Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say

Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say
Graves are seen in a residential area in Omdurman, Sudan, November 10, 2024. (REUTERS)
Short Url
Updated 14 November 2024
Follow

Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say

Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say
  • The estimate includes some 26,000 people who suffered violent deaths, a higher figure than one currently used by the United Nations

CAIRO/OMDURMAN: More than 61,000 people are estimated to have died in Khartoum state during the first 14 months of Sudan’s war, with evidence suggesting the toll from the devastating conflict is significantly higher than previously recorded, according to a new report by researchers in Britain and Sudan.
The estimate includes some 26,000 people who suffered violent deaths, a higher figure than one currently used by the United Nations for the entire country.
The preprint study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s Sudan Research Group, released on Wednesday before peer review, suggested that starvation and disease are increasingly becoming the leading causes of death reported across Sudan.
The estimated deaths from all causes in Khartoum state were at a rate 50 percent higher than the national average before the conflict between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces erupted in April 2023, researchers said. The UN says the conflict has driven 11 million people from their homes and unleashed the world’s biggest hunger crisis. Nearly 25 million people — half of Sudan’s population — need aid as famine has taken hold in at least one displacement camp.
But counting the dead has been challenging.
Even in peace time, many deaths are not registered in Sudan, researchers say. As fighting intensified, people were cut off from places that record deaths, including hospitals, morgues and cemeteries. Repeated disruptions to Internet services and telecommunications left millions unable to contact the outside world. The study “tried to capture that invisibility” using a sampling technique known as “capture-recapture”, said lead author Maysoon Dahab, an infectious disease epidemiologist and co-director of the Sudan Research Group.
Originally designed for ecological research, the technique has been used in published studies to estimate the number of people killed during pro-democracy protests in Sudan in 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic, when it was not possible to carry out full counts, she said.
Using data from at least two independent sources, researchers look for individuals who appear on multiple lists. The less overlap there is between the lists, the higher the chances that deaths have gone unrecorded, information that can be used to estimate the full number of deaths.
In this case, researchers compiled three lists of the dead. One was based on a public survey circulated via social media platforms between November 2023 and June 2024. The second used community activists and other “study ambassadors” to distribute the survey privately within their networks. And the third was compiled from obituaries posted on social media, a common practice in the cities of Khartoum, Omdurman and Bahri, which together make up the greater capital.
“Our findings suggest that deaths have largely gone undetected,” the researchers wrote.

UNCOUNTED TOLL
Deaths captured in the three lists made up just 5 percent of the estimated total for Khartoum state and 7 percent of those attributed to “intentional injury.” The findings suggest that other war-affected parts of the country could have experienced similar or worse tolls, the study said.
The researchers noted that their estimate of violent deaths in Khartoum state surpassed the 20,178 killings recorded across the country over the same period by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project (ACLED), a US-based crisis monitoring group.
ACLED’s data, which is based on reports from sources including news organizations, human rights groups and local authorities, has been cited by UN officials and other humanitarian workers.
Dahab said the researchers did not have sufficient data to estimate mortality levels in other parts of the country or determine how many deaths in all could be linked to the war.
The study also notes other limitations. The methodology used assumes that every death has an equal chance of showing up in the data, for example. However, well-known individuals and those who suffered violent deaths may have been more likely to be reported, the researchers said.
Paul Spiegel, who heads the Center for Humanitarian Health at the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and was not involved in the study, said there were issues with all three sources of data that could skew the estimates. But he said the researchers had factored such limitations into their methodology and analysis.
“While it is difficult to know how the various biases in this capture-recapture methodology could affect the overall numbers, it is a novel and important attempt to estimate the number of deaths and bring attention to this horrific war in Sudan,” he said.
An official with the Sudanese American Physicians Association, an organization that offers free health care across the country, said the findings appeared credible.
“The number might even be more,” its program manager, Abdulazim Awadalla, told Reuters, saying weakened immunity from malnutrition was making people more susceptible to infection.
“Simple diseases are killing people,” he said.
The study was funded by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

