IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025

IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025
Historically, China has driven over 60 percent of global oil demand growth over the past decade. (Reuters/File)
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Updated 22 October 2024
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IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025

IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025
  • Global oil prices are currently around $70 per barrel, having dropped over 7 percent last week, even amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East

RIYADH: The International Energy Agency forecasts weak oil demand growth in China for 2025, despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing. 

As the world’s second-largest economy shifts toward electrifying its car fleet and experiences slower growth, this trend is expected to continue, according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

Historically, China has driven over 60 percent of global oil demand growth over the past decade, with an average economic growth rate of 6.1 percent. However, Birol noted that with the economy projected to grow around 4 percent, energy needs are likely to decline. He highlighted that the demand for electric vehicles, now competitive with traditional cars, will contribute to this decrease.

Birol remarked that the impact of China’s fiscal stimulus has been less significant than anticipated, stating, “It will be very difficult to see a major uptick in Chinese oil demand.” 

Global oil prices are currently around $70 per barrel, having dropped over 7 percent last week, even amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

Birol pointed out that one reason for the muted price reaction is the weak demand observed this year, with expectations of continued weakness next year. 

He noted that without the petrochemical sector, Chinese oil demand would have remained flat.

Additionally, increased supply from non-OPEC producers — such as the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana — outpaces global oil demand growth, further limiting price increases. 

When asked about the possibility of OPEC+ unwinding production cuts in 2025, Birol stated that the decision lies with OPEC, but he anticipates a surplus in the oil market next year unless significant geopolitical changes occur.

Brent crude futures rose by $1.16, or 1.6 percent, to reach $74.22 a barrel at 10:36 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by $1.32, or 1.9 percent, settling at $70.54 a barrel.

Both Brent and WTI experienced significant declines last week, with Brent falling over 7 percent and WTI losing around 8 percent.


Oil Updates – prices steady with focus on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, OPEC+ policy

Oil Updates – prices steady with focus on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, OPEC+ policy
Updated 27 November 2024
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Oil Updates – prices steady with focus on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, OPEC+ policy

Oil Updates – prices steady with focus on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, OPEC+ policy

TOKYO: Oil prices steadied on Wednesday, with markets assessing the potential impact of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, and ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting of producers.

Brent crude futures rose 5 cents to $72.86 a barrel by 7:15 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 3 cents at $68.80 a barrel.

Both benchmarks settled lower on Tuesday after Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah will take effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the US and France, US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday.

The accord cleared the way for an end to a conflict across the Israeli-Lebanese border that has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the Gaza war last year.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was ready to implement the deal with Lebanon and would “respond forcefully to any violation” by Hezbollah.

“Market participants are assessing whether the ceasefire will be observed,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.

“We expect WTI to trade within the range of $65-$70 a barrel, factoring in weather conditions during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter, a potential increase in shale oil and gas production under the incoming Donald Trump administration in the US, and demand trends in China,” he said.

On the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, or OPEC+, sources said the group is discussing a further delay to a planned oil output hike that was due to start in January, ahead of a Dec. 1 meeting to decide policy for early 2025.

The group pumps about half the world’s oil and had planned to gradually roll back oil-production cuts with small increases over many months in 2024 and 2025. But a slowdown in Chinese and global demand, and rising output outside the group, have put a dampener on that plan.

“Our longstanding base case has been that OPEC+ defers the tapering of output cuts all the way through 2025,” Citi Research analysts said in a note, adding that the tapering could start in April instead of January.

“From the producer group’s point of view, holding off the unwind could allow the market the chance to be more balanced, via supply disruptions or more resilient demand, while bringing barrels back makes lower prices a foregone conclusion.”

In the US, President-elect Donald Trump said he would impose a 25 percent tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada. Crude oil would not be exempt from the trade penalties, sources told Reuters on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, US crude oil stocks fell while fuel inventories rose last week, market sources said, citing API figures on Tuesday.

Crude stocks fell by 5.94 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 22, exceeding analysts’ forecast of a drop of about 600,000 barrels. 


Saudi Arabia, Pakistan in talks on refinery upgrades, greenfield project: official says 

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan in talks on refinery upgrades, greenfield project: official says 
Updated 27 November 2024
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Saudi Arabia, Pakistan in talks on refinery upgrades, greenfield project: official says 

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan in talks on refinery upgrades, greenfield project: official says 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is set to deepen its strategic partnership with Pakistan through talks on refinery upgrades and a greenfield project for petroleum products, according to an official. 

Speaking to Arab News on the sidelines of the World Investment Conference held in Riyadh, Musadik Malik, senator and minister of state for petroleum of Pakistan, noted that the collaboration extends beyond energy projects and includes an agreement to connect power grids between the two nations. 

“We are working very closely with the Kingdom to figure out how, what are the future energy needs, particularly in the area of renewables, and jointly, we’re going to identify and scope the opportunity, and jointly we’re going to build a program to fulfill those needs,” Malik said. 

He continued: “We have two different projects which are right now under, to say, research. 

One is the upgradation of quantifier refineries, and the other is a large greenfield refinery which would not only produce petroleum products but also hydrocarbons. These are under research and negotiation, so these are not finalized.”  

Malik highlighted that the partnership goes beyond just securing investments or transferring advanced technology. Instead, it involves a joint effort to carefully analyze Pakistan’s future energy needs and map out potential scenarios for how these demands might evolve over time. 

This forward-looking approach ensures that both nations are not just reacting to immediate energy challenges but are proactively planning for the long term.   

By working together to address these evolving requirements, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan aim to guarantee Pakistan’s energy security, creating a sustainable and reliable framework that supports the country’s growth and development. 

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are making significant strides in strengthening private-sector collaborations, with multiple agreements already yielding tangible results.  

Malik highlighted the proactive approach both nations are taking to foster business-to-business partnerships. 

“Our prime minister believes that the government should not be in the business of doing business but should facilitate it,” he said, emphasizing the central theme of the collaboration. 

“A very large part of the concept we are jointly building on is the private sector of the Kingdom working with the private sector of Pakistan.”  

The minister added that around $2.8 billion worth of memorandums of understanding have been signed between the two countries in October. 

“Out of these 28 to 30 MOUs, seven or eight have already been converted into contracts and executed within just three to four months,” Malik said.  

He continued, explaining the momentum of the partnership: “We have transacted significant deals, and contracts are in motion. Yesterday (Nov. 25), during a roadshow with the Kingdom’s private sector, we secured a non-disclosure agreement that could pave the way for a $1.8 billion investment.” 

Malik emphasized the multifaceted nature of Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Pakistan, describing it as a “360-degree view” encompassing both public and private sectors. 

“We are not only receiving investments and technology but also collaborating on long-term strategies to meet Pakistan’s growing energy demands,” he said. “The Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund and subsidiaries are actively identifying opportunities for mutual growth.” 

Pakistan is tackling the challenge of energy demand fluctuations, a longstanding issue where consumption peaks in summer and drops to a third during winter. 

This cyclicality forces the country to make capacity payments to investors, covering equity returns and debt servicing even when energy is underutilized, Malik explained. 

To address this inefficiency, Pakistan signed an MoU with Saudi Arabia to connect their power grids. 

“This grid connection will allow energy produced in the Kingdom and Pakistan to be transacted seamlessly,” Malik said. “When we connect with Saudi Arabia, it effectively means connecting with the GCC as well.” 

The initiative also aligns with regional energy strategies, as Pakistan seeks similar arrangements with Central Asian states. 

“In Central Asia, energy demand is high in winter and negligible in summer. With this connectivity, deficits will no longer remain deficits, and surpluses will clear in real-time,” he added, highlighting plans for a unified energy market facilitated by a shared grid. 

Malik concluded the interview by praising Saudi Arabia’s unwavering support for Pakistan, describing the Kingdom as a true and steadfast ally. 

“In good times and bad, we have always found the Kingdom by our side. This is the hallmark of true friendship,” he said. 


Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia reaffirm OPEC+ production cuts commitment

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia reaffirm OPEC+ production cuts commitment
Updated 26 November 2024
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Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia reaffirm OPEC+ production cuts commitment

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia reaffirm OPEC+ production cuts commitment

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia on Tuesday emphasized the importance of fully committing to the OPEC+ oil supply agreement, including voluntary production cuts agreed by eight member states and measures to compensate for any increases in production, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

According to SPA, a trilateral meeting was held this morning in Baghdad, Iraq’s capital, which was attended by Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and Ali Maarij Al-Bahadli, Iraq’s director of distribution affairs at the Ministry of Oil.

The participants reaffirmed the significance of continued cooperation among OPEC+ countries and their full commitment to the voluntary agreements and production cuts, including those agreed upon by the eight countries, as well as compensating for any production increases.

