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As tensions between Israel and the Iranian government escalate, the conflict is moving beyond mere asymmetric warfare toward direct strikes on each other’s soil. This new phase of hostilities raises concerns about the military capabilities of both countries, as analysts and experts assess the strengths and weaknesses of their armed forces.
To understand the full scope of the potential confrontation, it is essential to recognize that any war between these two nations would not only devastate them, but could also draw in other regional and global players, including state and non-state actors. The strategic importance of both Israel and Iran makes this conflict a potential trigger for wider regional instability.
Military capabilities can be analyzed through several categories that reveal the operational readiness and strategic power of a nation. These categories provide a framework to evaluate how Israel and Iran compare.
A country’s defense budget serves as a crucial indicator of its military strength and priorities. It reflects the resources dedicated to developing and maintaining military assets, such as personnel, technology and weapons systems.
Israel’s defense budget is significantly larger than Iran’s, bolstered by substantial US military aid
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
Israel’s defense budget is significantly larger than Iran’s, bolstered by substantial US military aid. Israel’s annual defense spending is currently $23.4 billion, with an additional $3.18 billion annually provided by the US as part of a decade-long agreement. This financial backing enables Israel to procure advanced weapons systems, such as the Iron Dome and F-35 stealth fighters, meaning it is most likely the technologically superior force.
Iran spends considerably less due to international sanctions and economic constraints. Its 2023 defense spending was reported to be $10.3 billion, although it might be higher due to undisclosed funds used for its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran compensates for its lower budget by relying on asymmetric tactics, such as using proxies and deploying missile forces capable of striking its regional adversaries.
Manpower is a vital component of military strength. In terms of active personnel, Israel maintains about 170,000 soldiers in its defense forces, with a reserve force that can quickly be mobilized, bringing the total potential military manpower to about 465,000. The Israeli military is highly trained, with mandatory military service ensuring a constant supply of well-prepared soldiers. However, Iran’s available manpower significantly surpasses Israel’s. It has an estimated 587,000 active personnel across its regular army, IRGC and paramilitary forces.
The IRGC, a powerful institution within Iran, also oversees the country’s regional proxy forces, allowing it to extend its military reach beyond its borders. In terms of force readiness, however, both countries are generally considered trained and equipped due to continuous engagements and modern training programs.
When it comes to weapons systems, Israel appears to enjoy a technological edge, particularly in terms of air power. It possesses 339 combat aircraft, including F-35s and F-16s, alongside various advanced drones, allowing it to maintain air superiority in the region. Israel also has cutting-edge missile defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow, which can intercept short- and medium-range missiles. Its logistical network is robust, ensuring rapid mobility and deployment of forces.
Iran compensates for its lack of air superiority with a vast arsenal of ballistic missiles, including the Shahab-3 and Fateh-110, which are capable of reaching targets across the Middle East. Iran also has a growing drone capability and relies heavily on its ability to deploy asymmetric warfare tactics. Its logistical capabilities, while not as advanced as Israel’s, are boosted by its network of regional proxies, particularly in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria.
Geographically, Iran has a strategic advantage due to its location along the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes. In the event of conflict, Iran could threaten or disrupt global oil supplies by blocking or attacking ships in this region. Israel, on the other hand, has a smaller geographical footprint, although its proximity to other countries allows it to rapidly project military power in the Middle East.
Iran has a growing drone capability and relies heavily on its ability to deploy asymmetric warfare tactics
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
One of the key advantages for Iran is its ability to leverage regional proxies. Israel, meanwhile, benefits from its close alliances with the US, which guarantees it superior military technology and intelligence support.
When it comes to technical sophistication, Israel’s military is considered to be one of the most advanced in the world. Its intelligence services, cyber capabilities and precision-guided weaponry give it a qualitative edge in modern warfare. It is also regarded as one of the globe’s top countries in terms of missile defense technology, electronic warfare and intelligence gathering, supported by satellite technology. Meanwhile, Iran, although not on par with Israel’s advanced technologies, has made significant strides in developing its own indigenous defense technologies.
Iran’s cyberwarfare capabilities are growing and its missile technology is considered among the most advanced in the region. While lacking the sophistication of Israel’s military, Iran compensates with its sheer number of missiles and a capacity to disrupt its enemies through unconventional warfare.
Lastly, alliances and partnerships play a critical role in shaping military capabilities. Iran’s primary ally, Russia, has for years provided it with military equipment and political support. But Moscow’s involvement in Ukraine has somewhat constrained its ability to focus on the Middle East. Tehran also maintains ties with China, although this relationship appears less focused on military support. Israel, on the other hand, enjoys an unparalleled alliance with the US, which provides it with both military hardware and political backing. In the event of a conflict, American support for Israel could tip the balance in its favor, as seen in previous wars.
In conclusion, while a full-scale war between Israel and Iran would be devastating for these two countries and the broader region, their military capabilities reveal different strengths and weaknesses. Both remain formidable in their own right, but their strategies and military doctrines reflect very different approaches to warfare.
- Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh