Frankly Speaking: What a Trump foreign policy might look like

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Updated 11 November 2024
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Frankly Speaking: What a Trump foreign policy might look like

Frankly Speaking: What a Trump foreign policy might look like
  • Former US ambassador and current senior fellow at the Middle East Institute outlined his expectations for the Middle East and beyond
  • Robert Ford appeared on the “Frankly Speaking” show as Republican President-elect Donald Trump prepared to take the reins of power

DUBAI: Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House after a resounding victory in the Nov. 5 election is set to reshape America’s foreign policy. Since it comes at a time of unprecedented tension and uncertainty in the Middle East, regional actors are closely watching for signs of how a new Republican administration might wield influence and power.

In a wide-ranging interview, Robert Ford, a veteran American diplomat with extensive Arab region experience, outlined his expectations for the Middle East and beyond, indicating that it is important to set expectations for what can be achieved. 

Middle East conflicts, especially those in Gaza and Lebanon, have dominated the international conversation since a deadly Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7 last year sparked a devastating Israeli military retaliation. “With respect to President-elect Trump’s promises to end wars, I don’t think he can end a war in a day,” Ford said on “Frankly Speaking,” the weekly Arab News current affairs show.

“I don’t think he can end a war in a week, but he can push for negotiations on the Ukraine war. And with respect to the war in Gaza and the war in Lebanon, he has an ability to influence events. (But) I am not sure he will use that ability.”

Ford noted that there is little support within the Republican Party for a two-state solution to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, making it unlikely that the incoming Trump administration will pressure Israel on this issue. 




Robert Ford, a veteran American diplomat with extensive Middle East experience, outlined to Frankly Speaking host Katie Jensen his expectations for the Middle East and beyond following the election of Donald Trump as US President. (AN Photo)

“The American Republican Party, in particular, has evinced little support for the establishment of a Palestinian state over the past 15 years. There is no (faction) in the Republican Party exerting pressure for that,” he said. 

In fact, he pointed out, “there are many in the Republican Party who back harder line Israeli politicians who reject the establishment of a Palestinian state.” 

In the current political climate, when there is strong Arab-Islamic unity over the Israeli invasion of Gaza and the consequent high civilian death toll, recognition of a Palestinian state has become a matter of priority for regional actors. Saudi Arabia has been leading efforts to boost international cooperation to reach a two-state solution. In September, the Kingdom’s government formed a global alliance to lead efforts aimed at establishing a Palestinian state.

Ford, who is a current senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, believes that any push for progress on this issue will likely come from Gulf leaders. “The only people who will have influence with President Trump personally on this are in fact leaders in the Gulf. And if they make Palestine a priority, perhaps he will reconsider, and I emphasize the word ‘perhaps’,” he said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is keen on normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia, but the Kingdom has made it very clear that normalization will be off the table unless it sees the recognition of a Palestinian state.

“The first thing is I would imagine that the incoming Trump administration will ask the Saudi government whether or not it is still insistent on a Palestinian state — or at least concrete measures toward a Palestinian state — as part of a package deal involving a US-Saudi defense agreement,” Ford told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”

“I think the Trump people would rather not have any kind of Saudi conditionality regarding Palestine as part of that agreement, because, in large part, the Israelis won’t accept it.” 

The US has long been the largest arms supplier to Israel. Last year, after Israel began its assault on Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups, it asked the US for $10 billion in emergency military aid, according to a New York Times report. The Council on Foreign Relations, an independent US-based think tank, estimates that the US has provided at least $12.5 billion in military aid to Israel since last October.

Trump has reportedly told Netanyahu that he wants the war in Gaza, which so far has claimed more than 43,400 Palestinian lives, most of them civilians, to finish by the time he takes office in January. Does that mean a Trump administration will put pressure on the Israeli leader to wrap up the war?




Trump waves as he walks with former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Wednesday, Nov. 6. (AP)

Ford ruled out the possibility of a reduction in US supply of weapons to Israel. “It’s extremely unlikely that, especially in 2025, President Trump and his team will impose an arms embargo on Israel,” he said. 

