Oil Updates – market sees losses on tight supply but cloudy demand caps gains
Updated 13 November 2024
Reuters
SINGAPORE: Oil prices edged up on Wednesday on signs of near-term supply tightness but remained near their lowest in two weeks, a day after OPEC downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.
Brent futures rose 17 cents, or 0.24 percent, to $72.06 a barrel by 7:20 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 14 cents, or 0.21 percent, at $68.26.
“Crude oil prices edged higher as tightness in the physical market offset bearish sentiment on demand. Buyers in the physical market have been particularly active, with any available cargoes being snapped up quickly,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
But falling demand projections and weakness in major consumer China continued to weigh on market sentiment.
“We may expect prices to consolidate around current levels for longer,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, adding the recent attempt for a bounce was quickly sold into.
“The absence of a more direct fiscal stimulus out of China has been casting a shadow on oil demand outlook, coupled with the prospects of higher US oil production with a Trump presidency and looming OPEC+’s plans for an output raise,” Yeap added.
In its monthly report on Tuesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month, mostly due to weakness in China, the world’s biggest oil importer.
Oil prices settled up 0.1 percent on Tuesday following the news, after falling by about 5 percent during the two previous sessions.
OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd.
The International Energy Agency, which has a far lower view, is set to publish its updated forecast on Thursday.
“The re-election of former President Trump is unlikely to materially affect oil market fundamentals over the near term, in our view,” Barclays analysts wrote.
“Drill, baby, drill: this is likely to underwhelm as a strategy to drive oil prices materially lower over the near term” given that the stock of approved permits actually rose under the Biden administration, the analysts said.
However, markets would still feel the effects of a supply disruption from Iran or a further escalation between Iran and Israel, according to Barclays.
Donald Trump’s expected secretary of state pick, US Senator Marco Rubio, is known for his hard-line stance on Iran, China and Cuba. Tighter enforcement of sanctions on Iran could disrupt global oil supply, while a tougher approach to China could further weaken oil demand in the world’s largest consumer.
Two US central bankers said on Tuesday that interest rates are acting as a brake on inflation that is still above the 2 percent mark, suggesting that the Federal Reserve would be open to further interest rate cuts.
The Fed cut its policy rate last week by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.50 percent-4.75 percent range. Interest rate cuts typically boost economic activity and energy demand.
US weekly inventory reports have been delayed by a day following Monday’s Veterans Day holiday. The American Petroleum Institute industry group data is due at 00:30 a.m. Saudi time on Thursday.
Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 100,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 8.
Saudi Arabia emerging as global cybersecurity guardian: digital experts
Updated 20 December 2024
Nadin Hassan
RIYADH: From protecting its growing digital infrastructure to exporting cybersecurity technologies and expertise, Saudi Arabia is emerging as a key player in addressing global cyber threats.
The Kingdom has made significant strides in developing its technology infrastructure, a key pillar of its Vision 2030 initiative aimed at diversifying the economy beyond oil.
This digital transformation has been accompanied by a comprehensive approach to online safety – including the adoption of the National Cybersecurity Strategy, which focuses on creating a secure digital landscape that supports rapid technological advancements.
“The growth of Saudi Arabia’s tech infrastructure has substantially enhanced its cybersecurity capabilities,” Sohil Mohamed, director, cyber risk advisory lead at Alvarez & Marsal told Arab News.
He praised the National Cybersecurity Strategy, saying that it prioritizes resilience, secure digital landscapes, and trust.
This strategic approach ensures that Saudi Arabia’s technological growth is supported by adaptive risk management and dynamic defense mechanisms.
In addition to the government’s efforts, the private sector has also played a critical role in building a secure digital ecosystem.
The expanding cybersecurity market in Saudi Arabia
As one of the fastest-growing markets in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s cybersecurity sector is valued at approximately SR13.3 billion.
This rapidly expanding market offers substantial opportunities for public-private partnerships, particularly in developing advanced cybersecurity solutions and creating new business models for commercial involvement.
Additionally, the Saudi government’s focus on digital transformation and cybersecurity has opened new avenues for investment.
