https://arab.news/8943y
At last week’s EU-Gulf Cooperation Council summit, the leaders present spent much of their time discussing how to hone their newly founded strategic partnership to stop the Middle East’s conflicts, especially those in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon, as well as the wider Israel-Iran cycle of violence.
The two blocs have an unprecedented opportunity to lead in light of the US’ political paralysis, Russia’s war preoccupations and China’s reluctance to lead.
However, despite its considerable weight, a lack of unity has so far hampered the EU’s ability to play an effective role beyond providing aid and regular pronouncements. Despite being the world’s third-largest economy after the US and China, it has chosen not to turn that power into an effective diplomatic initiative. It has preferred to act in the US’ shadow, deferring to the leadership of a clearly paralyzed government. The transitional nature of the EU’s current leadership has added to this reluctance, waiting for the new leadership to take office over the coming weeks and months.
Nevertheless, there was a consensus in Brussels on the parameters for a resolution of the conflict. On Gaza, both support UN Security Council resolutions, especially 2735, which calls for an immediate, full and complete ceasefire, the release of hostages and the exchange of Palestinian prisoners, as well as immediate and unimpeded humanitarian access to the civilian population and the safe and effective distribution of humanitarian assistance at scale throughout the Gaza Strip, where famine is looming. They also support UNRWA and other UN agencies in Gaza and the West Bank.
They need to put together a comprehensive plan, not only for a ceasefire and humanitarian aid, but to address the root causes of the conflict
Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg
On the underlying Israel-Palestine issue, the two blocs agree on resolving it according to UN resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative, meaning the establishment of an independent and viable Palestinian state on the 1967 borders. Both condemn settler violence in the West Bank and Israel’s unilateral actions to alter the historical status quo there.
The EU last month joined Saudi Arabia in launching the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution in New York. It also joined Saudi Arabia’s September 2023 initiative to revive the peace process and the Arab Peace Initiative.
Achieving anything of significance on this issue requires US involvement, but it is not likely that the Biden administration will put enough pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire, let alone the settlement of the underlying conflict, before the Nov. 5 election. However, there is a window of opportunity after the election, regardless of who wins. There are 75 crucial days between Election Day and Jan. 20, Biden’s last day in office. Previous administrations were able to use that period to make important decisions on peace in the Middle East. Biden could use it to advance US interests and help his own legacy, which has been tarnished by this conflict.
During the remaining days leading up to Nov. 5, the GCC and EU could prepare the ground, through closer EU-GCC coordination, by building on the consensus reached last week in Brussels. They need to put together a comprehensive plan, not only for a ceasefire and humanitarian aid, but to address the root causes of the conflict. To secure international support, the plan has to build on the global consensus demonstrated by UN resolutions.
The plan should be a regional one, taking consideration of all the relevant stakeholders. It has to address the concerns of both sides, including Israel’s security concerns and full enfranchisement of the Palestinians, according to all relevant UN resolutions.
Strengthening the Palestinian Authority is essential to enable it to carry out the duties of the state and provide basic services. Introducing economic and political reforms is also essential for the smooth functioning of the state and to encourage donors and investors to help the Palestinian economy.
There needs to be international support for this plan throughout, to provide the incentives and the discipline, or carrots and sticks, which are needed to make the plan work.
The promise of shared prosperity between the countries of the region is already implied in the Arab Peace Initiative. The full potential of that promise could be explained for the benefit of all stakeholders, especially ordinary men and women whose core interests should be at the heart of this process.
After the initial stocktaking and persuasion of key players, an international conference is needed to rally support globally
Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg
After the initial stocktaking and persuasion of key players, an international conference is needed to rally support globally and, equally important, work out the details of the guarantees and incentives needed during the different stages of implementation of the solution.
The Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution provides the first step toward this goal. The GCC and the EU joined hands in launching this initiative and then expressed support for it last week in Brussels.
There will, of course, be obstacles and even potential spoilers. The Israeli government, currently populated by some of the most extreme elements of Israeli politics, may not be easily persuaded. Iran also may see a resolution of the Palestine question as sidelining Tehran or even being at its expense. It may see Arab-Israeli normalization as strengthening Israel, its regional arch-rival.
The US should be able to persuade Israel of the value of reaching a deal, with a promise of peace and normalization with countries of the region and beyond. Strengthening the peace camp in Israel is also necessary. This can be done by providing Israelis with a credible alternative to the current endless cycle of violence.
GCC-Iran diplomatic engagement could assuage Iran’s fears regarding the deal. In addition to the long-standing bilateral diplomatic channels between Iran and the GCC countries, a new channel was started earlier this month. On Oct. 4, the foreign ministers of Iran and the six GCC countries met for the first time in Doha. Through these channels, the two sides could discuss Iran’s concerns.
The GCC Regional Security Vision, issued in March, contains the promise of normalization with both Iran and Israel. The parameters for normalization with Israel have already been spelled out in the Arab Peace Initiative. The parameters for normalization with Iran have also been spelled out by the GCC in official correspondence with Tehran and in the meetings held with it over recent years.
Peace between Palestine and Israel could have the potential to defuse tensions in the region, including between Israel and Iran. Normalization with the GCC could help Iran focus its tremendous energies internally and help Iranian citizens and businesses to participate fully in the region’s economic boom.
- Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the Gulf Cooperation Council assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation. The views expressed here are personal and do not necessarily represent the GCC. X: @abuhamad1