Trump’s election could assure a conservative Supreme Court majority for decades
The decisive outcome spares the court from having to wade into election disputes. It also seems likely to change the tenor of cases that come before the justices, including on abortion and immigration
Updated 1 min 23 sec ago
AP
WASHINGTON: Donald Trump has already appointed three Supreme Court justices. In his second term, he could well have a chance to name two more, creating a high court with a Trump-appointed majority that could serve for decades.
The decisive outcome spares the court from having to wade into election disputes. It also seems likely to change the tenor of cases that come before the justices, including on abortion and immigration.
The two eldest justices — Clarence Thomas, 76, and Samuel Alito, 74 — could consider stepping down knowing that Trump, a Republican, would nominate replacements who might be three decades younger and ensure conservative domination of the court through the middle of the century, or beyond.
Trump would have a long list of candidates to choose from among the more than 50 men and women he appointed to federal appeals courts, including some of Thomas’ and Alito’s former law clerks.
If both men were to retire, they probably would not do so at once to minimize disruption to the court. Justices David Souter and John Paul Stevens retired a year apart, in the first two years of Barack Obama’s presidency.
Thomas has said on more than one occasion that he has no intention of retiring.
But Ed Whelan, a conservative lawyer who was once a law clerk to Justice Antonin Scalia, wrote on the National Review’s Bench Memos blog that Thomas will realize that the best way to burnish his legacy is to have a like-minded justice replace him and retire before the midterm congressional elections.
If Thomas stays on the court until near his 80th birthday, in June 2028, he will surpass William O. Douglas as the longest-serving justice. Douglas was on the court for more than 36 years.
There’s no guarantee Republicans will have their Senate majority then, and Thomas saw what happened when one of his colleagues didn’t retire when she might have, Whelan wrote. “But it would be foolish of him to risk repeating Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s mistake — hanging on only to die in office and be replaced by someone with a very different judicial philosophy,” Whelan wrote.
Ginsburg died in September 2020, less than two months before Joe Biden’s election as president. Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett to fill the vacancy and majority Republicans rammed her nomination through the Senate before the election.
Barrett, along with Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, Trump’s other two high court appointees, joined Thomas and Alito to overturn Roe v. Wade and end the national right to abortion.
Along with Chief Justice John Roberts, the conservatives also have expanded gun rights, ended affirmative action in college admissions, reined in Biden administration efforts to deal with climate change and weakened federal regulators by overturning a 40-year-old decision that had long been a target of business and conservative interests.
The court’s landmark decision didn’t end its involvement with abortion: the justices also considered cases this year on emergency abortions in states with bans and access to medication abortion.
The new administration seems likely to drop Biden administration guidance saying doctors need to provide emergency abortions if necessary to protect a woman’s life or health, even in states where abortion is otherwise banned. That would end a case out of Idaho that the justices sent back to lower courts over the summer.
Access to the abortion medication mifepristone is also facing a renewed challenge in lower courts. That suit could have an uphill climb in lower courts after the Supreme Court preserved access to the drug earlier this year, but abortion opponents have floated other ways a conservative administration could restrict access to the medication. That includes enforcement of a 19th century “anti-vice” law called the Comstock Act that prohibits the mailing of drugs that could be used in abortion, though Trump himself hasn’t stated a clear position on mifepristone.
Immigration cases also are bubbling up through the courts over the Obama era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program. Trump tried to end DACA in his first term, but he was thwarted by the Supreme Court. Now, the conservative appeals court based in New Orleans is considering whether DACA is legal.
One of the first Trump-era fights to reach the Supreme Court concerned the ban on visitors from some Muslim-majority countries. The justices ended up approving the program, after two revisions.
He spoke during the campaign about bringing back the travel ban.