Ford expects Trump’s well-known disdain for foreign aid to affect US assistance for Israel in the long term, but without the use of reductions as a threat. 

“I do think that President Trump does not particularly like foreign aid. He views foreign aid as an expenditure of American money and resources that he would rather keep in the US,” he said. 

“So, over the long term, and I stress the word ‘long term,’ I could imagine that President Trump might look for ways to begin to reduce the annual American assistance to Israel, which is over $4 billion in total. 

“But I don’t think he would do that in a way that is used as a threat against Israel. It’s much more likely it would be part of a Trump measure to reduce foreign aid to a lot of countries, not only Israel.”

The Middle East’s second major conflict, between Israel and Hezbollah, has been raging for 13 months now in Lebanon, taking a toll of 3,000 lives, including combatants, and displacing 1.2 million people from the country’s south. In Israel, 72 people, including 30 soldiers, have been killed by Hezbollah attacks and 60,000 people have been displaced during the same period.

The war shows no signs of ending: Israel says it is carrying out new operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon and in parts of Syria, while Hezbollah continues to launch dozens of rockets into northern Israel.

Ford sees potential for early US involvement in discussions on Lebanon “fairly early in the administration,” adding that the engagement would begin through a family connection between Trump and Lebanon.

Although he does not think Lebanon is high on the incoming administration’s agenda, he finds “it is interesting that there is a family connection between President-elect Trump and Lebanon.”

“The husband of one of his daughters is connected to Lebanon, and his daughter’s father-in-law,” Ford, said referring to Massad Boulos, a Lebanese-American businessman whose son Michael married Tiffany Trump two years ago and who acted as a Trump emissary to the Arab American community during the election campaign.

“Because Trump operates very much with family, and we saw that in the first administration — first Trump administration — supposedly this Lebanese American gentleman, businessman, may be involved in some discussions.”

Ford also noted that “Israeli success against Hezbollah and against Iran has made the Hezbollah and Iranian side more flexible in their positions,” adding that “it might be easier to reach an agreement on ending the war in Lebanon than, for example, it will be in Gaza.” 

Moving on to Syria, Ford, who served as the US ambassador in Damascus from 2011 to 2014, said while the country “is very low on President Trump’s priority list,” Trump might pull the remaining American troops out.

The US is reported to have a military presence of approximately 900 personnel in eastern Syria and 2,500 in Iraq as part of the international coalition against Daesh. The troops in Syria serve various purposes: helping prevent the resurgence of Daesh, supporting Washington’s Kurdish allies and containing the influence of Iran and Russia — both of which also have a military presence in Syria.

“I think it more likely than not that President Trump will withdraw the remaining American forces in Syria, which numbers somewhere around 1,000,” Ford said, adding that the president-elect might also “withdraw the American forces that are now in Iraq as part of the international coalition against Daesh.” 

He added that Trump “may, perhaps, accept a bilateral relationship, military relationship with Iraq afterward,” but Syria remains “low on his priority list.”

Ford also thinks it is “impossible” for Syrian President Bashar Assad to abandon his alliance with Iran, against which the new Trump administration is expected to reapply “maximum pressure.” 

“The Iranians really saved him (Assad) from the Syrian armed opposition in 2013 and 2014 and 2015,” he said. “There is no alternative for President Assad to a continued close military relationship with Iran.”

He added: “I’m sure President Assad is uncomfortable with some of the things which Iran is doing in Syria and which are triggering substantial Israeli airstrikes. But to abandon Iran? No, that’s difficult for me to imagine.”

He said to expect the Syrian leader to trust Gulf Arab governments more than he would trust the Iranians would be “a big ask.”

When it comes to US policy toward Iran, Ford expects the new Trump administration to return to the “maximum pressure” policy. “For a long time, the Biden administration ignored Iranian sales of petroleum to Chinese companies. ... But the Trump administration is certainly going to take more aggressive action against Chinese companies that import Iranian oil and other countries,” he said.