Al-Bahadli reiterated Iraq’s determination to fully adhere to the agreement, voluntary cuts, and compensation for any production increase, in line with the updated schedule submitted by Iraq to the OPEC Secretariat.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, steadying after falling more than $2 a barrel in the previous session on reports of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

Brent crude futures were up 53 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $73.54 a barrel as of 1231 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.46 a barrel, up 52 cents, or 0.75 percent.

Prices fell sharply on Monday after multiple reports that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the terms of a ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. A senior Israeli official said Israel looks set to approve a US plan for a ceasefire on Tuesday.


EU seeks to boost green energy collaboration with Saudi Arabia

EU seeks to boost green energy collaboration with Saudi Arabia
Updated 26 November 2024
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EU seeks to boost green energy collaboration with Saudi Arabia

EU seeks to boost green energy collaboration with Saudi Arabia

RIYADH: The EU is keen to expand its cooperation with Saudi Arabia in the energy sector as the world increasingly shifts toward green energy, according to a senior EU official.

In an interview with Arab News on the sidelines of the World Investment Conference, Christophe Farnaud, the EU ambassador to Saudi Arabia, emphasized that the EU possesses significant expertise in the green energy sector, which could help accelerate Saudi Arabia’s clean energy transition, as well as support the broader Gulf Cooperation Council region.

Saudi Arabia, with its ambitious initiatives such as the world’s largest green hydrogen plant in NEOM, is leading the energy transition in the region, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2060.

“One of the many sectors where we are investing and what the partnerships are developing is the energy sector. It comes against the backdrop, not just of the regional needs, but also with this view of facing the green transition that we committed worldwide, not just as the Europeans, but also the Saudi government. This is where can make a difference,” said Farnaud. 

He added: “The EU has a strong expertise in that field (green energy). And the energy sector has been in many ways a key factor in the development of the Kingdom. So we already have relationships, between EU companies and Saudi Arabia. But now we will have a stronger focus on energy transition.” 

Farnaud noted that European firms have significant opportunities to collaborate in Saudi Arabia’s expanding renewable energy sector, particularly with the Kingdom’s substantial investments in solar power and green hydrogen projects. He also mentioned that European energy companies could work with Saudi energy giants like ACWA Power to help speed up the green energy transition.

In addition to energy, Farnaud pointed out that there are numerous other areas where Saudi Arabia and the EU could strengthen cooperation, including transport, machinery for emerging industries, entertainment, and tourism.

“Machinery is currently already a key sector for the exchanges between the EU and the Kingdom. But I also wanted to insist on the fact that even the new sectors for the Kingdom, like entertainment, tourism, which are a major asset for the coming years, and the EU has a well-known competence and expertise in these industries,” he said. 

The EU ambassador also noted that European companies are increasingly aware of the transformation taking place in Saudi Arabia and are eager to explore new opportunities in the Kingdom.

“We had the first ever EU-Saudi investment forum last year in October. We had around 1,400 companies registered and it shows  the strong interest from them. It shows also the commitment by the Saudi government and EU to promote these exchanges,” said Farnaud. 

He added that the EU is also helping small and medium-sized enterprises in Europe understand the potential of the Saudi market, and highlighted how the Kingdom’s updated investment law could benefit firms entering the country.

Saudi Arabia’s revised investment law, introduced in August, promises enhanced protections for international investors, including adherence to the rule of law, fair treatment, property rights, and stronger safeguards for intellectual property, while facilitating smooth fund transfers.

Wider EU-GCC cooperation

Farnaud also discussed broader EU-GCC relations, noting that the EU-GCC Summit held in October underscored the importance of “partnership in the economic field,” with energy cooperation identified as a key area for strengthening ties.

“The EU and GCC have very dynamic economic relations. And it is not just about Saudi Arabia and the EU, where already the investment stocks from EU in the Kingdom is above €31 billion ($32.58 billion) which is quite significant. But if you enlarge the picture to the GCC as a whole, we are above €215 billion,” he told Arab News. 

During a panel discussion on the second day of the World Investment Conference, Farnaud highlighted that European companies are playing an active role in most of Saudi Arabia’s major “giga-projects,” including NEOM, Qiddiya, and AlUla.

He also emphasized that Europe offers an open market with a highly skilled workforce, which countries in the GCC, including Saudi Arabia, can tap into to accelerate their economic diversification efforts.

Regarding foreign investments, Farnaud said: “Investment is a two-way thing, and it is a question of trust and mutual knowledge. It is not just us going to the GCC, which is important, it is also GCC countries coming to Europe. In that way, they are already doing it. About 50 percent of foreign investments of GCC countries go to Europe.”

