The nations caught between East and West

Georgia and Moldova have both had to negotiate difficult paths since gaining independence from the Soviet Union. We recall the fall of the Soviet Union as one of an absolute stand against oppression by a great majority of people. And how, one by one and with great sacrifices, each country found its path to freedom. On opposite sides of the Black Sea, Georgia and Moldova are today representative of the struggle between closer ties to the West or to Russia. This struggle for both countries is also linked to territorial disputes, much like Ukraine.

After its independence in 1991, Georgia faced significant instability. The newly independent country faced issues in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, regions seeking autonomy with Russian backing.

Moldova also declared its independence in 1991 and faced challenges rooted in the same ethnic and regional divides. The Russian-speaking Transnistria region subsequently declared independence, leading to a brief armed conflict in 1992. With Russian support, Transnistria established a de facto independent government that remains unrecognized internationally.

In both countries, these territories have symbolized the struggle between attachment to a Soviet past and a wish to align with the West. This is why they keep going through tense election cycles, which move from one side to another, and through protests, while witnessing sporadic violent military conflicts. The lack of a solution has left the disputed areas in a state of frozen conflict.

Disputed territories symbolize the struggle between attachment to a Soviet past and a wish to align with the West

Khaled Abou Zahr

There is nevertheless a qualitative change that has been happening in recent years. Despite the accusations of Russian interference in the sovereign processes of these countries, there is definitely a more divided view on the benefits of the West and its life model. There has been a loss of this silver bullet solution for a better life. The evolution of the West and the progressive agenda it is pushing have provided fertile ground for division.

In both countries, there is something to say, just like in the West, about how those in rural areas vote. Whether in the recent elections in Georgia or the referendum and presidential election in Moldova, rural areas have generally been against the Western model. Indeed, the ruling Georgia Dream party, which won the election with 53 percent of the vote, did not do well among the Georgian diaspora or in urban areas like Tbilisi, but performed very well in rural zones.

The same applies to Moldova, where the pro-EU vote in last month’s referendum won by the narrowest of margins. In the presidential election, opposition candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo was successful in Moldova itself, winning more than 51 percent of the vote. However, Maia Sandu won her second term thanks to voters in the capital and, just as in Georgia, she was completely dominant among expats.

Tensions remain in Georgia, with opposition supporters gathering to protest on Monday for a second consecutive week, condemning the Oct. 26 election as illegitimate. The demonstrators called for a probe into potential ballot irregularities, as well as a new parliamentary election overseen by the international community. Leaders of the opposition promised to regularly demonstrate and boycott parliamentary sessions until their demands were fulfilled. However, these protests do not have the power and unity witnessed during the Rose Revolution of 2003.

Much like the back and forth swings from East to West in Ukraine and its Orange Revolution, pro-Western leaders have disappointed, failing to deliver on their promises and with corruption becoming more apparent. This shows the worst of the Western model, while Western capitals turn a blind eye for obvious, purely geopolitical reasons.

It is more difficult to accuse Russia of meddling in Moldova, as the incumbent was reelected. Yet, it is now a fact that Moscow presents, for a large or at least nonnegligible part of the populations of Georgia and Moldova, a better alignment with their historical values. They view the West’s current social policies and cultural changes as a shift away from their traditional values and hence a threat to their national identity.

They view the West’s current social policies and cultural changes as a shift away from their traditional values

Khaled Abou Zahr

Both countries have strong Orthodox Christian communities and some citizens see Western progressivism as incompatible with their values. Moreover, the collectivism and bureaucracy being pushed is reminiscent of Soviet times. In Moldova, conservative political groups have rightly argued that this trend in Western liberalism threatens their family values and traditional norms. This has caused hurt and led to skepticism toward all EU-related reforms, while giving Moscow more leverage.

We cannot help but see pro-Western protests as deflated versions of the massive and inspiring movements witnessed throughout recent history. There is undoubtedly fatigue and Moscow, unlike its opponents, is consistent and persistent. Yet, the West has not helped its partners in the right way, even when it comes to solving their territorial disputes. There is a parallel to be made between the West’s social policies being disconnected from the realities of soil and culture and its absolutist approach to the territorial issues between these countries and Russia. This is why a more pragmatic approach is needed, while still preserving the sovereignty and specificity of these countries.

Like most countries located in fringe zones and caught between giants, citizens in Moldova and Georgia are stuck between East and West. And there is now growing skepticism regarding fully aligning with either side. There is no doubt that ties with and closer alignment with the EU on the economy and security will support prosperity. Yet, they also understand the necessity to maintain a balanced relationship with Russia, which now seems closer to their historical values. The views of the rural areas should be listened to more closely, as the farmer’s wisdom never fails.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.