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Myanmar’s steady descent into chaos has sparked deep concerns throughout Southeast Asia, with fears that the country may now be on the brink of collapse. As the conflict intensifies, the repercussions for Myanmar’s neighbors and the broader ASEAN region are becoming impossible to ignore. The growing insecurity, worsening humanitarian crisis, and military setbacks for the junta have prompted urgent diplomatic overtures. However, the challenges on the ground and the political dynamics surrounding Myanmar suggest that regional efforts may struggle to reverse the tide.
This week, Myanmar’s junta leaders have been invited to two high-stakes summits in Bangkok. These meetings are a reflection of the growing alarm in neighboring capitals as the Tatmadaw — Myanmar’s military regime — finds itself in retreat on multiple fronts. Despite the facade of authority maintained by Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the junta is losing ground militarily and politically. Resistance forces such as the Arakan Army and other ethnic armed groups have capitalized on the junta’s weaknesses, making significant territorial gains and shifting the balance of power in Myanmar’s fragmented conflict.
The military’s weakening grip on power is particularly evident in Rakhine State, where the Arakan Army now controls vast swaths of territory. From its origins as a marginal insurgency, the Arakan Army has emerged as one of the most formidable forces in Myanmar’s civil war, establishing its own administrative structures and consolidating local support. The junta, long accustomed to suppressing such movements with brute force, has struggled to contain the Arakan Army’s advance. The Tatmadaw’s overstretched forces are facing growing resistance across Myanmar’s ethnic states and urban centers, leading to speculation that the regime may ultimately be unable to sustain its rule.
As the military loses ground, the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate. Ethnic minorities and vulnerable communities, particularly the Rohingya in Rakhine State, are paying the heaviest price for the junta’s desperation. Caught between the military and the advancing Arakan Army, the Rohingya have become targets for forcible recruitment, forced displacement, and violence. Both sides have been accused of pressuring Rohingya civilians to join their ranks or suffer reprisals. Already marginalized and stateless, the Rohingya’s plight has only deepened amid the intensifying conflict.
The growing instability in Myanmar poses significant risks for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its member states. As Myanmar slides further toward collapse, neighboring countries — Thailand, Bangladesh, China, and India — face the prospect of increased refugee flows, cross-border violence, and economic disruption. Thailand’s decision to host two summits focused on Myanmar reflects its immediate concerns over border security and humanitarian fallout. The meetings in Bangkok are intended to forge a unified regional response to Myanmar’s crisis, yet the likelihood of substantive progress remains slim.
For ASEAN, Myanmar’s unraveling presents a critical test of the bloc’s relevance and credibility. The group’s longstanding principle of non-interference has been increasingly scrutinized as Myanmar’s conflict threatens regional stability. Thus far, ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus — agreed in April 2021 — has failed to produce meaningful results, as the junta remains uncooperative and unrepentant. Regional leaders now find themselves at a crossroads, forced to consider stronger measures to address the crisis.
Myanmar’s collapse is no longer a distant possibility; it is a looming reality with serious consequences for the region.
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
With Malaysia assuming a more prominent role in ASEAN under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, there is growing pressure on Kuala Lumpur to help move the situation forward. Ibrahim, known for his vocal support of human rights, has previously expressed solidarity with the Rohingya and criticized the junta’s actions in Myanmar. His government has an opportunity to inject fresh momentum into ASEAN’s efforts and push for a more decisive response.
Malaysia’s leadership will be crucial in navigating the region’s divided approach to Myanmar. While some ASEAN members, such as Indonesia and Singapore, have been critical of the junta, others — notably Thailand — have maintained more pragmatic relationships, engaging with the regime to protect their immediate interests. Ibrahim’s challenge will be to build consensus among ASEAN’s member states while advocating for stronger measures against the junta and greater humanitarian support for Myanmar’s people.
As Myanmar’s conflict escalates, the Rohingya’s suffering has faded from global attention, despite their persecution. More than one million Rohingya refugees remain stranded in overcrowded camps in Bangladesh, where resources are dwindling, and conditions are deteriorating. The renewed violence in Rakhine State has dashed any immediate hopes of safe repatriation, while the Rohingya inside Myanmar face increasing danger.
Both the junta and the Arakan Army have treated the Rohingya as expendable, forcing them to navigate impossible choices: Join the fight or flee once again. The international community’s failure to address the root causes of the Rohingya crisis — including their lack of citizenship and systemic persecution — has left this vulnerable community at the mercy of Myanmar’s warring factions.
Myanmar’s collapse is no longer a distant possibility; it is a looming reality with serious consequences for the region. The summits in Bangkok represent a critical opportunity for ASEAN to demonstrate leadership and push for concrete solutions. However, diplomatic overtures alone will not be enough. ASEAN must recognize that the junta’s military decline has changed the political landscape in Myanmar. Any lasting resolution will require engagement with the full spectrum of actors, including the National Unity Government, ethnic armed organizations and civil society groups.
Malaysia, under Ibrahim’s leadership, has a chance to redefine ASEAN’s approach and prioritize the needs of Myanmar’s people over the junta’s interests. This includes increasing humanitarian aid, holding the junta accountable for its crimes, and addressing the Rohingya’s plight as an integral part of any peace process.
The alternative — allowing Myanmar to spiral further into chaos — will have catastrophic consequences not only for its people but for the entire region. As Myanmar teeters on the brink, ASEAN’s response will be judged by its ability to act decisively in the face of crisis. The time for bold and coordinated action is now.
• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC.
X: @AzeemIbrahim