NATO allies in Europe, he said.

“In the short-term, Europe can cover most of Ukraine’s needs so long as it can purchase some critical weapons types from the US,” Watling said.

 


Dutch foreign minister resigns over Israel sanctions

Dutch foreign minister resigns over Israel sanctions
Updated 54 min 20 sec ago
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Dutch foreign minister resigns over Israel sanctions

Dutch foreign minister resigns over Israel sanctions
  • Veldkamp said he was unable to take meaningful measures against Israel after a cabinet debate on possible sanctions

THE HAGUE: Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp resigned on Friday after a cabinet meeting failed to agree sanctions against Israel.

“I see that I am insufficiently able to take meaningful additional measures to increase pressure on Israel,” Veldkamp told ANP after a cabinet debate on possible sanctions against Israel was deadlocked.

Last month Veldkamp declared far-right Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich unwelcome in the Netherlands.

On Thursday he said he wanted to take further steps against Israel, but later acknowledged he lacked confidence he could act effectively in the coming weeks or months.

The minister said the steps he had proposed were “seriously discussed” but encountered resistance in successive cabinet meetings.

“I feel constrained in setting the course I consider necessary as foreign minister,” he said.

The Netherlands was among 21 countries that signed a joint declaration on Thursday condemning Israel’s approval of a major West Bank settlement project as “unacceptable and contrary to international law.”


FBI searches home and office of ex-Trump national security adviser John Bolton

FBI searches home and office of ex-Trump national security adviser John Bolton
Updated 22 August 2025
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FBI searches home and office of ex-Trump national security adviser John Bolton

FBI searches home and office of ex-Trump national security adviser John Bolton
  • Bolton emerged as an outspoken critic of President Donald Trump after being fired in 2019
  • Searches come as the Trump administration has moved to examine the activities of other critics

WASHINGTON: The FBI on Friday searched the Maryland home and Washington office of former Trump administration national security adviser John Bolton as part of a criminal investigation into the potential mishandling of classified information, a person familiar with the matter said.

Bolton, who emerged as an outspoken critic of President Donald Trump after being fired in 2019 and feuded with the first Trump administration over a scathing book he wrote documenting his time in the White House, was not in custody Friday and has not been charged with any crimes, said the person who was not authorized to discuss the investigation by name and spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity.

The searches, seemingly the most significant public step the Justice Department has taken against a perceived enemy of the president, are likely to elicit fresh alarm that the Trump administration is using its law enforcement powers to target the Republican’s foes. They come as the Trump administration has moved to examine the activities of other critics, including by authorizing a grand jury investigation into the origins of the Trump-Russia probe that dogged Trump for much of his first term, and as FBI and Justice Department leaders signal their loyalty to the president.

They also unfolded against the backdrop of a 2022 search for classified documents at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, an action that produced since-dismissed criminal charges but remains the source of outrage for the president and supporters who insist he was unjustly targeted despite the retrieval of top-secret records. Current FBI Director Kash Patel, who included Bolton on a list of “members of the Executive Branch Deep State” in a 2023 book, said in a Fox News Channel interview this week that the Mar-a-Lago search represented a “total weaponization and politicization” of the bureau.

Speaking to reporters during an unscheduled visit to the White House Historical Association, Trump said he had seen news coverage of Friday’s searches and expected to be briefed about it by the Justice Department but also insisted he didn’t “want to know about it.”

“I could know about it. I could be the one starting it. I’m actually the chief law enforcement officer. But I feel that it’s better this way,” Trump said.

Bolton had said in interviews in the last few months that he was mindful that he could scrutinized, telling the AP in January shortly before Trump took office, “Anybody who ever disagrees with Trump has to worry about retribution. It’s a pretty long list.”

“It’s been a long time since people used to talk about Richard Nixon’s enemies list. But that seems to be Trump’s approach. And so it’s uncharted territory in many respects,” Bolton said.

