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While the world’s eyes are understandably focused on Donald Trump’s victory, a few days earlier a less high-profile election also took place: for the leadership of the UK’s Conservative Party. Though less headline-grabbing, Kemi Badenoch’s capture of 56.5 percent of Conservative Party members’ votes is still an important development. Not only is she the first Black leader of a major UK political party, but her election also signifies a lurch further to the right for Britain’s official opposition.
Badenoch’s election is history-making. Despite their Labour rivals claiming to be Britain’s leading progressives, the Conservatives have a far better record of inclusivity at the top. Badenoch is the fourth woman to lead the Conservatives and the second person from a minority background, after her predecessor Rishi Sunak became the first in 2022. Labour, in contrast, has only ever had white men as its permanent leader.
Moreover, Badenoch has a compelling story that could help the Conservatives reach new voters. She describes herself as “a first-generation immigrant,” having been born in Britain but raised in her parents’ native Nigeria from soon after her birth until the age of 16. In contrast to many on the left, she insists that Britain is the best country in the world in which to be Black, and, as equalities minister under Sunak, favored a low-profile approach to improving racial inequality.
But, like Sunak before her, Badenoch is keen for her politics to be the story rather than her ethnicity. In this regard, her election points to a move further right for the Conservatives. In truth, the Tories have been moving rightward ever since the Brexit referendum of 2016, after the previous decade of David Cameron’s more right of center leadership. Popular support for leaving the EU convinced successive Conservative leaders that populist anti-immigration and anti-EU policies were the route to electoral success. While this helped Boris Johnson win the 2019 general election, his and his successors’ failures in office led to a resounding rejection by the electorate earlier this year, seeing the Tories return their lowest number of MPs in modern history.
Badenoch seems to agree with those Conservatives who believe the election was lost because they were not right wing enough
Christopher Phillips
However, that defeat will not, seemingly, lead to a reconsideration of this rightward shift under Badenoch. While some candidates for the leadership were from the more “Cameroonian” center, such as Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly, both received too few endorsements from MPs. The final two put forward to an all-membership vote, Badenoch and her defeated rival Robert Jenrick, were both right-wingers. During the leadership campaign, Badenoch, who has a reputation as a culture warrior, caused some offence by criticizing maternity pay and support for autistic children in school. Jenrick sought to out-flank Badenoch by offering even more populist policies, pledging to immediately withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights and reduce overall migration to zero.
By resisting similar pledges, Badenoch managed to secure endorsements as the least bad option from some party centrists, such as Cameron’s Chancellor George Osborne. Yet, on her election, the new leader showed few signs of tacking back to the center. She argued that the Conservative election defeat was due to a “loss of public trust,” because “promises on immigration and on tax were not kept.” Though it is early days, such comments suggest Badenoch agrees with those Conservatives who believe the election was lost because they were not right wing enough, hemorrhaging votes to Nigel Farage’s populist Reform party. Such an analysis glosses over the fact they lost far more seats to Labour and the centrist Liberal Democrats.
A further sign of this rightward tilt is the front bench team Badenoch has put together. Both Tugendhat and Cleverly declined to join the new shadow Cabinet. With a small pool of MPs to choose from, Badenoch has still populated her team largely from the right of the party and two of the three shadow “great offices of state” available were given to right-wing allies: Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp and Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel.
It is possible she will be a huge success, leading a right-wing Conservative government to power. However, history is against her
Christopher Phillips
Patel’s appointment is particularly notable. Though she ran for leader herself, she swiftly backed Badenoch when eliminated. An experienced Cabinet minister, having formerly been home secretary and international development secretary, she was fired from the latter role in 2017 for holding 14 unofficial meetings with Israeli ministers, businesspeople and a senior lobbyist during a holiday to Israel. Known as staunchly pro-Israel and having formerly asked to send UK aid money to the Israeli army for humanitarian work, it seems likely that the Conservatives will line up even more behind Israel when it comes to Middle East policy.
How much real impact this will have is, of course, questionable. Opposition parties, especially those reeling from a historic defeat, have limited influence over UK policy. It is possible that Patel will press the Labour government to be more supportive of Israel but, with an enormous majority in Parliament, Prime Minister Keir Starmer will probably be more wary of the pro-Palestinian voices within his own party than the pro-Israeli voices on the opposition benches. Similarly, it will likely be some time before Badenoch is able to achieve the kind of popularity that puts Starmer under pressure to bend his domestic agenda, if she ever does.
Of course, it is possible that Badenoch will be a huge success, leading a right-wing Conservative government to power. However, history is against her. The last new UK leader to take a party from defeat immediately back to government within one election cycle was Margaret Thatcher in 1979. A more chastening historical parallel is the fate of the Conservatives when they last suffered a comparable landslide defeat, in 1997, when it took them 13 years and four leaders before returning to power. They too, like Badenoch, opted to move rightward in response to defeat and only came to power when Cameron brought the party back to the center. Of course, we live in different times today. Badenoch will be hoping that the trends of populism seen in Europe, the US and elsewhere mean her rightward shift will deliver results without having to make such centrist compromises. Trump’s recent victory may prove instructive in this regard.
- Christopher Phillips is professor of international relations at Queen Mary University of London and author of “Battleground: Ten Conflicts that Explain the New Middle East.” X: @cjophillips