How Harris and Trump compare on space policy

Two historic space events took place last week: SpaceX made history by successfully catching its returning Starship booster and NASA launched its Europa Clipper, the first mission to Jupiter’s moon Europa, where it will look for signs of life. However, space policy has been missing from the policy debates in the 2024 presidential election.

It has been a remarkable year for space, with the entry of the private sector to space exploration and robust growth in the space economy. But there has been silence on the campaign trail about these developments. A tweet from NASA administrator Bill Nelson and an article he wrote for Newsweek are the only signs that the Biden administration is paying attention.

Aside from Nelson’s announcement of the launch of Europa Clipper, there was no statement from the Harris campaign, but J.D. Vance, Donald Trump’s vice-presidential candidate, tweeted about it. The only reminder of space in the last two weeks has been Elon Musk’s campaigning for Trump.

This silence leaves space exploration advocates and the sector speculating about how each candidate plans to handle the issue if elected. Will space exploration, space security and the space economy be high on their agenda? Space is becoming an integral part of defense and security planning for many powers around the world, as it is designated by a number of countries as a war-fighting domain. It is also an arena for competition over access and resources. Hence, space will inevitably be a pressing concern in any US presidential administration.

Space is becoming an integral part of defense and security planning for many powers around the world

Dr. Amal Mudallali

Great and emerging power competition in space has ramped up due to the increasing number of powers going to space and landing on the moon, advancements in launch capabilities, the plummeting cost of launches and the growth of the space economy, which was valued at $570 billion in 2023 by the Space Foundation. For the US, China’s rapid rise has been the primary challenge.

The two candidates for the Nov. 5 election both have a space background. Vice President Kamala Harris is the head of the National Space Council and former President Trump had a vigorous space record during his first term.

The space policy community emphasizes that space is a bipartisan issue. Both parties have committed to maintaining American superiority in space and addressing the growing threat posed by China. Despite this, space has rarely played a significant role in US elections or been high on the voters’ agenda, even though public support for space exploration is strong.

The Republican Party platform offers a bullish agenda for space, promising a robust space economy, exploration and emphasizing partnerships. It promises a “manufacturing industry in Near Earth Orbit, sending American astronauts back to the moon, and onward to Mars, and enhancing partnerships” with the commercial space sector.

The Democratic platform focuses on supporting NASA and multilateral efforts, including the American presence on the International Space Station, and sending Americans back to the moon and to Mars. At the Democratic National Convention, Harris vowed to ensure that America leads “the world into the future on space and artificial intelligence,” outpacing China.

Republicans and Democrats differ on space priorities. One space expert who spoke on condition of anonymity told me that “the sense that Democrats are for Mars and the Republicans are for the moon is true.” He explained that Republicans “tend to prioritize human space flight and moon exploration as a prestige project, while Democrats focus on Mars and environmental issues.”

There is more certainty on continuity in space policy during this election compared to 2020, when people were unsure “if President Biden would keep the Artemis program,” said Justin Park, a space industry entrepreneur. But to everybody’s relief Biden kept the program intact, especially Artemis.

Each candidate is hailed by a different constituency. Nelson recently described Harris as a “space aficionado.” Some space luminaries, including former astronauts, established the “Space Cadets for Harris” group under the banner “To boldly go where no woman has gone before.”

However, others have criticized her limited engagement in the issue as head of the National Space Council. One space expert noted that the council now has a diminished role, with the National Security Council and the Office of Science and Technology Policy filling the gap. He said they “sat at the status quo and held few meetings.” This sentiment has been echoed in media reports, with Defense One quoting an anonymous industry executive as claiming that the National Security Council and not the National Space Council was setting military space policy.

The Biden-Harris administration has prioritized multilateral work on space, grown the Artemis program and spearheaded a UN resolution for a moratorium on anti-satellite weapons testing.

Preserving American superiority is a bipartisan issue that will top the agenda of whoever wins the presidency

Dr. Amal Mudallali

Internationally, Harris is viewed positively by Europeans on key space issues. European diplomats I have spoken with expect her to “prioritize clear legal norms, promote stability and foster global partnerships.”

Trump, on the other hand, has a standout space record from his first term, including reinvigorating the National Space Council, establishing the Space Force and, most importantly, creating the Artemis program. With his close ties to Musk, some predict that a second Trump term would see a stronger push toward Mars, with significant influence from the SpaceX boss regarding future American space policy and goals.

At the UN, the international community is concerned that former President Trump might scale down, if not abandon, any collaboration on space, although his team was positively engaged in negotiations in all UN space processes.

Space policy expert Greg Autry, a professor at Central Florida University, predicted that the “US will continue to unilaterally interpret the Outer Space Treaty and the existing norms,” saying “we need a new treaty.”

The Europeans are concerned about a second Trump administration, fearing it may lead to a more unilateral approach in space policy.

Challenges include fighting for NASA’s budget, prioritizing its programs, overseeing the future of the International Space Station and managing a new era of the space economy with the help of the private sector.

There is a consensus that China is the major threat in space. Experts believe that countering Beijing and preserving American superiority is a bipartisan issue that will be at the top of the national security agenda of whoever wins the presidency. They do not expect major differences between them, except maybe on language.

But unlike Washington, the Europeans believe it is crucial to find a way to balance competition and cooperation with China.

Finding balance in space policy will be a challenge to future US presidents and the world.

• Dr. Amal Mudallali is a visiting research scholar at Princeton University and former Lebanese ambassador to the UN.