Demonstration by the families of the hostages taken captive in the Gaza Strip by Hamas militants during the Oct. 7 attacks, calling for action to release the hostages, outside the Israeli Prime Minister's residence in Azza (Gaza) Street in central Jerusalem last month. (AFP)

“It’s highly unlikely that the Trump administration is going to accept that Iraq imports and pays for Iranian energy products, such as electricity and natural gas.”

Ford sees the Trump team as split into two camps: the extreme conservatives, who want regime change in Tehran, and the isolationists, who oppose the US entering a war with Iran.

“There is a camp of extreme conservatives, many of whom actually do favor attempting regime change in Iran. They won’t use the words ‘regime change’ because the words have a bad air, a bad connotation in the US now, but they are, in effect, calling for regime change in Iran,” he said. 

“I should hasten to add that they don’t know what would replace the Islamic Republic in terms of a government.” 

According to Ford, the second camp “is a more, in some ways, isolationist camp. J.D. Vance, the vice president-elect, would be in this camp; so would American media personality Tucker Carlson, who’s a very strong Trump supporter and who has influence with Trump. 

“They do not want to send in the American military into a new war in the Middle East, and they don’t advocate for a war against Iran.”

Ford’s own sense of Trump, from his first administration and from recent statements, is that “he, too, is very cautious about sending the US military to fight Iran.”

Similarly, the Trump team is divided when it comes to the Ukraine war, according to Ford, so it will take some time “for Trump himself to make a definitive policy decision.”

“There are some, such as former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, who are very firm supporters of the Ukrainian effort against Russia. Others, like Vance, are not.”

The second reality regarding Ukraine, Ford said, is that Trump himself is skeptical about the value of NATO, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

“I cannot imagine that he will be enthusiastic in any way about Ukraine joining NATO. That will at least address one of Moscow’s big concerns,” he said. “The third point I would make: The Americans may propose ideas. But the American ideas about, for example, an autonomous region in eastern Ukraine or freezing the battle lines.”

He added: “I’m not sure that (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky is going to be enthusiastic about accepting them. I’m not sure the Europeans will be enthusiastic about accepting them. And therefore, again, the negotiation process could take a long time.”

On who might advise Trump on Middle East policy after he moves into the White House in January, now that Jared Kushner, the former senior adviser and Trump’s son-in-law, has announced he does not plan to join the administration this time, Ford said Trump places a very high regard on loyalty to him personally.

“People such as Richard Grenell, who was his acting director of national intelligence, and Pompeo pass that kind of loyalty test,” he said. (On Sunday, Trump announced he would not ask Pompeo or former primary opponent Nikki Haley to join his second administration.)

“Trump’s agenda this time is massive change in the Washington federal departments among the employees. And he will trust loyalists … to implement those deep changes — the firing of thousands of employees,” Ford said. “We will see a very different kind of Trump foreign policy establishment by the time we arrive in the year 2026-2027.”

 

 

 


Thousands march in Germany to demand release of Kurd leader

Thousands march in Germany to demand release of Kurd leader
Updated 23 sec ago
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Thousands march in Germany to demand release of Kurd leader

Thousands march in Germany to demand release of Kurd leader
  • The protest followed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statements in late October that he wanted to “reach out to our Kurdish brothers”

FRANKFUR, Germany: Thousands of protesters marched in the western German city of Cologne on Saturday to demand the release of Abdullah Ocalan, leader of the Kurdish PKK militant group who was arrested 25 years ago.
Amid signs of easing tensions between the Turkish government and the PKK, the demonstrators carried banners bearing the image of the PKK’s founder and historic leader, who has been detained in an island prison off the coast of Istanbul since 1999.
The protest followed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statements in late October that he wanted to “reach out to our Kurdish brothers.”
The head of Turkish nationalist party MHP, Erdogan’s main coalition ally, has invited Ocalan, who is serving a life sentence, to speak before parliament to announce the dissolution of the PKK, raising the possibility of his release.
Cologne police reported no incidents during the march, though they did intervene twice to remove “symbols that could have a link to the PKK.”
The PKK is considered a terrorist organization by Turkiye and its Western allies, and showing its symbols is illegal in Germany.
The conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state has caused more than 40,000 deaths since 1984.
Turkiye is the third largest country of origin for asylum seekers in Germany this year, after Syria and Afghanistan, according to the Interior Ministry.
Most of the applicants claim to be ethnic Kurds, according to the German daily FAZ.