Trump has vowed to shake some of democracy’s pillars
Updated 8 sec ago
AP
WASHINGTON: American presidential elections are a moment when the nation holds up a mirror to look at itself. They are a reflection of values and dreams, of grievances and scores to be settled. The results say much about a country’s character, future and core beliefs. On Tuesday, America looked into that mirror gave Donald Trump a far-reaching victory in the most contested states. He won for many reasons. One of them was that a formidable number of Americans, from different angles, said the state of democracy was a prime concern. The candidate they chose had campaigned through a lens of darkness, calling the country “garbage” and his opponent “stupid,” a “communist” and “the b-word.” Even as Trump prevailed, most voters said they were very or somewhat concerned that electing Trump would bring the US closer to being an authoritarian country, according to the AP VoteCast survey. Still, 1 in 10 of those voters backed him anyway. Nearly 4 in 10 Trump voters said they wanted complete upheaval in how the country is run. In Trump’s telling, the economy was in shambles, even when almost every measure said otherwise, and the border was an open sore leeching murderous migrants, when the actual number of crossings had dropped precipitously. All this came wrapped in his signature language of catastrophism. Trump’s win demonstrated his keen ear for what stirs emotions, especially the sense of millions of voters of being left out — whether because someone else cheated or got special treatment or otherwise fell to the ravages of the enemy within. So the centuries-old democracy delivered power to the presidential candidate who gave voters fair warning he might take core elements of that democracy apart. After already having tried to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power after his 2020 loss, Trump mused that he would be justified if he decided to pursue “the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution.” One rough measure of whether Trump means what he says is how many times he says it. His direct threat to try to end or suspend the Constitution was largely a one-off. But the 2024 campaign was thick with his vows that, if realized, would upend democracy’s basic practices, protections and institutions as Americans have known them. And now, he says after his win, “I will govern by a simple motto: promises made, promises kept.” Through the campaign, to lusty cheers, Trump promised to use presidential power over the justice system to go after his personal political adversaries. He then raised the stakes further by threatening to enlist military force against such domestic foes — “the enemy from within.” Doing so would shatter any semblance of Justice Department independence and turn soldiers against citizens in ways not seen in modern times. He’s promised to track down and deport immigrants in massive numbers, raising the prospect of using military or military-style assets for that as well. Spurred by his fury and denialism over his 2020 defeat, Trump’s supporters in some state governments have already engineered changes in voting procedures, an effort centered on the false notion that the last election was rigged against him. Yet another pillar of the system is also in his sights — the non-political civil service and its political masters, whom Trump together calls the deep state. He means the generals who didn’t always heed him last time, but this time shall. He means the Justice Department people who refused to indulge his desperate effort to cook up votes he didn’t get in 2020. He means the bureaucrats who dragged their heels on parts of his first-term agenda and whom Trump now wants purged. But if some or all of these tenets of modern democracy are to fall, it will be through the most democratic of means. Voters chose him — and by extension, this — not Democrat Kamala Harris, the vice president. And by early measures, it was a clean election, just like 2020. Eric Dezenhall, a scandal-management expert who has followed Trump’s business and political career, said it’s not always easy to suss out what Trump truly intends to do and what might be bluster. “There are certain things that he says because they cross his brain at a certain moment,” Dezenhall said. “I don’t put stock in that. I put stock in themes, and there is a theme of vengeance.” The voters also gave Trump’s Republicans clear control of the Senate, and therefore majority say in whether to confirm the loyalists Trump will nominate for top jobs in government. Trump controls his party in ways he didn’t in his first term, when major figures in his administration repeatedly frustrated his most outlier ambitions. “The fact that a once proud people chose, twice, to demean itself with a leader like Donald Trump will be one of history’s great cautionary tales,” said Cal Jillson, a constitutional and presidential scholar at Southern Methodist University whose new book, “Race, Ethnicity, and American Decline,” anticipated some of the existential issues of the election. From the political left, any threats to democracy were not on the mind of independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont when he offered a blistering critique of the Democratic campaign. “It should come as no surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working people would find that the working class has abandoned them,” he said in a statement. “Will they understand the pain and political alienation that tens of millions of Americans are experiencing?” He concluded: “Probably not.” Guardrails remain. One is the Supreme Court, whose conservative majority loosened the leash on presidential behavior in its ruling expanding their immunity from prosecution. The court has not been fully tested on how far it will go to accommodate Trump’s actions and agenda. And which party will control the House is not yet known. Among voters under 30, just under half went for Trump, an improvement from his 2020 performance, according to the AP VoteCast survey of more than 120,000 voters. Roughly one-third of those voters said they wanted total upheaval in how the country is run. By Trump’s words, at least, that’s what they’ll get.
Kamala Harris concedes election to Trump but vows to fight on
“A fundamental principle of American democracy is that when we lose an election, we accept the results," she said, adding: "anyone who seeks the public trust must honor it"
She encouraged her supporters not to give up even in their disappointment and said: “Sometimes the fight takes a while. That doesn’t mean we won’t win.”
Updated 1 min 24 sec ago
Reuters
WASHINGTON: US Vice President Kamala Harris vowed to keep fighting for the ideals that powered her presidential campaign on Wednesday in a concession speech that acknowledged President-elect Donald Trump’s win while warning of potential dark times to come.
“While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign,” she told supporters, many of them in tears, at her alma mater Howard University, a historically Black college in Washington.
Harris, her voice at times wavering, pledged to continue fighting for women’s rights and against gun violence and to “fight for the dignity that all people deserve.”
She said she had called Trump, congratulated him on his triumph in Tuesday’s presidential election and promised to engage in a peaceful transfer of power.
“The outcome of this election is not what we wanted, not what we fought for, not what we voted for, but hear me when I say — hear me when I say: The light of America’s promise will always burn bright,” she said.
The somber mood was in striking contrast to the homecoming celebration a few weeks ago on the Howard campus when thousands of students and alumni gathered ahead of what they hoped would be the election of the country’s first graduate of historically Black Colleges and Universities as president.
Harris addressed a crowd on Wednesday that included former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, aides in President Joe Biden’s White House and thousands of fans. Harris’ campaign anthem, Beyonce’s “Freedom,” played as she entered the stage.
Her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, joined the crowd.
“A fundamental principle of American democracy is that when we lose an election, we accept the results. That principle, as much as any other, distinguishes democracy from monarchy or tyranny, and anyone who seeks the public trust must honor it,” Harris said, in a nod at Trump’s efforts, before he won, to sow doubt about the legitimacy of the election.
Trump claims falsely that he won the 2020 election, which he lost to Biden.
Harris encouraged her supporters, especially young people, not to give up even in their disappointment and said: “Sometimes the fight takes a while. That doesn’t mean we won’t win.”
Harris rose to the top of the Democratic ticket in July after Biden stepped aside. She brought new-found enthusiasm and cash to the effort, but she struggled to overcome voters’ concerns about the economy and immigration.
“I know many people feel like we are entering a dark time, but for the benefit of us all, I hope that is not the case. But here’s the thing: America, if it is, let us fill the sky with the light of a brilliant, brilliant billion of stars ... the light of optimism, of faith, of truth and service,” she said.
Thousands had gathered at the school on Tuesday night for what they hoped would be a historic victory for the first woman to become president. They came back on Wednesday to show their support and rue her loss.
Jamela Joseph, 31, a doctoral student at Howard, said: “America had its opportunity to move forward in a progressive and intentional manner, and as a nation it has, you know, shown that it’s going to repeat itself and its history and its legacy of upholding white supremacy racism, in terms of treating women as second class citizens.”
Donna Bruce, 72, said she had come to show love and respect for what Harris had done. She noted she had just seen a little girl with a T-shirt that said: “A Black girl will save the world.”
“I still believe that,” Bruce said. “It may not be this Black girl, but I believe a Black girl will.”
Russia says forces capture two more settlements in eastern Ukraine
In September, Moscow’s forces advanced at their fastest rate since March 2022, according to open source data, despite Ukraine seizing a part of Russia’s southern Kursk region
Updated 3 min 55 sec ago
Reuters
MOSCOW: Russian forces have captured two more settlements in areas of heavy military activity in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Wednesday.
Ukraine’s military noted fighting around both villages in eastern sectors of the 1,000-km (600-mile) front line, but did not acknowledge that either had fallen into Russian hands.
The Russian ministry identified the villages as Maksymivka, just north of the hilltop town of Vuhledar, captured by Russian forces last months after long months of fighting, and Antonivka, near the embattled town of Kurakhove, further north.
The General Staff of Ukraine’s military said Kyiv’s forces had repelled two attacks near Maksymivka and a nearby village in the vicinity of Vuhledar in Donetsk region. Four clashes were still going on.
The general staff reported a “tense” situation around the city of Kurakhove, with 39 Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions. It listed Antonivka as one of several villages in the area where Moscow’s troops were trying to advance.
Reuters could not independently verify battlefield reports from either side.
A Ukrainian officer, in a radio interview, said Russian forces were advancing in parts of the Kurakhove area, making the situation particularly difficult.
“There is a danger of encirclement,” Nazar Voitenko, press officer of the 33rd separate brigade, told US-funded Radio Liberty.
“I cannot currently assess the issue of withdrawal, but the situation is indeed extremely challenging. Compared to the summer, it has changed quite rapidly.”
After failing in their initial attempt to move on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, Russian forces have focused on capturing the eastern Donbas region, made up of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Russian forces hold about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory.