Progress on Vision 2030

During the same panel, Prince Sultan bin Khalid Al-Saud, CEO of the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, highlighted Saudi Arabia’s socio-economic progress since the launch of Vision 2030. He described the Kingdom as unique, thanks to its “positive energy and optimism.”

The SIDF CEO stressed that Vision 2030 is designed to benefit both current and future generations of Saudis, with a particular focus on investing in people.

“For Saudi Arabia, development starts with investing in people. No matter how you look at Vision 2030, or how you slice it, it’s all about the people—it’s about investing in them, trusting their abilities, and empowering them to create something not just for this generation of Saudis, but for all future generations,” he said.

Affirming the growth of the startup ecosystem in Saudi Arabia, the SIDF chief said that venture capital in Saudi Arabia has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 86 percent in the last five years. 

He also added that Saudi Arabia’s women participation in the workforce is higher than that of Western Europe. 

According to the latest report by the General Authority for Statistics, unemployment among Saudi nationals fell to 7.1 percent by the end of the second quarter, a quarterly drop of 0.5 percentage points and an annual decline of 1.4 percentage points. 

The report added that the unemployment rate among Saudi females also witnessed a sharp quarterly decline of 1.4 percentage points at the end of the second quarter reaching 12.8 percent. 


Oil Updates – crude steadies amid possible Middle East ceasefire

Oil Updates – crude steadies amid possible Middle East ceasefire
Updated 26 November 2024
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Oil Updates – crude steadies amid possible Middle East ceasefire

Oil Updates – crude steadies amid possible Middle East ceasefire
  • Israel, Lebanon eye ceasefire in Israel-Hezbollah conflict
  • MidEast ceasefire cuts likelihood of US sanctions on Iran oil
  • Kyiv faces sustained Russian drone attacks

SINGAPORE: Oil prices edged higher in early trade on Tuesday after falling in the previous session as investors took stock of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, weighing on oil’s risk premium.

Brent crude futures rose 15 cents, or 0.21 percent, to $73.16 a barrel as at 10:05 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.09 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.22 percent.

Both benchmarks settled down $2 a barrel on Monday following reports that Lebanon and Israel had agreed to the terms of a deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, which triggered a crude oil selloff.

Market reaction to the ceasefire news was “over the top,” said senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva at Phillip Nova.

While the news calmed fear of disruption to Middle Eastern supply, the Israel-Hamas conflict “never actually disrupted supplies significantly to induce war premiums” this year, Sachdeva said.

“The vulnerability of oil prices to geopolitical headlines lacks foundational backup and, coupled with the inability to maintain recent gains, reflects weakening global demand for oil and suggests a volatile market ahead.”

Iran, which supports Hezbollah, is an OPEC member with production of around 3.2 million barrels per day, or 3 percent of global output.

A ceasefire in Lebanon would reduce the likelihood that the incoming US administration will impose stringent sanctions on Iranian crude oil, said ANZ analysts.

If President-elect Donald Trump’s administration returned to a maximum-pressure campaign on Tehran, Iranian exports could shrink by 1 million bpd, analysts have said, tightening global crude flows.

In Europe, Ukraine’s capital Kyiv was under a sustained Russian drone attack on Tuesday, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.

Hostilities between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine intensified this month after US President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia in a significant reversal of Washington’s policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Elsewhere, OPEC+ may consider leaving its current oil output cuts in place from Jan. 1 at its next meeting on Sunday, Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov told Reuters, as the producer group had already postponed hikes amid demand worries.

On Monday, Trump said he would sign an executive order imposing a 25 percent tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada. It was unclear whether this would include crude oil.

The vast majority of Canada’s 4 million bpd of crude exports go to the US Analysts have said it is unlikely Trump would impose tariffs on Canadian oil, which cannot be easily replaced since it differs from grades that the US produces.

“Contrary to today’s sell-off in risk assets, I think the tariff announcements are actually risk-positive because they are lower than consensus expectations,” said market analyst Tony Sycamore at IG.

Trump’s proposed additional 10 percent tariffs on Chinese imports are “well below” the 60 percent level he threatened pre-election, Sycamore said.

For the time being, markets are eyeing Trump’s plan to increase US oil production, which has been near record levels throughout 2022 to 2024 and absorbed supply disruption from geopolitical crises and sanctions, Phillip Nova’s Sachdeva said.