 

 


Trump defense nominee’s thin CV, tattoos under scrutiny

Trump defense nominee’s thin CV, tattoos under scrutiny
Updated 7 min 49 sec ago
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Trump defense nominee’s thin CV, tattoos under scrutiny

Trump defense nominee’s thin CV, tattoos under scrutiny
  • Hegseth boasts degrees from elite US universities, including an undergraduate from Princeton and a master’s from Harvard

WASHINGTON: Facing questions about an alleged sexual assault and medieval-themed tattoos linked to extremist groups, Donald Trump’s defense secretary nominee Pete Hegseth would struggle to be confirmed for the job under normal circumstances.
But these are not normal times in Washington.
Hegseth, a Fox News host, was picked by Trump on Tuesday in one of several nominations that wrong-footed even some in his remodeled Republican Party and threw down a challenge to the Senate.
To take up the position as head of the Pentagon to oversee 3.4 million employees, Hegseth will require confirmation from the upper house — and Trump is publicly pressuring lawmakers to show loyalty to his agenda.
Revelations in recent days about the 44-year-old have made his path to power more difficult, including that the thrice-married former soldier was investigated for sexual assault in California in 2017.
No charges were filed over an encounter in a Monterey hotel that saw an unnamed accuser lodge a police report, but the claim has led to questions about the vetting process for the former soldier.
“He was cleared,” his lawyer Timothy Parlatore told NBC News on Friday. “There’s not much more that I can say. It didn’t happen.”
His tattoos have also raised questions, leading to him being stood down by his Army National Guard unit when it was called up for the inauguration of President Joe Biden in 2020.
Speaking on a podcast with fellow veteran Shawn Ryan earlier this month, he revealed that one of his fellow soldiers had flagged him as a possible white nationalist because of his body art.
He claimed it was because of the medieval Jerusalem Cross on his chest, but he also has the words “Deus Vult” on his bicep — a phrase meaning “God wills it” that was used by anti-Muslim crusaders in the Middle Ages.
European medieval imagery and slogans have been widely adopted by white supremacists and neo-Nazis in recent years, but Hegseth says his tattoos simply reflect his faith.
“It’s a Christian symbol,” the author of a 2020 book entitled “American Crusade” said of the Jerusalem Cross.
His handling of medieval weaponry has gone viral in recent days after a video re-emerged of him taking part in a televised axe-throwing contest which saw him miss the target and strike a bystander, who narrowly escaped serious injury.
His CV includes combat experience in Afghanistan and Iraq and he rose to the rank of major in the National Guard — a lowly status compared to the generals and admirals he would oversee at the Pentagon.
Hegseth boasts degrees from elite US universities, including an undergraduate from Princeton and a master’s from Harvard.
Square-jawed and outspoken, he came to Trump’s attention on the “Fox & Friends Weekend” show that he co-hosts.
“You know the military better than anyone,” Trump told him during an appearance in early June, adding that he often thought about putting him in charge of the Pentagon.
A former Republican operative who vetted Hegseth when Trump was considering him for the more junior veterans affairs secretary in 2016 wrote this week that he remained unqualified and an “empty vessel.”
Lacking major experience in foreign affairs or congressional politics, his only civilian management credential included being CEO of a small non-profit, Justin Higgins, who has since switched to the Democrats, wrote for MSNBC.
“It’s not hard to imagine that he would do and say whatever Trump wants,” he added.
Hegseth’s main policy focus in his books and media appearances is tackling what he calls “woke shit” in the armed forces — and he has expressed support for purging the top brass.
He told Ryan on his podcast that his experiences taught him that “the bigotry we saw on the outside (of the army) should not be tolerated inside the military” but that progressive efforts to tackle racism and sexism had gone too far.
“The army that I enlisted in, that I swore an oath to in 2001 and was commissioned in in 2003 looks a lot different than the army of today because we’re focused on a lot of the wrong things,” he said.