“Key areas of focus include the development of advanced cybersecurity solutions, engagement in public-private partnerships, and contributions to national initiatives such as the Cybersecurity Catalyst Program spearheaded by the National Cybersecurity Authority,” Mohamed said.
These initiatives are driving a collaborative effort between the public and private sectors to strengthen the Kingdom’s cyber resilience.
Saudi Arabia’s investment in the sector also positions it as a key player in the global cybersecurity market.
The government has partnered with international organizations and cybersecurity firms to enhance its capabilities and bolster the country’s readiness to handle large-scale cyber threats.
This proactive stance is evident in Saudi Arabia’s role as host of major events, such as the Global Cybersecurity Forum, which brings together industry leaders.
Sohil Mohamed, director, cyber risk advisory lead at Alvarez & Marsal. Supplied
Protecting national infrastructure – a key priority
Critical Information Infrastructure Protection has become a top priority for Saudi Arabia as it seeks to secure vital sectors, such as energy, finance, and transportation, from cyber threats.
The Kingdom has experienced several high-profile cyberattacks, most notably the Shamoon attack in 2012, which targeted Saudi Aramco, one of the world’s largest energy companies.
This incident underscored the importance of building robust cybersecurity measures to protect national assets.
Saudi corporations are increasingly focused on quantifying the economic impact of potential cyberattacks, particularly in industries that form the backbone of the national economy.
“Saudi corporations are progressively implementing sophisticated risk assessment tools and methodologies to quantify the economic impact of cyber threats,” Mohamed said.
He explained that this includes evaluating potential financial losses, operational disruptions, and reputational damage from cyber incidents.
Additionally, cyber insurance is becoming a critical tool for mitigating risks. This provides financial protection against potential cyberattacks and promotes the adoption of best practices across industries.
The growing reliance on cyber insurance reflects the increased awareness among Saudi businesses of the importance of proactive cybersecurity measures.
Exporting cybersecurity expertise and technology
Saudi Arabia’s progress in cybersecurity is not only benefitting the Kingdom but also positioning it as a global leader capable of exporting expertise and technologies.
The National Cybersecurity Authority has been instrumental in fostering international collaborations and creating platforms for knowledge sharing.
Initiatives such as the National Cybersecurity Academy provide advanced training to professionals, equipping them with the skills needed to address both domestic and international challenges.
Alvarez & Marsal’s Mohamed said: “By leveraging its robust cybersecurity frameworks and strategic partnerships, Saudi Arabia can offer tailored cybersecurity services and solutions to other regions. Initiatives such as the National Cybersecurity Academy by the NCA.”
This capacity for exporting cybersecurity solutions will allow Saudi Arabia to play a critical role in addressing global online threats.
Moreover, the Kingdom’s strategic location and status as a regional economic hub make it a key player in cybersecurity across the Middle East and North Africa region.
Saudi Arabia is increasingly seen as a model for other countries seeking to enhance their cybersecurity frameworks. Its experience in managing threats and building resilient digital infrastructure has positioned it as a leader in this space.
The Kingdom’s efforts to protect its critical infrastructure are seen not just as a defensive necessity but also as a key pillar in positioning the Kingdom as a leader in global cybersecurity. Vision 2030 has been a central driver of this transformation.
Events such as the Global Cybersecurity Forum have cemented Saudi Arabia’s leadership position. File
Samer Omar, cybersecurity and digital trust leader at PwC Middle East, highlighted to Arab News how the Kingdom’s digital growth has shaped its cybersecurity strategy.
“Saudi Arabia has achieved fourth place globally in the digital services index, first regionally, and second among G20 nations. The rapid advance in technology has increased the digital ecosystem in Saudi Arabia, which in turn has further increased its exposure to cyber-attacks,” Omar said.
He added: “In response, the Kingdom has successfully orchestrated a combination of regulations, investments, and awareness which has propelled most sectors to adopt a proactive security by design approach.”
This proactive approach allowed Saudi Arabia to secure the highest ranking possible in the UN Global Cybersecurity Index 2024, a reflection of the Kingdom’s investment in a secure digital future.
Omar pointed out that Vision 2030 has accelerated the investment in human capital to build critical national capability and aid nationals in attaining key cybersecurity skills and certifications.