“WE BURIED HIM HERE“
Among the war’s many victims was Khalid Sanhouri, a musician whose death in Omdurman’s Mulazmeen neighborhood was announced on social media in July last year.
A neighbor, Mohammed Omar, told Reuters that friends and relatives were unable to get medical care for Sanhouri after he fell ill due to the intensity of the fighting at the time.
“There were no hospitals or pharmacies where we could get medicine, not even markets to buy food,” Omar said.
They couldn’t even reach the nearest graveyard.
“So, we buried him here,” Omar said, pointing to a grave just beyond the bullet-pocked wall surrounding the musician’s home.
Hundreds of graves have popped up next to homes across greater Khartoum since last year, residents say. With the return of the army to some neighborhoods, they have started relocating the bodies to Omdurman’s main cemetery.
There are as many as 50 burials a day there, undertaker Abdin Khidir told Reuters. The cemetery has expanded into an adjoining football field.
Still, the bodies keep coming, Khidir said.
The warring sides have traded blame for the growing toll.
Army spokesman Brig. Gen. Nabil Abdallah referred questions about the study’s estimates to the Ministry of Health but said: “The main cause of all this suffering is the terrorist Rapid Support militia (RSF), which has not hesitated from the first moment to target civilians.”
The health ministry said in a statement to Reuters that it has observed far fewer deaths than the estimates in the study. Its tally of war-related deaths stands at 5,565, it said.
The RSF did not dispute the study’s estimates, blaming the deaths in the capital on “deliberate air strikes on populated areas, in addition to artillery shelling and drone strikes.”
“It is known that the army is the only one with [such weapons],” it said in a statement to Reuters.
The war erupted from a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF ahead of a planned transition to civilian rule. The RSF quickly took over most of the capital and has now spread into at least half the country, though the military regained control of some neighborhoods in Omdurman and Bahri in recent months. Both sides have committed abuses that may amount to war crimes, including attacking civilians, a UN fact-finding mission said in September. The war has also produced ethnically driven violence in the western Darfur region blamed largely on the RSF.
However, the new report highlighted the significant and likely growing toll taken by the war’s indirect impacts, including hunger, disease and the collapse of health care.
Sick patients lined the hallways at Al-Shuhada hospital in Bahri, which has seen a spike in cases of malnutrition and diseases such as malaria, cholera and dengue fever.
Fresh fruits, vegetables and meat were hard to come by until the arrival of the army opened up supply routes, said hospital manager Hadeel Malek.
“As we all know, malnutrition leads to weak immunity in general,” she said. “This is one factor ... which led to many deaths, especially among pregnant women and children.”
Both sides deny impeding aid and commercial deliveries.


40 killed in central Sudan paramilitary attack on village

40 killed in central Sudan paramilitary attack on village
Updated 16 sec ago
Follow

40 killed in central Sudan paramilitary attack on village

40 killed in central Sudan paramilitary attack on village
PORT SUDAN: A medic on Wednesday said 40 people were killed “by gunshot wounds” during a paramilitary attack on the Sudanese village of Wad Oshaib in the central state of Al-Jazira.
Eyewitnesses in the village told AFP the Rapid Support Forces, at war with the army since April 2023, attacked the village on Tuesday evening. “The attack resumed this morning,” one eyewitness said by phone Wednesday, adding that paramilitary fighters were “looting property.”

Turkish indictment seeks prison for bank CEO in soccer stars case, state media says

Turkish indictment seeks prison for bank CEO in soccer stars case, state media says
Updated 48 min 35 sec ago
Follow

Turkish indictment seeks prison for bank CEO in soccer stars case, state media says

Turkish indictment seeks prison for bank CEO in soccer stars case, state media says
  • The new indictment relates to a previously opened case on the alleged defrauding of players including Turkiye’s Arda Turan and Uruguay’s Fernando Muslera by a former Denizbank branch manager

ISTANBUL: Turkish prosecutors have prepared an indictment seeking a prison sentence of 72 to 240 years for the chief executive of lender Denizbank for the alleged fraud of soccer stars, state-owned Anadolu news agency reported.
The new indictment relates to a previously opened case on the alleged defrauding of players including Turkiye’s Arda Turan and Uruguay’s Fernando Muslera by a former Denizbank branch manager. Denizbank has denied any role in wrongdoing.
Anadolu on Tuesday reported Denizbank CEO Hakan Ates and former assistant general manager Mehmet Aydogdu, who faces similar charges, had denied the allegations against them in the indictment, prepared by the Istanbul chief prosecutor’s office.
Responding to the widely reported details on the indictment, Denizbank said late on Tuesday: “We have not received any information regarding the prosecutor’s investigation reflected in some press and publication outlets today.”
The bank said the disclosure of the indictment details violated the confidentiality of the case. Details of indictments are regularly released via Anadolu news agency.
Denizbank said last week that Aydogdu had resigned.
“I do not accept the allegations,” CEO Ates is quoted as saying in the indictment.
Aydogdu was quoted as saying: “I have no connection with or knowledge of the matter.”
No arrests have been made or court appearances set in relation to the new indictment.
Under the case opened last year, prosecutors sought a 216-year prison term for Secil Erzan, the former branch manager charged with defrauding soccer celebrities including Turan, a former Barcelona midfielder, and Galatasaray goalkeeper Muslera.
According to last year’s indictment, Erzan defrauded some $44 million from 18 individuals, promising substantial returns on their investments in a “secret special fund.” There are 24 complainants in the latest indictment.
Erzan convinced them to invest in the fund in part by telling them that former Turkish national team coach Fatih Terim had also invested, according to that indictment.
Erzan has been jailed as the case against her continues.