India’s Modi launches diplomatic tour in Nigeria

India’s Modi launches diplomatic tour in Nigeria
Updated 40 min 52 sec ago
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India’s Modi launches diplomatic tour in Nigeria

India’s Modi launches diplomatic tour in Nigeria
  • Aside from power politics, Modi’s visit will also seek to enhance economic cooperation, with a number of technical agreements to be signed

ABUJA: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Nigeria on Saturday as the giants of Asia and of Africa press for a greater role in world affairs.
Nigeria’s capital Abuja was the first stop in a tour that will take the Indian premier on to the G20 summit in Brazil, and to Guyana.
The visit was billed by New Delhi as a meeting of the largest democracy in the world and the largest in Africa, or “natural partners.”
“May this visit deepen the bilateral relationship between our nations,” Modi posted on social media on arrival.
Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu posted that the visit would expand “the strategic partnership between both countries.”
Modi will talk with Tinubu at his official residence in Abuja on Sunday.
Photos posted on Modi’s account showed him welcomed by Nigerian officials and a cheering crowd from the country’s 60,000-strong Indian community.
The visit comes amid a revived push by both India and Nigeria for permanent representation on the United Nations Security Council.
The five permanent members of the top UN body — the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain — hold a powerful veto.
In recent years, supporters of a more “multipolar” world have pushed for more African, Asian and Latin American countries to be added to the group.
Nigeria’s 220-million-strong population is comfortably the largest in Africa, but in diplomatic strength it is rivalled by South Africa.
If UN members bow to the pressure to give increased representation to an African country, Abuja and Pretoria could end up competing for the place.
India is the world’s most populous nation, its 1.4 billion people representing a sixth of humanity, and a nuclear-armed power.
It has long sought a permanent UN Security Council seat.
India is also a member of the nine-strong BRICs group with Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates.
Nigeria is a BRICs “partner country” but has not been given full membership, with some observers accusing South Africa of holding them up.
Aside from power politics, Modi’s visit will also seek to enhance economic cooperation, with a number of technical agreements to be signed.
Africa has become a theater of competition between the United States, former colonial powers in Europe, Russia, Turkiye and especially China.
India too has made inroads, and ahead of the trip Modi’s office boasted that more than 200 Indian companies had invested $27 billion in Nigerian manufacturing, becoming major employers.
Nigeria is also a destination for Indian development funds, with $100 million in loans and training programs for local workers.


US health officials report 1st case of new form of mpox in a traveler

US health officials report 1st case of new form of mpox in a traveler
Updated 16 November 2024
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US health officials report 1st case of new form of mpox in a traveler

US health officials report 1st case of new form of mpox in a traveler
  • Mpox is a rare disease caused by infection with a virus that’s in the same family as the one that causes smallpox

NEW YORK: Health officials said Saturday they have confirmed the first US case of a new form of mpox that was first seen in eastern Congo.
The person had traveled to eastern Africa and was treated in Northern California upon return, according to the California Department of Public Health. Symptoms are improving and the risk to the public is low.
The individual was isolating at home and health workers are reaching out to close contacts as a precaution, the state health department said.
Mpox is a rare disease caused by infection with a virus that’s in the same family as the one that causes smallpox. It is endemic in parts of Africa, where people have been infected through bites from rodents or small animals. Milder symptoms can include fever, chills and body aches. In more serious cases, people can develop lesions on the face, hands, chest and genitals.
Earlier this year, scientists reported the emergence of a new form of mpox in Africa that was spread through close contact including through sex. It was widely transmitted in eastern and central Africa. But in cases that were identified in travelers outside of the continent, spread has been very limited, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
More than 3,100 confirmed cases have been reported just since late September, according to the World Health Organization. The vast majority of them have been in three African countries — Burundi, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Since then, cases of travelers with the new mpox form have been reported in Germany, India, Kenya, Sweden, Thailand, Zimbabwe, and the United Kingdom.
Health officials earlier this month said the situation in Congo appears to be stabilizing. The Africa CDC has estimated Congo needs at least 3 million mpox vaccines to stop the spread, and another 7 million vaccines for the rest of Africa. The spread is mostly through sexual transmission as well as through close contact among children, pregnant women and other vulnerable groups.
The current outbreak is different from the 2022 global outbreak of mpox where gay and bisexual men made up the vast majority of cases.