He also emphasized the vital role Vision 2030 plays in safeguarding the Kingdom’s critical sectors, particularly energy, finance, and smart cities, which are integral to the nation’s economy.
“Saudi Arabia faces compelling challenges in these critical sectors due to the complex infrastructure, creating a potentially vulnerable and vast attack surface for adversaries,” Omar said.
Omar noted Saudi Arabia’s determination to not only secure its own digital landscape but also position itself as a cybersecurity leader on the global stage.
This leadership is exemplified by initiatives like the Global Cybersecurity Forum, which Omar describes as “a unique ecosystem and platform that is actively engaging with leading bodies such as the World Economic Forum,” thus shaping the future of cybersecurity well beyond the Kingdom.
Addressing the cybersecurity talent gap
Saudi Arabia has been proactively addressing the shortage of cybersecurity talent by heavily investing in capacity-building programs supported by both public and private sectors.
“There are an estimated 19,600 Saudi cybersecurity professionals with 32 percent of them being female,” Omar said.
He continued: “In addition, most major universities have cybersecurity education and training including Capture The Flag competitions, and all the major cybersecurity technology vendors provide training on their products and services.”
These efforts are integral to the country’s broader vision of strengthening its digital infrastructure under Vision 2030.
A secure future
According to Omar, the cybersecurity industry in Saudi Arabia is projected to experience significant growth in the coming years, driven by the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 initiative and robust regulatory frameworks.
“NCA released a report this year that estimates the size of the cybersecurity market to be SR13.3 billion with 31 percent of the spending from the public sector and the remaining 69 percent from the private sector,” he said.
Omar went on to say: “Some analysts estimate the cybersecurity CAGR to be between 11 percent to 13 percent.”
This is due to Vision 2030, which serves as a catalyst for developing the digital ecosystem, Omar explained, emphasizing the strategic role of the initiative in shaping the country’s cyber transformation.
KARACHI: Pakistan’s Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has waived off customs and regulatory duties on imports from Azerbaijan under the Pakistan-Azerbaijan Preferential Trade Agreement, the finance ministry said in a notification this month.
During Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev’s two-day visit to Pakistan in July, both nations agreed to enhance the volume of bilateral trade to $2 billion, vowing to strengthen ties and increase cooperation in mutually beneficial economic projects. They also signed the Pakistan-Azerbaijan Preferential Trade Agreement to boost economic cooperation through the reduction of tariffs on goods like Pakistani sports equipment, leather, and pharmaceuticals as well as Azerbaijani oil and gas products.
“The federal government is pleased to exempt with effect from Dec. 16, 2024, the import into Pakistan from Azerbaijan of the goods specified,” the finance ministry said in a notification. adding that imports from Azerbaijan would be exempted from all kinds of tariffs including customs duty, additional customs duty and regulatory duty.
“Provided that where the rates of customs duty, additional customs duty, and regulatory duty [...] are higher than specified rates, the lower rates [...] shall apply,” it added.
The tariff concessions cover items including shelled hazelnuts or filberts, apricots, vegetable saps and extracts, non-stemmed tobacco, polyethylene, propylene copolymers, casing, tubing, drill pipes and refined copper wire with a maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeding 6 mm.
In recent weeks, there has been a flurry of visits, investment talks and economic activity between officials from Pakistan and the Central Asian nations as well as other transcontinental and landlocked countries like Azerbaijan as Islamabad seeks to consolidate the South Asian nation’s role as a pivotal trade and transit hub.
Oil Updates – crude falls on demand growth concerns, robust dollar
Updated 20 December 2024
Reuters
LONDON, Dec 20 : Oil prices fell on Friday on worries about demand growth in 2025, especially in top crude importer China, putting global oil benchmarks on track to end the week down more than 3 percent.
Brent crude futures fell by 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $72.56 a barrel by 4:09 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also eased 32 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $69.06 per barrel.
Chinese state-owned refiner Sinopec said in its annual energy outlook released on Thursday that China’s crude imports could peak as soon as 2025 and the country’s oil consumption would peak by 2027 as diesel and gasoline demand weaken.