In September, Moscow’s forces advanced at their fastest rate since March 2022, according to open source data, despite Ukraine seizing a part of Russia’s southern Kursk region.
A-listers fail to win Harris votes as Trump lauds famous ‘bros’
Celebrity endorsements have long been part of the fabric of US elections, harking back to the days when Frank Sinatra wrangled the ‘Rat Pack’ to support John F. Kennedy in 1960
Donald Trump, backed by Elon Musk, also received a last-minute endorsement from Joe Rogan, the influential podcast host
Updated 07 November 2024
AFP
LOS ANGELES, United States: A raft of celebrities from Taylor Swift and Beyonce to George Clooney and Harrison Ford proved unable to prevent Kamala Harris’s crushing defeat in the US election, underlining the limited impact of sweeping star endorsements on voters.
Instead it was Donald Trump and the Republicans — who received scant support from the entertainment industry at large, but tapped into a targeted subset of well-known, hypermasculine influencers — who won comfortably.
So, did the Democrats’ long-standing Hollywood and music industry connections, including last-minute rally appearances from Lady Gaga and Jennifer Lopez, make any difference at all in the end?
“Not in this election, clearly,” said New York University arts professor Laurence Maslon.
“At the end of the day, people probably realize that Beyonce and George Clooney don’t have to worry about the cost of gas or the cost of eggs — so maybe they’re sort of irrelevant,” he told AFP.
Celebrity endorsements have long been part of the fabric of US elections, harking back to the days when Frank Sinatra wrangled the “Rat Pack” to support John F. Kennedy in 1960.
Even this year, Hollywood-led fundraisers helped raise tens of millions of dollars for Harris’s record-breaking campaign war chest.
But their impact in actually influencing votes has always been a “mixed bag,” said Arizona State University associate professor Margaretha Bentley, who teaches a public policy course on Taylor Swift.
“It’s never going to be the golden ticket that everybody’s looking for,” she said.
Mark Harvey, author of “Celebrity Influence: Politics, Persuasion, and Issue-Based Advocacy,” agreed that we “shouldn’t be terribly surprised” by the lack of celebrity impact.
“There isn’t a real strong science behind this idea that celebrities can influence people to vote for candidates,” he said.
Famous supporters have only ever been effective when advocating on very specific issues on which they are widely regarded as expert, added Harvey.
As Donald Trump delivered his victory speech early Wednesday, the new president-elect was flanked by — and showered praise on — famous names from the world of sport.
UFC boss Dana White was lovingly hailed as “tough” and “a piece of work,” while golfer Bryson DeChambeau was celebrated as “fantastic” and even having a “slightly longer” drive than the golf-loving Trump.
Loud cheers — and a significant portion of Trump’s address — were devoted to his best-known supporter of all, tech billionaire Elon Musk.
Trump also received a last-minute endorsement from Joe Rogan, the influential host of one of the world’s top podcasts.
The Republican may have benefited from these associations because, in an election “largely driven by cultural issues, one of the most potent cultural issues was masculinity,” said Harvey.
“This sort of ‘be a real man,’ the Trump ‘macho’ sort of thing... it’s the kind of thing that Joe Rogan plays all the time.”
For the Democrats, this latest scarring experience will require a “deep self-analysis... of what they did and didn’t do, and what might have been successful,” including with celebrity endorsements, said Bentley.
Ashley Spillane, author of the report “Celebrities Strengthening Our Culture of Democracy,” agreed there was “debate” about the “value and impact of celebrity endorsements of candidates.”
But there is still “robust evidence that celebrities do have a real impact in promoting overall, nonpartisan civic engagement,” she wrote via email, pointing to Swift’s endorsement of Harris, which was credited with driving 400,000 people to a voter registration site.
Even if their endorsements failed, Hollywood celebrities showed no indication Wednesday that they would remain silent.
Waking up to the news of Trump’s victory, several well-known figures took to social media to vent their frustrations.
Oscar winner Jamie Lee Curtis said Trump’s win would usher in “a sure return to a more restrictive, some fear draconian time.”
“Fascist with total power... That may have been the last free election,” wrote actor John Cusack. “Horror is coming.”
Pop singer Cardi B, who appeared at a Harris rally last Friday, simply wrote: “I hate yall bad.”
‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East
President-elect expected to prioritize ending wars in Gaza and Lebanon, pressure Iran, push for normalization deals
Arab leaders considered Trump a valuable partner and a robust ally against regional militia groups
Updated 07 November 2024
Robert Edwards
LONDON: Defying almost all election predictions, Donald Trump, or “Abu Ivanka” as he is commonly known in the region, has secured what he has called a “powerful mandate” to form the next US administration, with massive implications not just for domestic politics but for the international community, including the Middle East.
Since his election victory was confirmed on Wednesday, messages of congratulations have flooded in from Arab capitals, buoyed by the opportunities for deeper strategic cooperation that a second Trump presidency likely has in store for the region.
Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated Trump in separate cables on Wednesday, with King Salman praising the “historically close (bilateral) relations that everyone seeks to strengthen and develop in all fields.”
On May 21, 2017, US President Donald Trump (R) joined Saudi Arabia's King Salman and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (L) led the inauguration of the Global Center for Combating Extremist Ideology "Etidal" in Riyadh. (Saudi Royal Palace/AFP/File photo)
UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan sent his “sincere congratulations” to Trump in a message on X, saying: “The UAE looks forward to continuing to work with our partners in the US towards a future of opportunity, prosperity, and stability for all.”
Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani posted on X that he looks “forward to working together again to strengthen our strategic relationship and partnership.”
Egypt also welcomed the result, with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi posting on social media: “We look forward to working together in bringing and maintaining regional peace and stability and bolstering the strategic partnership between Egypt and the United States.”
While almost all of the national polls had placed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead in the race to succeed President Joe Biden in the Oval Office, there were clear signs that ethnic minority voters were beginning to turn their backs on the Democrats — among them Arab Americans.
Supporters of former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attend a late night hookah bar election watch party in Dearborn, Michigan, on November 6, 2024. Incoming president Donald Trump pulled off a surprising feat late in the 2024 campaign, winning over swathes of Muslim voters with a promise to end bloodshed in the Middle East. (Photo by Issam AHMED / AFP)
An Arab News-YouGov poll conducted in October showed that Biden’s stance on Israel and the war in Gaza had contributed to the alienation of Arab American voters, leading a slim majority of those surveyed to say they would be voting for the Republicans in several swing states.
Some 45 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Trump, while 43 percent said they would opt for Harris, despite the fact that 40 percent of those polled described themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans, and 23 percent as independents.
Although Trump was perceived as being more supportive of Israel than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him. Those predictions appear to have played out, with Arab American voters in the swing state of Michigan, for instance, voting for Trump in huge numbers, helping tip the result against the Democrats.
Demonstrators protest in support of the Palestinians who have died in Gaza outside of the Arab American National Museum in Dearborn, Michigan, on August 11, 2024. (AFP)
Trump won 42.5 percent of Dearborn’s vote, compared to 36 percent for Kamala Harris, officials reported. Green Party candidate Jill Stein won 18 percent.
“The reason for this seismic paradigm shift in the Arab American and Muslim voting electorate is because they responded to President Trump’s message of peace,” Oubai Shahbandar, a former defense intelligence officer and Middle East analyst with the Pentagon, told Arab News.
“They responded to President Trump’s outreach to these communities, which was spearheaded by his foreign policy envoy Richard Grenell. It was a message of peace. It was a message of inclusion. They brought in Muslim American community leaders and imams like Belal Alzuhairi, like Amer Ghalib, like Bill Bazzi, and the strategy has paid off.
“It was also a rejection by the Arab American and Muslim American or Middle Eastern community of the past four years of failed Biden-Harris policies, both domestically and when it comes to the foreign policy — a foreign policy that was widely viewed by these communities as enabling the mass killings of Muslims and Arabs across the Middle East.
“And there was a desire for real change, a new way forward. And the numbers speak for themselves. Muslim Americans and Arab Americans wanted President Trump back in the White House.”
Born in 1946 in New York, Trump was a prominent businessman and media personality before going on to serve as president between 2017 and 2021. His political career began in 2015 when he ran for the Republican Party nomination promising immigration reform, trade renegotiation, and a tough stance against Iran.
He won the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton with a focus on “America First” policies, which included tax cuts, deregulation, and shifting foreign policy. However, his presidency was marked by polarizing actions, including his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, two impeachment trials, and often divisive rhetoric on migration, abortion rights, and democracy.
When Trump enters the White House for the second time on Jan. 20, his in-tray will be stacked high with pressing issues jostling for attention, from the cost-of-living crisis and border controls, which were clearly top priorities for US voters, to the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon.
“Trump’s victory exceeded expectations and could prove historic,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Washington D.C.-based Middle East Institute, told Arab News.
