Trump’s regional changes

One of the gravest mistakes that people make when dealing with US President-elect Donald Trump is underestimating his capabilities. The fact that he doesn’t speak the language of academia, doesn’t use the jargon of analysts, and isn’t known for the politeness or maneuvering of seasoned politicians doesn’t mean he has any less understanding or awareness of the issues at hand. His opponents have mocked him extensively, whether domestically, during his electoral campaign and partisan skirmishes, or internationally, as foreign commentators sought to tarnish his reputation.
Trump is not like Bill Clinton, a Yale graduate, nor like Joe Biden, with 50 years of experience navigating Congress and the world of politics. However, what he achieved when dealing with unfolding issues in the four years he governed the US was far more successful, by comparison.
When he threatened to cancel or renegotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran, he was met with refusal and told it was an international agreement from which he could not withdraw. He ripped it up entirely, altering the course of history in the region and saving it from the dangers of that flawed agreement.
Trump may not be as intellectual as Henry Kissinger or as humble as Jimmy Carter, but coming from a background in business, investment, and real estate plays to his advantage in a capitalist country like the US, which thrives on hard work, competition, and success. Trump demonstrated his leadership capabilities, most notably with his shock victory in his first presidential campaign, which he repeated, even more surprisingly, this month.
Unlike most previous American presidents, who relied on the support of their parties and PR campaign planners, Trump’s victories have been unique, in that they can largely be attributed to him personally — a testament to his popularity. And this enables him to make changes and decisions many others would not dare to.
Trump is geared to face numerous domestic battles, as he promised his supporters that he would make changes to immigration, the economy, and education, which will likely lead to many controversies during his upcoming four-year term.
What about the Middle East?
Let’s recall what he did at the beginning of his term in 2017. He decided to bypass protocol. Traditionally, Britain is the first overseas call for a new American president. Trump chose Riyadh. At the time, Saudi Arabia faced fierce criticism from US politicians, and Trump’s predecessor, President Barack Obama, had relegated the relationship with the Kingdom to the past of US diplomacy. Trump, despite having entered the elections amid accusations of racism against Arabs and Muslims, made a bold move which surprised everyone by choosing Saudi Arabia as his first stop. 

The final point worth examining is not how Trump views the world, but how the world views Trump.

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

That visit sent a message to adversarial politicians in Washington and to countries in the region. Over the next four years, the US-Saudi relationship progressed as Trump intended. When Biden succeeded him, he eventually followed Trump’s path.
When the president-elect claims he can resolve serious crises like Ukraine, and the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, we should believe it. With a majority in both houses, he has already begun reaching out before he officially assumes office on Jan. 20.
The final point worth examining is not how Trump views the world, but how the world views Trump. Internationally, he is seen as a strong personality, quick to act, and committed to his words. This image forces America’s adversaries to think twice before getting entangled with him in conflicts. Most would prefer to negotiate deals with him, given that he possesses both the will and the tools to push such deals through.
I believe Trump intends to reshape the Middle East his way. We will see this through agreements and sanctions, not wars. Indeed, as he repeatedly emphasizes, he governed for four years without waging a single war. He was firm in enforcing sanctions. The region must prepare for, and adapt to, the changes his second term will bring.

• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a Saudi journalist and intellectual. He is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya news channel and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article was originally published.
X: @aalrashed