Lebanon marks 20 years since Rafic Hariri killed as power balance shifts

Cars drive past a giant billboard bearing a portrait of Lebanon’s slain fromer premier Rafiq Hariri (L) and his son Saad Hariri, also a former prime minister, in central Beirut on February 13, 2025, on the eve of the 20th anniversary of Rafiq Hariri’s assassination. (AFP)

• A UN-backed court sentenced two Hezbollah members in absentia to life imprisonment for the massive suicide bombing that killed him and 21 others

BEIRUT: Lebanon on Friday marked 20 years since former prime minister Rafic Hariri’s assassination, with seismic political changes underway that have weakened Hezbollah and its backers and could herald a comeback for Hariri’s son Saad.
Rafic Hariri, a towering political figure who oversaw Lebanon’s reconstruction era after the 1975-1990 civil war, had recently resigned as premier when he was killed on February 14, 2005.
In 2022, a UN-backed court sentenced two Hezbollah members in absentia to life imprisonment for the massive suicide bombing that killed him and 21 others, though the group has refused to hand them over.
His son Saad, who served three times as prime minister, is based in the United Arab Emirates but has again returned for the annual commemorations.
This time, he is back in a changed Lebanon.
The commemoration comes days before the deadline for implementing a Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire, which ended more than a year of hostilities that weakened the group.
Concerns have mounted for the fragile truce after Beirut rejected Israel’s demand to remain in five southern locations after the February 18 deadline.
But Hezbollah still carries weight, with supporters Thursday blocking the airport road after two Iranian planes were barred from landing.
A day earlier, Israel’s army had accused Iran of sending funds to arm the group through the Beirut airport.
On Friday morning, a few thousand Hariri supporters carrying Lebanese flags gathered near his father’s burial site in downtown Beirut.
“For the first time in 20 years, our joy is double: first because the Syrian regime fell... and second because Sheikh Saad is among us,” homemaker Diana Al-Masri, 52, told AFP.
A source close to Hariri said he was due to give a speech addressing developments “in Lebanon and the region,” though he may not resume political activities right away.
“His supporters are calling on him to return to political life,” said the source, requesting anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media.
Until early 2022, Hariri was the main Sunni Muslim leader in a country where political power is shared along sectarian lines.
Once enjoying strong support from Saudi Arabia, Hariri’s relationship with the regional heavyweight deteriorated because of his conciliatory attitude toward Hezbollah.
In 2017, Hariri resigned as premier in a shock address from Riyadh, citing Iran’s “grip” on Lebanon through Hezbollah and prompting accusations he was being held against his will.
French President Emmanuel Macron had to intervene to secure his return to Lebanon, where Hariri rescinded his resignation.
He resigned again as prime minister after nationwide protests in 2019 demanding the wholesale overhaul of Lebanon’s political class.
In a tearful 2022 announcement, he said he had suspended his political activities and those of his party, citing “Iranian influence” among other reasons.
The source told AFP that all these reasons had now “vanished.”
For decades, Hezbollah was Lebanon’s dominant political force, but its arsenal and leadership were decimated during its war with Israel, while Syrian ally Bashar Assad’s ouster cut the group’s vital arms supply lines.
’New chance’
In January, former army chief Joseph Aoun was elected president after a more than two-year vacuum.
He was widely seen as the United States and Saudi Arabia’s preferred choice.
This month, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who had been presiding judge at the International Criminal Court, formed a government. On Friday, Salam visited Rafic Hariri’s tomb to pay his respects.
“Lebanon has been given a new chance as Iranian influence is declining and the international community has returned,” the source said.
Riyadh has recently retaken an interest in Lebanese politics after distancing itself for years over Hezbollah’s influence.
“Saudi Arabia seeks a strong, organized Sunni leadership,” said Imad Salamey, head of the International and Political Studies Department at the Lebanese American University.
“If (Saad) Hariri can present himself as that figure, his return would serve both his interests and those of the kingdom.”
His father’s assassination anniversary “will serve as an opportunity to assess his ability to mobilize support and reassert his leadership within the Sunni community,” Salamey added.
Hariri was thrust into the political limelight following his father’s murder, widely attributed to Damascus and Hezbollah at the time, which triggered massive protests that drove Syrian troops out of Lebanon after 29 years of occupation.
Rafic Hariri was a billionaire and the architect of Lebanon’s reconstruction era after the 1975-1990 civil war.
Hezbollah, meanwhile, is desperate to prove it has not lost ground to political rivals.
After the airport protests, authorities said they were working to bring back Lebanese passengers stranded in Iran using two Middle East Airlines planes.
But on Friday a source from the national carrier told AFP that Tehran had denied them permission to land in a tit-for-tat move.
Israel has repeatedly accused Hezbollah of using Lebanon’s only airport to transfer weapons from Iran, claims the group and Lebanese officials have denied, with the army reinforcing security measures there in past months.