Israeli strikes kill 15 in Gaza as hospital in north of the region makes distress call

Israeli strikes kill 15 in Gaza as hospital in north of the region makes distress call
Updated 20 November 2024
Follow

Israeli strikes kill 15 in Gaza as hospital in north of the region makes distress call

Israeli strikes kill 15 in Gaza as hospital in north of the region makes distress call
  • Palestinian officials say Israeli forces kill 15 in Gaza
  • Palestinian civil emergency says one staffer killed in air strike

CAIRO: Israeli forces killed at least 15 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, including a rescue worker, health officials said, as tanks deepened their incursion in the area and blew up homes, according to residents.
Medics said at least 12 people were killed in an Israeli strike on a house in the area of Jabalia, in northern Gaza, earlier on Wednesday. They said at least 10 people remained missing as rescue operations continued. Another man was killed in tank shelling nearby, they said.
In the Sabra suburb of Gaza City, the Palestinian civil emergency said an Israeli air strike targeted one of their teams during a rescue operation, killing one staff and wounding three others.
The death raised the number of civil emergency service members killed since Oct 7, 2023, to 87, it said.
There was no immediate Israeli comment on the two incidents.
Adding to the challenges facing the health care system in north Gaza areas, the civil emergency service said their vehicles were hardly operational because of shortages of fuel and equipment, citing Israel’s continued refusal to allow them to bring the needed supplies.
In Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, medics said one man was killed and others wounded in an Israeli air strike on the eastern territory of the city.
Residents in Jabalia, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanoun, where the army has operated since early last month, said forces blew up dozens of houses in the three areas, adding to fears Israel was seeking to clear residents to create a buffer zone, something Israel denies.
Israel said it sent forces into the two towns and refugee camp to fight Hamas militants launching attacks and to prevent them from regrouping. It said it had killed hundreds of them since Oct 5.
Hamas and the Islamic Jihad armed wing claimed they killed many Israeli soldiers in anti-tank and mortar fire as well as ambushes by explosive devices during the same period.
Hussam Abu Safiya, the director of Kamal Adwan Hospital, one of three medical facilities barely operational in the north of the enclave, said the hospital came under Israeli fire on Tuesday.
“The health care system is still operating under extremely harsh conditions. Following the arrest of 45 members of the medical and surgical staff and the denial of entry to a replacement team, we are now losing wounded patients daily who could have survived if resources were available,” said Abu Safiya.
“Unfortunately, food and water are not allowed to enter, and not even a single ambulance is permitted access to the north. Yesterday, the hospital was bombed across all its departments without warning, as we were trying to save an injured person in the intensive care unit,” he added.
Speaking during a visit to Gaza on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Hamas would not rule the Palestinian enclave after the war had ended and that Israel had destroyed the Islamist group’s military capabilities.
Netanyahu also said Israel had not given up trying to locate the 101 remaining hostages believed to be still in the enclave and he offered a $5 million reward for the return of each one.
Qatar, a key ceasefire mediator alongside Egypt, said it informed Hamas and Israel it will stall its mediation efforts unless the two warring parties showed “willingness and seriousness” to reach a deal.
Hamas wants a deal that ends the war, while Netanyahu vowed the war can only end once Hamas is eradicated.
The 2023 attack on Israel, which shattered Israel’s aura of invincibility, marked the country’s bloodiest day in its history, with 1,200 people killed and over 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli tallies.
Israel responded with its most destructive offensive in Gaza, killing nearly 44,000 people and wounding 103,898, according to the Gaza health ministry, and turning the enclave into a wasteland of rubble with millions desperate for food, fuel, water and sanitation.


France says window of opportunity open for Lebanon ceasefire

France says window of opportunity open for Lebanon ceasefire
Updated 43 min 17 sec ago
Follow

France says window of opportunity open for Lebanon ceasefire

France says window of opportunity open for Lebanon ceasefire
  • A Hezbollah official said any US-brokered ceasefire deal between the group and Israel must end fighting swiftly

PARIS: France’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that US-led efforts for a truce between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon had created the chance for a lasting ceasefire and he called on both sides to accept a deal on the table.
“There is a window of opportunity that’s opening for a lasting ceasefire in Lebanon that would allow the return of those displaced, ensure the sovereignty of Lebanon and the security of Israel,” Jean-Noel Barrot told Europe 1 radio.
“I call on all sides with whom we are in close contact to seize this window.” 

