The EU presidency says Europe must rearm within 5 years

BRUSSELS: Russia could pose a credible security threat to the European Union by the end of the decade and defense industries in Europe and Ukraine must be ramped up within five years in preparation, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned on Tuesday.

In a speech to the European Parliament marking the launch of Denmark’s six-month term as holder of the EU presidency, Frederiksen lamented that “cutting our defense spending in the past 30 years was a huge mistake.”

European officials have warned that President Vladimir Putin could soon try to test NATO’s Article 5 security guarantee — the pledge that an attack on any one ally would be met with a collective response from all 32. Most of the allies are EU countries.

Russia has been accused of acts of sabotage, cyberattacks and fake news campaigns – largely to weaken European support for Ukraine – and while Europe is not at war, it is not at peace either, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has said.

“Strengthening Europe’s defense industry is an absolute top priority, and we have to be able to defend ourselves by 2030 at the latest,” Frederiksen told EU lawmakers in Strasbourg, France. “Never, ever should we allow Europe to be put in a position again where we cannot defend ourselves.”

Many European leaders insist they have heard the Trump administration’s warning that American security priorities now lie elsewhere – in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific – but Europe’s effort to arm is moving only slowly.

When NATO’s ambitions are not enough

At a key summit last month, NATO leaders endorsed a statement saying: “Allies commit to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defense requirements as well as defense- and security-related spending by 2035 to ensure our individual and collective obligations.”

That historic pledge will require them to spend tens of billions of euros (dollars) more over the coming decade, not five years. Spain – NATO’s lowest spender with 1.28% of GDP last year – quickly branded the target “unreasonable.”

Belgium has cast doubt over whether it will make the grade. Slovenia is considering a referendum. Heavyweights France and Italy are mired in economic woes and will struggle to get there too.

Money spent on military support to Ukraine can now be included in NATO’s defense calculations, but even that will not hike the GDP military spend by much.

The EU’s Readiness 2030 plan

With the threat of Russian aggression in mind, the EU’s executive branch has come up with a security plan. It hinges on a 150-billion-euro ($176 billion) loan program that member countries, Ukraine and outsiders like Britain could dip into.

It aims to fill gaps that the U.S. might leave. Spending priorities for joint purchase include air and missile defense systems, artillery, ammunition, drones, equipment for use in cyber and electronic warfare, and “strategic enablers” like air-to-air refueling and transport.

On Tuesday, 15 EU countries were permitted to take advantage of another measure — a “national escape clause” — to allow them to spend more on defense without breaking the bloc’s debt rules.

Beefing up Ukraine ’s defense industry is also a pillar. The country produces arms and ammunition faster and more cheaply than its EU partners. Kyiv estimates that 40% more of its industrial capacity could be exploited if Europe were to invest.

Still, ambition is one thing, and the reality another.

“Things are not moving fast enough to be able to defend ourselves in 5 years,” Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told reporters last week. “It’s a huge, huge challenge to reach that goal.”

On the need to take risks

A big part of the problem is that governments and the defense industry are stuck in old ways of thinking and neither wants to take a risk, even with Europe’s biggest land war in many decades still raging in its fourth year.

“You cannot expect industry to invest in production capacity if you don’t have long-term orders,” said Joachim Finkielman, the director of Danish Defense and Security Industries.

“If you need to build new factories, if you need to engage a larger workforce, you need to make sure that you have that,” he told The Associated Press on Friday.

Demand for 155mm artillery shells is a typical example, Finkielman said. “When you see the kinds of orders that have been placed around Europe, it is two to three years out in time,” he said, while industry needs five to 10 years’ worth of orders to take a chance.

Finkielman said that if governments and industries in Britain, France, Germany and Italy start to move, “the rest will follow.”

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been emboldened by the war in Ukraine
South Korean lawmaker Lee Seong-kweun told reporters that “around 5,000 North Korean construction troops have been moving to Russia in phases since September

SEOUL: North Korea has sent about 5,000 construction troops to Russia since September to help with “infrastructure reconstruction,” a South Korean lawmaker said Tuesday after a briefing by Seoul’s spy agency.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been emboldened by the war in Ukraine, securing critical support from Moscow after sending thousands of troops to fight alongside Russian forces.
South Korean lawmaker Lee Seong-kweun told reporters that “around 5,000 North Korean construction troops have been moving to Russia in phases since September and are expected to be mobilized for infrastructure reconstruction.”
He added that “continued signs of training and personnel selection in preparation for additional troop deployments have been detected.”
The spy agency told lawmakers that about 10,000 North Korean troops were estimated to be currently deployed near the Russia-Ukraine border, according to Lee.
At least 600 North Korean soldiers have died in the Ukraine war and thousands more sustained injuries, according to South Korean estimates.
Analysts say North Korea is receiving financial aid, military technology, and food and energy supplies from Russia in return for sending troops.
That has allowed it to sidestep tough international sanctions imposed over its nuclear and missile programs that were once a crucial bargaining chip for the United States.

- US talks -

Since Kim’s 2019 summit with US President Donald Trump collapsed over the scope of denuclearization and sanctions relief, Pyongyang has repeatedly declared itself an “irreversible” nuclear state.
Pyongyang did not respond to Trump’s offer to meet with Kim last week, and instead its Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui headed to Moscow, where she and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to strengthen bilateral ties.
Lee said Seoul’s spy agency believes Kim was open to talks with Washington “and will seek contact when the conditions are in place.”
Although the proposed meeting with Trump did not materialize, “multiple signs suggest” that Pyongyang “had been preparing behind the scenes for possible talks with the US,” said the lawmaker.
In September, Kim appeared alongside Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin at an elaborate military parade in Beijing — a striking display of his new, elevated status in global politics.
An international sanctions monitoring group, the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, said in a report last month that North Korea was planning to send “40,000 laborers to Russia, including several delegations of IT workers.”
Under UN sanctions, North Korean workers are prohibited from earning money abroad.

The EU presidency says Europe must rearm within 5 years