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The migration dynamics between Europe and Africa have evolved into one of the most pressing socioeconomic challenges of the 21st century, fueled by a complex mesh of historical ties, socioeconomic disparities, political instability, conflict and, lately, worsening environmental crises.
Europe’s struggle to cope with an aging population and its associated economic demands contrasts sharply with Africa’s burgeoning youth demographic, which promises both potential and pressure. Yet, instead of addressing the root causes pushing African migrants toward Europe, current policies seem narrowly focused on creating a “Fortress Europe,” with North African countries bearing the brunt as barriers to migration flows.
The EU’s strategy has largely been shaped by immediate security concerns, political pressures and a perceived need to control its borders. This fortification approach manifests in questionable deals with North African countries, offering financial and logistical support in exchange for the containment of migrants. For example, the infamous 2016 EU-Turkiye deal significantly curbed the influx of migrants via the Eastern Mediterranean, prompting similar strategies with countries like Libya and Morocco. Nonetheless, these policies often fail to offer sustainable solutions, instead perpetuating a cycle of humanitarian crises and instability in “transit regions” like North Africa.
Yet, upon closer examination, Europe’s insistence on building higher walls rather than addressing the myriad “push factors” of migration reflects a fundamental miscalculation. Migration is not just a security issue, it is also humanitarian, economic and political. The influx of migrants to Europe has been driven by myriad factors — such as climate change, political instability and economic despair — and a simplistic fortress mentality is merely reactionary, targeting symptoms, not the core issues. As a result, Europe is ill-prepared to deal with the effects of the projected 85 million displaced people from sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, according to the International Organization for Migration.
Moreover, Europe’s demographic predicament, with a shrinking workforce and rising dependency ratio, necessitates a pragmatic solution-oriented approach to migration. Instead of viewing African migrants purely as a security threat, there is potential in seeing migration as an opportunity to address labor shortages. Yet, this potential remains untapped as long as policies emphasize deterrence over constructive engagement. Europe’s focus on fortification overlooks the benefits of channeling migration through legal, managed avenues that could bolster the continent’s own economic stability while aiding African development.
A realistic and humane approach requires comprehensive policies that focus on collaboration and development. The notion of transforming North Africa into a buffer zone is emblematic of Europe’s strategy to externalize its border issues. This tactic essentially shifts the burden onto African countries without addressing the underlying drivers of migration. Instead, collaborative development programs that invest in African economies, create jobs and stabilize regions would mitigate the impetus for migration.
To understand how a new EU commission could impact migration policies, one must first grasp the role and influence of the European Commission. As the executive branch of the EU, the commission proposes legislation, enforces the bloc’s laws and sets policy directions. With a right-leaning tilt, the new commission is likely to be more supportive of restrictive migration policies. This political orientation tends to favor fortifying external borders and increasing deportations rather than seeking long-term solutions.
Instead of viewing African migrants purely as a security threat, there is potential in seeing migration as an opportunity.
Hafed Al-Ghwell
However, doubling down on such myopic policies ignores the complex realities driving migration. North African countries like Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria are increasingly acting as both transit and destination points for sub-Saharan migrants. These countries are shifting toward “security-first” policies due to rising public dissatisfaction. This shift could undermine European efforts to externalize migration management, as North African governments and their citizens become less willing to serve as Europe’s border guards.
A more sustainable approach requires addressing root causes. Political instability, economic desperation and violence are significant drivers of migration from sub-Saharan Africa. Deteriorating conditions in West Africa and the Horn of Africa have intensified migratory pressures. Programs focused on economic development, job creation and regional stability would not only provide viable alternatives to migration but also foster goodwill and cooperation between Europe and Africa.
In practical terms, Europe could assist Maghreb governments by improving their domestic migration management systems. Tailored support in areas such as data collection, developing return processes and humanitarian assistance could partially alleviate the pressures these countries face. For instance, the significant increase in refugees and asylum seekers in Tunisia, from 87 in 2007 to more than 28,000 in early 2024, illustrates the urgent need for such support.
Finally, European policymakers should recognize the convergence of migration challenges facing both regions. Just as Europe has struggled with migration flows, North African countries are now experiencing similar pressures. This shared experience presents an opportunity for collaboration. By drawing on its own experiences, Europe can offer practical solutions to the Maghreb’s migration challenges, fostering a cooperative and humane approach to a shared dilemma.
Migration must be recognized not just as a sociopolitical challenge but as an economic opportunity that can reinvigorate Europe’s stagnating demographics and labor force. Europe’s aging population and labor shortages in essential sectors, from healthcare to engineering, reveal the economic necessity of a well-managed migration policy. By integrating migrants into the workforce, Europe can address labor market gaps, bolster pension funds and stimulate cultural and economic dynamism.
However, perceiving migrants predominantly as security threats not only dehumanizes them but also squanders this potential. The EU’s current policies, which heavily focus on reducing irregular migration and outsourcing responsibilities, often result in human rights abuses and fail to leverage the tangible benefits migrants can bring.
As evident from recent dialogues between African and European leaders, there is a clear mutual interest in creating legal pathways for migration that benefit both continents. This collaboration can provide Europe with much-needed labor while offering African migrants legal and safer routes. A strategic, humane approach to migration rooted in economic pragmatism and mutual benefits is not just a social imperative but a strategic one for Brussels, fostering stronger international partnerships and economic resilience.
In sum, while Ursula von der Leyen’s second term as European Commission president, which officially began on Sunday, represents a potential for change, solving the complex migration issues between Europe and Africa demands innovative and holistic approaches. The focus should be on addressing the root causes of migration by fostering stability, promoting economic growth, leveraging the benefits of migration and proactively combating issues like climate change and conflict. Only then can Europe and Africa hope to break the cycle of desperation and migration, ensuring a more stable and prosperous future for all involved.
• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC.
X: @HafedAlGhwell