Pakistan stocks breach record 105,000 barrier on rate cut hopes

Stockbrokers watch an index board showing the latest share prices during a trading session at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in Karachi, Pakistan, on September 20, 2021. (AFP/ File)

• State Bank has already slashed interest rates by 700 basis points in four consecutive meetings since June
• Poll by Topline Securities says 71 percent participants expect central bank will announce rate cut of 200bps

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani stocks continued their record-breaking streak on Wednesday, closing above 105,000 points for the first time on the back of investor confidence of a significant interest rate cut by the central bank at the next monetary policy meeting on Dec. 16.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index climbed 544.26 points, or 0.52 percent, to close at a record 105,104.33 points when trading ended on Wednesday. During the intraday trading earlier, the KSE-100 benchmark reached a record high of 105,473.56 points.

 Wednesday’s session follows Tuesday’s impressive gains, with the market closing at 104,559.07, adding 1,284 points.

The State Bank has already slashed interest rates by 700 basis points (bps) in four consecutive meetings since June, bringing the rate to 15 percent.

According to a poll conducted by Topline Securities, 71 percent of participants expect the central bank will announce a minimum rate cut of 200bps.

“Out of the 71 percent, 63 percent expect the interest rate to be cut by 200bps, 30 percent expect a cut of 250bps, and 7.0 percent anticipate a cut of more than 250bps,” the poll said. 

Market analysts credit the rally in stocks to improving macroeconomic indicators, strong trade performance, and the anticipation of further monetary easing. 

Pakistan’s annual consumer inflation slowed to 4.9 percent in November, lower than the government’s forecast and the lowest in nearly six years. This is down from 38 percent last year.

Trade data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics also supports positive investor sentiment as the trade deficit narrowed by 7.39 percent during the first five months (July-November) of the current fiscal year, standing at $8.651 billion, compared to $9.341 billion during the same period last year.

Exports rose by 12.57 percent to hit $13.69 billion, while imports increased by 3.90 percent to $22.342 billion during this period. November’s trade deficit narrowed even further, dropping by 18.60 percent year-on-year to $1.589 billion compared to $1.952 billion in November 2023.