Firas Maksad. (AN file photo)
“If they also win the House, this might be the first time Republicans control all branches of government since World War One. It ushers in an era where America lurches decisively to the right.”
If Trump’s second term is anything like his first, tectonic shifts can be expected on foreign policy — shaped by a blend of “America first” isolationism and his aggressive deal-making style, designed to disengage the US from “the endless wars,” break costly stalemates, and promote American business interests over foreign rivals.
“The Trump foreign policy tent includes both foreign policy hawks and isolationists,” said Maksad. “We will need to watch closely to determine who will come to dominate in key foreign policy appointments. Figures like Grenell or Mike Pompeo and Tom Cotton.”
Richard Grenell, former acting Director of National Intelligence, speaks on stage during the Republican National Convention n Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 17, 2024. (AFP/File)
While many people in the Arab world are wary of Trump’s close ties to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, others view him as an ally in the effort to rein in Iran-backed militia groups since the killing of the Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in 2020.
After Trump’s 2016 election victory, his first overseas visit as president was to Riyadh, where in May 2017 he held bilateral talks with the Saudi government and two multilateral meetings with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council and other Arab and Muslim countries.
In an interview with Al Arabiya in October, Trump said the US-Saudi Arabia relationship “was great with capital letters. G-R-E-A-T, great” when he was in the White House and that the crown prince is “a great guy.”
“(I have) so much respect for the king and so much respect for Mohammed who is doing so great,” Trump said. “He’s a real visionary, he’s done things that nobody else would have even thought about.”
US President Donald Trump (R) meets with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House on March 20, 2018 in Washington, DC. (AFP/File)
Trump’s previous administration strengthened the military and economic capacities of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, notably through a boost in trade, support for their regional ambitions, and a hardline stance against Iran, including his withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
“Terrible news for Tehran,” Mohammed A. Salih, a non-resident senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Middle East Program, said in a thread on X on Wednesday, responding to Trump’s election win.
“Expect a renewed maximum pressure campaign, sanctions against Tehran, and an increased likelihood of Israeli strikes within Iran against strategic sites, especially with Iran’s air defense now immensely weakened.”
A new Trump presidency is also likely to be bad news for Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia, as it will likely come under further regional pressure and a stronger military campaign by the US and Israel in the wake of its attacks on Red Sea shipping in solidarity with Hamas.
This handout photograph taken on March 6, 2024 and released by the Indian Navy shows the Barbados-flagged bulk carrier following a attack by Yemen's Houthi militia, in the Gulf of Aden. (AFP/file)
The picture is unclear on Gaza, however, where Israel has been at war with Palestinian militant groups since the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. Likewise in Lebanon, where Israel is at war with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, the implications of a Trump win are uncertain.
While Trump is known as a staunch supporter of Israel, having recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the US Embassy there from Tel Aviv during his last presidency, he also showed a determination to find a solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The previous Trump administration brokered the Abraham Accords in 2020, which established diplomatic and economic ties between Israel and Arab states including the UAE and Bahrain by decoupling normalization from recognition of Palestinian statehood.
His return to the White House could see the revival of the Abraham Accords and the drive toward Arab-Israeli normalization, which many had written off in the wake of the Gaza war. He has also pledged to end the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon on day one of his presidency but has not outlined what a solution might look like for the Palestinian people.
In this photo taken on Sept. 15, 2020, then US President Donald Trump celebrates with
Bahrain FM Abdullatif al-Zayani (L), Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu (2L), and UAE's FM Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan after the signing of the Abraham Accords at the White House in Washington, DC. (AFP)
“Trump will try to bring the wars in Gaza and Lebanon to a close, pressure Iran, and push forward on normalization,” said Maksad.
“However, his ability to deliver might be limited by the agency of local actors and the complexity of Israeli politics. There is also uncertainty about whether a Republican president can get enough Democrats in the Senate to approve a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, a crucial part of any pathway towards normalization.”
Although Trump’s victory is likely to be viewed in Europe and perhaps China as ushering in a period of unpredictability, Middle Eastern leaders are likely to welcome a return to a more transactional relationship with Washington — one that is shaped by mutual trade and security interests without perceived interference in their domestic affairs.
“Trump’s victory will support His Highness the Crown Prince’s vision in the region for the benefit of all,” Saudi commentator Mohammed Al-Mubarak posted on X. “Even global companies, especially American ones, will have an active role in this renaissance.”