Bolton was in his office building at the time

Bolton was not home for the search of his home, but after it started, he was spotted Friday morning standing in the lobby of the Washington building where he keeps an office and talking to two people with “FBI” visible on their vests. He left a few minutes later and appeared to have gone upstairs in the building. Agents were seen taking bags into the office building through a back entrance.

Messages left with a spokesperson for Bolton were not immediately returned, and a lawyer who has represented Bolton had no immediate comment.

The Justice Department had no comment, but leaders appeared to cryptically refer to the search of Bolton’s home in a series of social media posts Friday morning.

Patel posted on X: “NO ONE is above the law… @FBI agents on mission.” Attorney General Pam Bondi shared his post, adding: “America’s safety isn’t negotiable. Justice will be pursued. Always.”

The Justice Department is separately conducting mortgage fraud investigations into Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff of California and New York Attorney General Letitia James, who brought a civil fraud lawsuit against Trump and his company, and ex-Trump prosecutor Jack Smith faces an investigation from an independent watchdog office. Schiff and James have vigorously denied any wrongdoing through their lawyers.

Trump and Bolton have been at odds for years

Bolton served as Trump’s third national security adviser for 17 months and clashed with him over Iran, Afghanistan and North Korea.

He faced scrutiny during the first Trump administration over a book he wrote about his time in government that officials argued disclosed classified information. To make its case, the Justice Department in 2020 submitted sworn statements from senior White House officials, including then-National Security Agency Director Paul Nakasone, asserting that Bolton’s manuscript included classified information that could harm national security if exposed.

Bolton’s lawyers have said he moved forward with the book after a White House National Security Council official, with whom Bolton had worked for months, said the manuscript no longer contained classified information.

The Justice Department in 2021 abandoned its lawsuit and dropped a separate grand jury investigation, with Bolton’s lawyer calling the effort to block the book “politically motivated” and illegitimate.

Bolton’s harshly critical book, “The Room Where It Happened,” portrayed Trump as grossly ill-informed about foreign policy and said he “saw conspiracies behind rocks, and remained stunningly uninformed on how to run the White House, let alone the huge federal government.”

Trump responded by slamming Bolton as a “crazy” war-monger who would have led the country into “World War Six.”

Bolton served as US ambassador to the United Nations under President George W. Bush and also held positions in President Ronald Reagan’s administration. He considered running for president in 2012 and 2016.

Trump, on his first day back in office this year, revoked the security clearances of more than four dozen former intelligence officials, including Bolton. Bolton was also among a group of former Trump officials whose security details were canceled by Trump earlier this year.

In 2022, an Iranian operative was charged in a plot to kill Bolton in presumed retaliation for a 2020 US airstrike that killed the country’s most powerful general.

The handling of classified information by top government officials has been a politically loaded topic in recent years. Besides Trump, the Justice Department also investigated whether then-President Joe Biden, a Democrat, mishandled classified information after serving as vice president in the Obama administration, and the FBI also recovered what it said were classified documents from the home of former Trump Vice President Mike Pence. Neither man was charged.


Ex-army officer accused of ‘rules breach’ in Israeli firm’s bid for $2bn UK contract

Ex-army officer accused of ‘rules breach’ in Israeli firm’s bid for $2bn UK contract
Updated 22 August 2025
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Ex-army officer accused of ‘rules breach’ in Israeli firm’s bid for $2bn UK contract

Ex-army officer accused of ‘rules breach’ in Israeli firm’s bid for $2bn UK contract
  • Former brigadier was hired by Elbit Systems UK, which is competing to run the training program he had previously overseen, according to report in The Times
  • Whistleblower sent dossier of evidence to UK defense ministry showing he attended meetings on the bid before ‘cooling-off period expired’ 

LONDON: A former British army officer shared information with a subsidiary of Israel’s largest arms manufacturer as it prepared to bid for a £2 billion government defense contract, The Times newspaper reported.

Brig. Philip Kimber broke Ministry of Defence rules by attending meetings at Elbit Systems UK in the weeks after he left the army, according to a dossier sent to the ministry by a whistleblower and seen by The Times. 