“Benchmark crude prices are in a prolonged consolidation phase as the market heads toward the year-end weighed by uncertainty in oil demand growth,” said Emril Jamil, senior research specialist at LSEG.
He added that OPEC+ would require supply discipline to perk up prices and soothe jittery market nerves over continuous revisions of its demand growth outlook. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, recently cut its growth forecast for 2024 global oil demand for a fifth straight month.
JPMorgan sees the oil market moving from balance in 2024 to a surplus of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025, as the bank forecasts non-OPEC+ supply increasing by 1.8 million bpd in 2025 and OPEC output remaining at current levels.
Meanwhile, the dollar’s climb to near a two-year high also weighed on oil prices, after the US Federal Reserve flagged it would be cautious about cutting interest rates in 2025.
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, while a slower pace of rate cuts could dampen economic growth and trim oil demand.
US President-elect Donald Trump said on Friday that the EU may face tariffs if the bloc does not cut its growing deficit with the US by making large oil and gas trades with the world’s largest economy.
In a move that could pare supply, G7 countries are considering ways to tighten the price cap on Russian oil, such as with an outright ban or by lowering the price threshold, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.
Russia has circumvented the $60 per barrel cap imposed in 2022 using its “shadow fleet” of ships, which the EU and UK have targeted with further sanctions in recent days.
Saudi Arabia drives MENA e-commerce growth during festive season: report
Updated 19 December 2024
Reem Walid
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia played a pivotal role in driving a 44 percent increase in e-commerce orders across the Middle East and North Africa region during the 2024 festive season, according to a joint study by Flowwow and Admitad.
The surge was fueled by trends in mobile shopping, cultural celebrations, and gifting. Saudi Arabia led the way in mobile commerce adoption, with 62 percent of online purchases made via mobile devices.
The report also highlighted significant growth in the broader MENA e-commerce market, which is expected to reach $50 billion by 2025. During the holiday season, this market experienced a substantial uptick in activity.
Flowwow, a UAE-based gifting marketplace, reported a 62 percent rise in purchases, an 86 percent increase in sales turnover, and a 15.76 percent increase in average order value compared to the previous year.
Slava Bogdan, CEO of Flowwow, said: “The festive season is one of the peak shopping periods for Flowwow gifting marketplace. It’s a time when our customers focus on celebrating and sharing joy through thoughtful gifts for their loved ones.”
He continued: “Starting with White Friday in November and continuing through the Christmas and New Year festivities, this period represents a critical shopping time in the GCC region, especially with the growing expat population.”
According to the study, November emerged as the busiest month for e-commerce, driven by Black Friday sales and preparations for Christmas and New Year. Ramadan in March and International Women’s Day in January also contributed to sales growth, with increases of 11 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
Across the region, the average order value rose from $30 in 2023 to $36 in 2024, reflecting a shift toward higher spending on quality items.
The report further revealed that mobile commerce accounted for 44.6 percent of all orders in the region in 2024. Following Saudi Arabia’s lead, the UAE recorded 60 percent adoption, Bahrain had 59 percent, and Oman followed with 58 percent. Kuwait and Qatar also saw strong mobile commerce uptake at 57 percent and 54 percent, respectively.
Marketplaces continued to dominate, contributing to 67 percent of total sales. Key product categories included electronics, fashion, and home and garden, while high-value items like furniture and jewelry drove higher AOVs.
“This year’s surge in e-commerce activity demonstrates the evolving shopping habits in the MENA region, where mobile-first experiences and marketplace-driven sales have become the backbone of consumer behavior. Our data highlights how businesses can leverage these trends to optimize their strategies and grow significantly during peak seasons,” said Anna Gidirim, CEO of Admitad.
Among the countries in the region, Kuwait recorded the highest average order value at $127, followed by the UAE at $102, Egypt at $74, Saudi Arabia at $52, and Qatar at $50.
Pakistan saw the largest sales growth at 28 percent, with notable increases in Kuwait at 17 percent and Saudi Arabia at 8 percent, according to the survey data.
