Will Arab Americans have the final say in the presidential election?

As the US presidential election approaches, one thing is clear: Arab Americans are more engaged with the political process and more determined to have their say than ever before.

According to an Arab News/YouGov survey conducted between Sept. 26 and Oct. 1, no fewer than nine out of 10 Arab Americans plan to vote on Nov. 5.

This is a significant increase in political participation compared to previous elections: Some 79 percent voted in 2020 and only 68 percent in 2016.

After a year of war and suffering in Gaza and amid escalating conflict across the Middle East, this new-found determination to influence US policy cannot be separated from the harsh realities of today’s world.

It is clear from the survey that Arab Americans feel that their voices must be heard now more than ever, both for shaping the future of the US and in influencing its foreign policy toward their ancestral homelands.

What stands out in this survey is not just the sheer number of Arab Americans intending to vote, but also how this engagement reflects the evolution of the community itself.

We see a group of people deeply affected by the world around them, particularly by the issues that hit closest to home — both in the US and abroad.

Read our full coverage here: US Elections 2024: What Arab Americans want

The survey shows that men are particularly motivated, with 92 percent planning to vote, compared with 81 percent of women. There is also a clear generational divide: Older Arab Americans, those over 55, are more determined to vote (90 percent) than younger voters aged 18-34 (84 percent).

This sense of urgency among older voters might be driven by their lived experience. They have watched US foreign policy unfold in ways that have profoundly impacted their families and communities in the Middle East. The younger generation, on the other hand, seems to have its eyes set both on domestic issues, such as the economy, and the broader implications of US actions abroad.

There is also a geographical divide. Arab Americans in the northeast seem particularly engaged, with 90 percent believing their vote matters. This makes sense in a region where political activism has historically been strong among immigrants and minority communities, and where the Arab American community has made significant strides in integrating into the political fabric.

However, while Arab Americans are more politically engaged than ever, they are also deeply divided. According to the survey, 45 percent plan to vote for Donald Trump, while 43 percent back Kamala Harris. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who many thought would resonate with the community’s progressive values, is barely registering at 4 percent.

These numbers reveal the complexities within the Arab American vote, a community that cannot be pigeonholed into one political ideology.

Interestingly, more Arab American men (48 percent) back Trump than women (41 percent), while older voters lean toward Harris, with 49 percent of those over 55 supporting her. This generational split is striking. While older voters might see Harris as a continuation of policies that, at the very least, align with their hopes for a more diplomatic US approach to the Middle East, Trump’s appeal among men, particularly younger ones, shows a different, more hard-nosed perspective on both domestic and foreign policy.

Again, regional differences are clear. Trump’s strongest support comes from the northeast (48 percent), while Stein’s greatest, though still limited, backing is primarily from the midwest. These regional and gender divides show that Arab Americans, like the broader US electorate, are torn between competing visions for the future.

Of course, one issue weighs most heavily on the minds of many Arab Americans: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which emerges as the No. 1 concern for the community, including domestic worries about the US economy, and disappointment with the way the Biden administration has handled it.

It is clear from the survey that Arab Americans feel that their voices must be heard now more than ever, both for shaping the future of the US and in influencing its foreign policy toward their ancestral homelands.

Tarek Ali Ahmad

More believe Trump is more likely to resolve the conflict than Harris, even though the former president is seen as considerably more supportive of Israel’s government.

On the other hand, Arab Americans are split 50-50 over which of the two main candidates would be better for the Middle East generally. On this question men and residents of the northeast lean toward Trump, while older voters have more faith in Harris.

But the truth is neither candidate is particularly trusted when it comes to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and many Arab Americans remain pessimistic about the possibility of a genuine solution, no matter who wins the presidency.

Trump’s vocal support for the Israeli government has not gone unnoticed: 69 percent of Arab Americans consider him a staunch ally of Israel, compared to 59 percent who believe the same about Harris.

It is also interesting how little Arab Americans seem to know about Stein’s position on the conflict, despite her frequent criticism of the Israeli government’s actions. Four out of 10 Arab Americans admit they are unsure about her stance, with older voters (69 percent) being the least informed. This suggests that even candidates who are theoretically more aligned with the Arab American perspective on this issue are struggling to break through the noise of the two-party system.

While the Middle East remains a key concern, it is clear that domestic issues are just as important to Arab Americans. The economy and cost of living are at the top of their list of priorities, just below Palestine, followed by concerns about hate speech and discrimination.

Trump, in particular, seems to have an edge when it comes to economic issues. More than half of male respondents believe he would be better for the US economy, as do a majority of middle-aged respondents and those with higher incomes.

However, Trump’s candidacy comes with other concerns, particularly around the rise of hate speech. Nearly half of Arab Americans expect that hate speech against their community would increase under another Trump presidency, compared to less than a quarter who believe the same about Harris.

This fear is particularly understandable when we look at the personal experiences of Arab Americans. Almost half of the respondents report experiencing harassment or hate attacks based on their ethnicity or religion, with those in the midwest and south reporting the highest rates of discrimination.

Despite these concerns, Trump remains a strong contender for many Arab Americans, highlighting the tension between their hopes for economic improvement and their fears about social and racial justice.

As the 2024 election approaches, Arab Americans find themselves at a crossroads. They are more politically engaged than ever before, and their vote could play a crucial role in several key swing states, but they are also more divided than ever, torn between competing visions for both the US and the Middle East.

What is clear, though, is that the Arab American community is no longer a silent, overlooked minority. It is stepping into the political arena with force, ready to shape the future of a country it calls home, even as it grapples with the conflicts and challenges facing its ancestral homelands.

For Arab Americans, this election is not just about choosing between Trump, Harris, or Stein. It is about asserting their place in American society and making sure their voices are heard — both for the sake of their community and for the broader world.