Kimber attended a meeting at the firm on how to win a major contract for a training program that he had led before he left the army, the article alleges.

An MoD investigation found Elbit had gained no commercial advantage and could continue to participate in the bidding process.

Elbit Systems UK is part of a consortium in the running for a 15-year contract to operate the Collective Training Transformation Programme to overhaul army training. A decision on the contract is expected imminently.

Kimber, who was the training program’s director, left the army in September 2022 and was recruited by Elbit the following month.

He was hired by Elbit to deliver the contract if and when the company won it.

The report said he had signed a business appointments letter, which stated he “will not be involved in CTTP” until after a cooling-off period expired in June 2023.

The dossier included 19 incidents where the whistleblower claimed Kimber attended meetings about the bid in breach of the MoD’s business appointment rules. 

Elbit Systems UK told The Times that it follows the requirements and procedures advised by the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments “regarding our employees who have served in the UK armed forces.”

The MoD said: “The individual was not employed by the army at the time of the contract advert, pre-qualification questionnaire or invitation to negotiate. The competition for the army’s Collective Training Transformation Programme remains ongoing and no commercial advantage has been gained by any company. We follow strict procurement protocols to ensure fairness, value for taxpayers, and adherence to regulations.”

Francis Tusa, a defense analyst, told The Times: “A dossier of emails and WhatsApp appear to show a crucial — and questionable — overlap between the months after the departure of the senior officer who was running CTTP and him actively advising Elbit about that program when he was under certain restrictions. If the dossier’s dates do stack up, I can’t understand the MoD’s ‘nothing to see here’ approach — it would seem to me to be a clear breach of the rules.”

Elbit Systems UK has been targeted by pro-Palestinian activists because it is a subsidiary of Israel’s Elbit Systems, which provides large quantities of weapons used in the Gaza war.


India moves to strengthen ties with Russia, China amid Trump’s tariff war

India moves to strengthen ties with Russia, China amid Trump’s tariff war
Updated 22 August 2025
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India moves to strengthen ties with Russia, China amid Trump’s tariff war

India moves to strengthen ties with Russia, China amid Trump’s tariff war
  • Narendra Modi meets Chinese FM, Indian FM visits Russia
  • Delhi, Moscow agree to strengthen trade ties, boost Indian exports

NEW DELHI: In the wake of US President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs on Indian goods, New Delhi has moved to rebuild ties with Beijing while continuing its close energy and defense partnership with Russia, moves that experts say carry strategic opportunities.

After a yearslong standoff between India and China over a deadly clash at their disputed border, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in the Indian capital on Monday for a two-day visit and talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar.

Modi hailed the improved relations with Beijing and said after the meeting that the “steady progress” they made was “guided by respect for each other’s interests and sensitivities.”

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The two sides also agreed to resume direct flights between China and India to help boost trade and investment, facilitate business and cultural exchanges, and recommence the issuing of journalist and tourist visas.

The thaw in relations comes after Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on Indian goods, 25 percent of which was a penalty for India buying Russian oil, which Washington said was helping fuel Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

The Indian government said the tariffs were “unjustified and unreasonable” and vowed to “take all necessary steps to protect its national interests.”

The progress in India-China relations was followed by Jaishankar’s three-day visit to Moscow, which ended on Thursday and resulted in the two sides agreeing to boost trade ties.

In a joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Jaishankar said that relations between the two countries had been “among the steadiest of the major relationships in the world” since World War II.

The sides reaffirmed their ambition to expand two-way trade, including an increase in Indian exports to Russia.

“This requires swiftly addressing non-tariff barriers and regulatory impediments,” Jaishankar said.

“Enhancing Indian exports to Russia in sectors like pharmaceuticals, agriculture and textiles will certainly help to correct the current imbalance.”

Harsh V. Pant, vice president at Delhi-based think tank Observer Research Foundation, said that while India’s engagements with Russia and China had started before Trump’s global tariff campaign, it had acted as a catalyst.

“What Trump seems to have done is to create a sentiment against America in India and to accelerate India’s ties with these countries,” he told Arab News.

International affairs expert Mohan Guruswamy said that Delhi’s efforts to strengthen ties with China and Russia would assure “India of its strategic independence.”

“By associating with America, it lost it. And associating with America has proved to be expensive,” he told Arab News.

Bharat Karnad, a political scientist and emeritus professor at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi, said India’s frayed ties with Washington were an opportunity for it “to rethink and repurpose (its) strategy.”

“America has always been an unreliable, untrustworthy partner to all its allies. It’s historically been the case that America helps only when its own interests are served and not when the allies’ interests are at stake,” he told Arab News.

This was an opportunity for Modi’s government to support de-dollarization efforts that had been pursued by the BRICS geopolitical forum, which includes India, Russia and China, he said.

“This is the time, and there are still some indications that we are working toward precisely the kinds of BRICS initiative to de-dollarize trade.

“Rather than become captive of the US or Western or any other … trading system, we should have the independence and the flexibility to switch to serve our national interests.”


Niger army says it killed a senior Boko Haram leader in a targeted airstrike

Niger army says it killed a senior Boko Haram leader in a targeted airstrike
Updated 22 August 2025
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Niger army says it killed a senior Boko Haram leader in a targeted airstrike

Niger army says it killed a senior Boko Haram leader in a targeted airstrike
  • Boko Haram began its insurgency in Nigeria in 2009, causing around 35,000 civilian deaths and displacing more than 2 million people
DAKAR, Senegal: The army in Niger says it used a targeted airstrike to kill a senior leader of the Boko Haram jihadi group, which has killed thousands of people in West Africa.
Ibrahim Bakoura was killed in an Aug. 15 strike in the Lake Chad region that killed “dozens of terrorists” and Boko Haram senior leaders, the army claimed in a state television broadcast Thursday. Bakoura, who was in his mid-40s, was “tracked for several weeks” before the strike, the army said.
Boko Haram, a homegrown group of jihadis from neighboring Nigeria that is considered one of the world’s deadliest armed groups, took up arms in 2009 to fight Western education and impose their radical version of Islamic law.
The conflict has spilled into Nigeria’s northern neighbors, including Niger, and resulted in the death of around 35,000 civilians and the displacement of more than 2 million others, according to the United Nations.
There should be skepticism about reports of senior militant deaths, said Wassim Nasr, a Sahel specialist and senior research fellow at the Soufan Center security think tank. He noted Bakoura has been reported dead at least three times in the past and governments have limited capacity to verify remote airstrikes.
Boko Haram split into two factions in the ensuing power struggle after the 2021 death of the group’s longtime leader, Abubakar Shekau, who was falsely reported dead several times. Bakoura came to power in 2022.
One faction is backed by the Daesh group and is known as the Islamic State West Africa Province, or ISWAP. It has become notorious for targeting military positions and has overrun the military in Nigeria on at least 15 occasions in 2025, killing soldiers and stealing weapons, according to an Associated Press count, experts and security reports.
The other faction, Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS), also known as Boko Haram, has increasingly resorted to attacking civilians and perceived collaborators and thrives on robberies and abductions for ransom.
Bakoura’s killing is the latest blow to the network of armed groups in the region in recent weeks following the arrests of top Al-Qaeda affiliated leaders in Nigeria and the son of Boko Haram’s founder in Chad.
Experts say there is a renewed response from intelligence agencies in west and central African countries whose security leaderships have suffered embarrassing loses to armed groups this year.
“What the constant attacks did was cause military and security leaders embarrassment because it got to a point soldiers were running away on sighting ISWAP advances. The attacks inspired renewed response by militaries across the region,” said Taiwo Adebayo, a security researcher at the Institute of Security Studies.
The arrest and killing of top leaders will translate to material gains in the regional fight against insecurity if the government in Niger ensures the groups do not carry out retaliatory attacks or rejuvenate elsewhere, Adebayo said.