The report emphasized the importance of cultural celebrations in shaping consumer behavior and underscored the growing role of mobile commerce and marketplaces in the region’s e-commerce landscape.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index ends week in red; trade volume nears $3bn
Updated 19 December 2024
Nour El-Shaeri
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index closed in red on Thursday, losing 68.61 points, or 0.57 percent, to settle at 11,892.44.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR10.9 billion ($2.9 billion), as 51 of the listed stocks advanced, while 185 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index also decreased by 8.95 points, or 0.60 percent, to close at 1,489.42.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu gained 247.96 points, or 0.79 percent, to close at 31,444.21. This comes as 33 of the listed stocks advanced, while 49 retreated.
The best-performing stock of the day was Savola Group, with its share price surging by 9.97 percent to SR36.95.
Other top performers included Middle East Specialized Cables Co., which saw its share price rise by 5.14 percent to SR41.90, and Arabian Centers Co., which saw a 3.94 percent increase to SR21.62.
Bawan Co. and Al-Baha Investment and Development Co. also saw a positive change, with their share prices surging by 3.64 percent and 3.23 percent to SR57 and SR0.32, respectively.
The worst performer of the day was Fitaihi Holding Group, whose share price fell by 6.68 percent to SR4.05.
Arabian Contracting Services Co. and AYYAN Investment Co. also saw declines, with their shares dropping by 4.17 percent and 14.42 percent to SR156.40 and SR3.87, respectively.
Moreover, Raydan Food Co. and East Pipes Integrated Co. for Industry also saw declines in today’s session, with their share prices dropping by 3.32 percent and 3.30 percent to SR22.10 and SR135, respectively.
On Nomu, the top performer was Leaf Global Environmental Services Co., with its share price surging by 13.29 percent to reach SR110.
In second place was Intelligent Oud Co. for Trading, which saw an 8.92 percent surge in terms of share price to SR48.25, followed by National Environmental Recycling Co., which saw a 6.71 percent surge in its share price to reach SR8.11.
Saudi Azm for Communication and Information Technology Co. and Gas Arabian Services Co. also fared well with 6.16 percent and 4.67 percent increases, respectively.
On the announcement front, United Electronics Co., also known as eXtra, has recommended repurchasing up to 3 million ordinary shares to be held as treasury shares, according to a filing with the Tadawul.
The board highlighted that the current market price of the company’s stock is below its fair value, prompting the buyback proposal.
The repurchase will be financed through eXtra’s internal resources, including proceeds from the successful initial public offering of its subsidiary, United International Holding Co.
Currently, 4.4 percent of eXtra’s share capital is held as treasury shares. The company highlighted that repurchased shares will not carry voting rights at shareholders’ meetings.
The proposed buyback is subject to approval by the extraordinary general meeting. It will also require compliance with financial solvency requirements outlined in the executive regulations of the Companies Law governing listed joint-stock companies.
ACWA Power Co. has also submitted a request to the Capital Market Authority to increase its capital through an SR7.13 billion rights issue, according to a bourse filing.
The company stated that further updates regarding the capital increase will be disclosed in due course.
Red Sea International Co.’s subsidiary, Fundamental Installation for Electric Work Co., has signed an agreement to increase its credit facilities with Saudi Awwal Bank by SR100 million, according to a statement to Tadawul.
As a result, the total value of the facilities will rise to SR296.11 million, with the financing period extending until Dec. 18, 2025.
The agreement includes a promissory note of SR296.10 million signed by Fundamental Installation for Electric Work, Red Sea International, and MSB Holding, as well as Fares Esamet Al-Saadi and Zeyad Al-Sayegh.
Personal guarantees of SR14.50 million and SR29.01 million were also provided by Al-Sayegh and Al-Saadi, respectively, while MSB Holding and Red Sea International issued corporate guarantees of SR101.56 million and SR151.01 million, respectively.
The additional credit facilities aim to increase the limit of letters of credit to support the import and procurement of goods for one of the company’s projects.
United Electronics Co.’s share price increased by 3.05 percent in Thursday’s trading session to reach SR98.
ACWA Power Co. Saw a 2.13 percent drop in its share price to close Thursday’s trading at SR377.60.
Red Sea International Co.’s share price dropped 1.06 percent to settle at SR0.60 by Thursday’s end.
