Global freshwater supplies in the balance

While the world’s attention has been on the US election, the rising number of extreme weather events — from disastrous flooding in Spain to southern Africa’s worst drought in a century — highlights the need to remain focused on climate change, biodiversity loss and a changing water cycle.
These crises are related and the symptoms are getting worse. When drought kills crops, millions of people suffer; and when water extremes (too much or too little) hit vulnerable societies, the resulting displacements, migration and conflicts can affect everyone.
Yet no one is listening. The recent COP16 biodiversity summit in Cali, Colombia, received little international attention and failed to produce a roadmap to ramp up funding for species protection. Instead, delegates merely celebrated their decision to charge private companies for the use of genetic biodiversity information and to establish a new working group for indigenous peoples.
While important, these developments are marginal in relation to the task of halting biodiversity loss. Worse, they could serve as a smokescreen for global inaction, just as we have seen over the years in global climate negotiations, where long sessions on trade and “loss and damage” obscured the lack of action on phasing out fossil fuels. Although the Global Biodiversity Framework — adopted in Montreal in 2022 — established ambitious targets to protect 30 percent of the planet by 2030, 158 countries still have not submitted formal plans on how they will play their part.
This inaction cannot continue. Human activities are threatening the stability of the climate and the natural systems upon which human well-being depends. Food security, human health and social stability are all on the line. The COP16 negotiations are supposed to continue “at a later date” — but the world cannot afford to let COP16 pass without significant progress toward protecting our planet’s biodiversity and ecosystems.
Without urgent, systemic, collective action, the effects of climate change, biodiversity loss and the water crisis will only intensify. Biodiversity and nature are central to maintaining stable climate patterns and the hydrological cycle. Wetlands and forests, which store huge amounts of carbon, rely on stable water cycles and thriving biodiversity to function effectively.
Similarly, terrestrial ecosystems currently absorb 25 percent of carbon dioxide emissions, helping to prevent atmospheric levels from rising beyond 420 parts per million. Yet extreme hydrological events — droughts and floods, combined with heat during the 2023 “super El Nino” cycle — eroded this massive carbon sink substantially. This was a serious warning sign. Unchecked biodiversity loss alone could cause us to exceed the Paris climate agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, with dire consequences for vulnerable communities worldwide.
In our final report for the Global Commission on the Economics of Water, we show how interconnected our world is not just through the blue water in our rivers and lakes, but also through “green water” in soil moisture. Moreover, we are all connected through “atmospheric rivers” — moisture transported from the soil, through plants and forests, to the atmosphere, where it flows between regions to provide essential rainfall.

We can still turn the tide on the global water crisis, but only by protecting and restoring declining ecosystems.

Mariana Mazzucato and Johan Rockstrom

Healthy vegetation is the backbone of this process, transpiring water into the atmosphere to generate clouds. Some countries benefit disproportionately from these atmospheric rivers, while others, like India and Brazil, are significant exporters of moisture. Almost half of global rainfall depends on neighboring land use, underscoring the importance of conserving healthy ecosystems worldwide.
The costs of inaction are enormous. A destabilized hydrological cycle implies far-reaching economic damage. Changing precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, reduced water storage and declining access to clean water augur significant gross domestic product losses. High-income countries face an average GDP contraction of 8 percent by 2050 and lower-income countries could suffer drops of up to 15 percent. At the same time, more than half (55 percent) of the world’s food production is now in areas with dwindling freshwater supplies.
We can still turn the tide on the global water crisis, but only by protecting and restoring declining ecosystems. As the commission’s report notes, a good starting point is for governments to adopt a clear set of mission-driven policies to “conserve and restore natural habitats critical to protect green water.” Mission-driven policies that recognize the interdependencies between water and biodiversity are needed to foster the all-of-government and economy-wide responses that planetary sustainability requires.
For example, a mission to “restore at least 30 percent of degraded forest and inland water ecosystems globally by 2030” would require sectors as diverse as agriculture, forestry, construction and information and communication technologies (to name just a few) to work together. A mission to restore forests is not just for the environment ministry, but also for the finance, agriculture and science and technology ministries, among others.
Governments have a chance to demonstrate this level of ambition and make meaningful progress when COP16 negotiations resume. First, they must submit formal plans on how they will meet the Global Biodiversity Framework targets. Second, national biodiversity strategies and action plans that set priorities and direct financing streams must recognize the importance of green water.
Third, governments must do more to recognize the rights of indigenous peoples, who are stewards of a quarter of the planet’s land and about 40 percent of the remaining natural lands worldwide. While COP16 delegates did agree that companies should compensate local and indigenous communities for the use of genetic information drawn from the biodiversity they help safeguard, the compensation thresholds should be more ambitious.
Tokenistic smokescreens are not evidence of a successful summit. We cannot afford to lose a decade of action on biodiversity. The world’s access to freshwater depends on governments doing more right now.

• Mariana Mazzucato, founding director of the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, is co-chair of the Global Commission on the Economics of Water and co-chair of the Group of Experts to the G20 Taskforce for a Global Mobilization Against Climate Change.

• Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and professor of Earth system science at the University of Potsdam, is co-chair of the Global Commission on the Economics of Water.

©Project Syndicate