Meanwhile, a Hezbollah official said on Wednesday that any US-brokered ceasefire deal between the group and Israel must end fighting swiftly and must preserve Lebanon’s sovereignty, an apparent reference to Israel’s stance that it will keep striking the Iran-backed group even with a truce in place.
Speaking to Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV, Mahmoud Qmati said that he was neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic about the prospects of a truce. 


Iran offers to cap sensitive uranium stock as IAEA resolution looms

Iran offers to cap sensitive uranium stock as IAEA resolution looms
Updated 20 November 2024
Follow

Iran offers to cap sensitive uranium stock as IAEA resolution looms

Iran offers to cap sensitive uranium stock as IAEA resolution looms
  • Tehran has enough material at up to 60 percent purity for four bombs
  • Offer conditional on no resolution against Iran, diplomats say

VIENNA: Iran has tried in vain to prevent a Western push for a resolution against it at the UN nuclear watchdog’s board meeting by offering to cap its stock of uranium just shy of weapons grade, the watchdog and diplomats said on Tuesday.
One of two confidential International Atomic Energy Agency reports to member states, both seen by Reuters, said Iran had offered not to expand its stock of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent purity, near the roughly 90 percent of weapons grade, and had made preparations to do that.
The offer is conditional, however, on Western powers abandoning their push for a resolution against Iran at this week’s quarterly meeting of the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors over its lack of cooperation with the IAEA, diplomats said, adding that the push was continuing regardless.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told his French counterpart Jean-Noel Barrot that the push from France, Germany and Britain to submit a resolution against Tehran would “complicate matters” and contradict the “positive atmosphere created between Iran and the IAEA,” the Iranian foreign ministry said on Wednesday.
During IAEA chief Rafael Grossi’s trip to Iran last week, “the possibility of Iran not further expanding its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60 percent U-235 was discussed,” read one of the two quarterly IAEA reports.
It added that the IAEA had verified Iran had “begun implementation of preparatory measures.” A senior diplomat added that the pace of enrichment to that level had slowed, a step necessary before stopping.
Western diplomats dismissed Iran’s overture as yet another last-minute attempt to avoid censure at a board meeting, much like a vague pledge of deeper cooperation with the IAEA in March of last year that was never fully implemented.
“Stopping enriching to 60 percent, great, they shouldn’t be doing that in the first place as we all know there’s no credible civilian use for the 60 percent,” one Western diplomat said, adding: “It’s something they could switch back on again easily.”
Iran’s offer was to cap the stock of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent at around 185 kg, or the amount it had two days ago, a senior diplomat said. That is enough in principle, if enriched further, for four nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons.
The report said Iran’s stock of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent had grown by 17.6 kg in the past quarter to 182.3 kg as of Oct. 26, also enough for four weapons by that measure.

Inspectors
The second report said Iran had also agreed to consider allowing four more “experienced inspectors” to work in Iran after it barred most of the IAEA’s inspectors who are experts in enrichment last year in what the IAEA called a “very serious blow” to its ability to do its job properly in Iran.
Diplomats said they could not be the same inspectors that were barred.
The reports were delayed by Grossi’s trip, during which he hoped to persuade Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian to end a standoff with the IAEA over long-running issues like unexplained uranium traces at undeclared sites and extending IAEA oversight to more areas.
The draft resolution backed by Britain, France, Germany and the United States condemning Iran for its poor cooperation with the IAEA would also task the IAEA with issuing a “comprehensive report” on Iran’s nuclear activities, diplomats said.
There is little doubt the board will pass the resolution, due to be formally submitted on Tuesday evening for a vote later this week. The last resolution against Iran was in June. Only Russia and China opposed it.
The aim is to pressure Iran to return to the negotiating table to agree fresh restrictions on its nuclear activities since a 2015 deal with far-ranging curbs fell apart. Although most of its terms have been broken, the deal’s “termination day” formally lifting them is in October of next year.
It is the last quarterly board meeting before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
Trump pulled the United States out of the nuclear deal in 2018, which prompted its unraveling. It is far from clear if he would back talks with Iran, having pledged instead to again take a more confrontational approach and align Washington even more closely with Iran’s arch-foe Israel, which opposed the deal.