Pakistan’s new Kabul and Delhi options may hinge on what Trump does next
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Pakistan’s relations with its two main neighbors – Afghanistan and India – remain as bad if not worse at the start of 2025, as they were in 2024. Are there prospects of improvement in these two bilateral relationships in the new year? Strangely enough, that may partly depend on what Trump 2.0 wants from China and the political inevitabilities that may stem from it, including intentional or unintended fallout for South Asia.
Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan and India have been historically complex and fraught with tension. The key irritant in the Pakistan-India relationship is the longstanding dispute over Kashmir – a region claimed by both Islamabad and New Delhi but divided among them for over seven decades, continues to be a major point of contention and has resulted in at least two wars.
Bilateral ties became especially bitter after India amended its constitution in 2019 changing the autonomous status of Kashmir. This move was seen by Pakistan as a violation of the Simla Agreement and past UN resolutions. For over five years neither country has had an ambassador in each other’s capitals. Despite new governments in New Delhi and Islamabad elected in 2024, there has been no significant improvement in bilateral ties. Prime ministers and army chiefs of both countries have in recent weeks made hostile statements that have blunted the hope of new beginnings.
Key irritants in the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship include Islamabad’s involvement in Afghanistan’s affairs first in siding with the US against Soviet occupation in the last century and a messy ‘frenemy’ approach against US invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11 this century. Against expectations, the Taliban takeover of Kabul in 2021 resulted in a negative impact on Pakistan’s internal politics, security and economy due to its coercive militaristic posture toward Kabul. A wave of terrorism in regions bordering Afghanistan over the course of 2024 targeting and claiming the lives of hundreds of security forces personnel in Pakistan, have vitiated ties with Kabul further.
With Trump advocating for no support for conflicts like the Kashmir dispute, Pakistan may be tempted to soften its Kashmir-centric policy with India.
Adnan Rehmat
But there’s a sense in Islamabad that the status quo can’t prevail. Enter Trump. The president’s inauguration speech this month emphasized a radical shift in US foreign policy. His administration intends to assert greater pressure on China, focusing on trade and political domains, while moving away from involvement in wars and conflicts globally. This shift, if it materializes, has significant implications for South Asia, where China plays a central role with its strategic partnership with Pakistan and frosty ties with India. The new pro-China and India-wary governments in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh further complicate the regional dynamics.
Paradoxically, this offers a door into addressing Pakistan’s stalemate in ties with Kabul and Delhi even if unwittingly. The recalibration of US foreign policy toward China presents an opportunity for Pakistan and India to rethink their own stalemate. With Trump advocating for no support for conflicts like the Kashmir dispute, Pakistan may be tempted to soften its Kashmir-centric policy with India.
There may be increasing pressure from Washington on Islamabad to soften its strategic engagement in China’s One Belt One Road Initiative of which the $50 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor is a key component. This will certainly unsettle Islamabad but could create incentives for the resumption of diplomatic dialogue with its fellow nuclear neighbor India to ease this pressure.
Similarly, Pakistan’s militaristic posture toward Afghanistan may need to be replaced with a political dialogue. One indication that this may be on the way is how the military leadership in Pakistan initiated discussions this month with political leaders to repair ties with Kabul, thereby taking a backseat in managing the country’s Afghanistan policy. This approach can help address the underlying issues and create a more stable and cooperative relationship between the two countries.
And yet the recalibration of its neighborhood foreign policy by Pakistan will be neither easy nor necessarily welcome by either Delhi or Kabul. Both of Islamabad’s neighbors may need to be themselves adversely impacted by Trumpian policies for the right incentives to emerge to recalibrate their own policies vis-à-vis Washington’s posture on Beijing and how it will spill over into South Asia.
This then leaves Trump to determine a possible shift in South Asia’s foreign policy even if his gaze is fixed only on China without even the sub-continent in its crosshairs. Meanwhile, South Asia will have to hold its breath on where to go from here as Trump sets up his new foreign policy shop.
- Adnan Rehmat is a Pakistan-based journalist, researcher and analyst with interests in politics, media, development and science.