Migration agreement violates medical ethics, aid groups say

Activists stage a demonstration in Shengjin, Albania. (Reuters)
Activists stage a demonstration in Shengjin, Albania. (Reuters)
Updated 16 November 2024
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Migration agreement violates medical ethics, aid groups say

Activists stage a demonstration in Shengjin, Albania. (Reuters)
  • Asylum-seekers should be considered at risk of post-traumatic stress disorder, humanitarian organizations say

ROME: More than a dozen humanitarian organizations that provide healthcare to migrants criticized Italy’s migration deal with Albania as violating the code of medical ethics and urged health workers not to cooperate with it.

The deal, the centerpiece of Premier Giorgia Meloni’s crackdown on human trafficking, calls for some male migrants rescued at sea to have their asylum cases processed while they are detained at two holding centers in Albania, a non-EU nation.
Italy, which has long demanded Europe shoulder more of the continent’s migration problem, has held up the deal with Albania as a model for the continent and a strong deterrent to would-be refugees setting out on smugglers’ boats from North Africa for a better life.
However, the five-year deal, budgeted to cost Italy €670 million ($730 million), has run into a series of obstacles and legal challenges that have prevented even a single migrant from being processed in Albania.

FASTFACT

The five-year deal, budgeted to cost Italy $730 million, has run into a series of obstacles and legal challenges that have prevented even a single migrant from being processed in Albania.

First, construction delays prevented the opening of the centers for several months. Then, after the first two batches of 20 men were brought to Albania this month, Italian courts issued rulings that resulted in them being taken to Italy anyway.
The matter is before the EU’s Court of Justice in Luxembourg, which has been asked to rule on whether the men come from countries deemed safe for return. All 20 hail from Bangladesh and Egypt.
On Friday, the nongovernmental organizations released a detailed analysis of the procedures to screen migrants first on Italian naval ships and then in the Albanian centers to determine if they are “vulnerable.” Only men deemed to be not “vulnerable” are to be sent to Albania.
The aid groups said there were no proper facilities or instruments to make such a determination. And regardless, practically everyone who has set off on the dangerous Mediterranean crossing has endured the physical, psychological, or sexual abuse that should disqualify them from Albanian detention, they said.
The migrants should be considered at risk of post-traumatic stress disorder or other severe physical and mental health consequences, they said.
“The Italy-Albania Protocol violates the code of medical ethics and human rights and puts the physical and psychological health of migrants at risk,” the statement said.
The groups criticized the international organizations cooperating with the project, identifying the International Organization of Migration and the Knights of Malta’s Italian rescue corps as being “complicit” in human rights violations.
The Knights of Malta strongly rejected the claim, denying their doctors and nurses were in any way taking part in the “selection” of migrants or where they disembark, and said none had participated in the transfer of migrants to Albania.
In a statement, the Knights said their medical teams had worked on Italian naval vessels rescuing migrants in the Mediterranean since 2008, providing necessary first aid.
They said that work continues today unchanged.
The Knights “are proud of what has been accomplished in more than 15 years with the coast guard saving human lives at sea and has no intention of stopping this activity which often is the difference between life and death,” the group said.
There was no immediate reply to an email sent to the IOM seeking comment.
The Italian government has said the rights of the migrants would be fully guaranteed in the Albanian centers.
The deal has been blessed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as an example of “out-of-box thinking” to tackle the migration issue.
However, human rights groups say it sets a dangerous precedent and violates Italy’s obligations under international law.
The UN refugee agency has agreed to supervise the first three months of the agreement, and one of its teams is conducting an “independent mission” on board the transfer ship to monitor the screening process.
The legal challenges have come despite the small number of people impacted.
Even though the centers were built to house as many as 3,000 migrants a month, just 20 were transferred in the first two separate ship passages, only to be sent to Italy after the Rome courts intervened.
The statement was signed by Doctors Without Borders, Emergency, Sea-Watch, SOS Mediterranee, and other aid groups.