Yemen evacuates embassy staff, group of stranded citizens from Lebanon
Thousands of foreigners have fled the country as Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalates
Updated 24 sec ago
Saeed Al-Batati
AL-MUKALLA: Yemen’s government has evacuated the majority of its diplomatic mission in Lebanon and began airlifting the first group of stranded Yemenis out of the Lebanese capital, an official told Arab News on Sunday.
A group of eight Yemenis flew from Beirut to Amman on Middle East Airlines over the weekend, returning home on Yemenia Airways. This came as the Yemeni ambassador to Lebanon and several members of Yemen’s diplomatic mission in the Lebanese capital left the country, leaving behind Yemen’s consular and administrative officer.
The official said the Yemeni government is arranging for the evacuation of 33 Yemenis from Lebanon who have registered at the Yemen Embassy in Beirut. Thousands of foreigners fled Lebanon in recent months as the conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah escalated.
The Yemeni Embassy in Beirut asked Yemenis who wanted to leave the country to register their names at the embassy before directing them to travel to Syria by land after failing to secure a flight to get them out. Yemenis there rejected the embassy’s proposal to travel to Syria by land, citing security concerns, and demanded that the Yemeni government evacuate them by air, just like other citizens.
Mushtaq Anaam, a postgraduate Yemeni student living in Beirut’s Cola neighborhood who in the past petitioned the Yemeni government to evacuate him from Lebanon, told Arab News that he changed his mind about leaving the country after discovering a safer place in Lebanon’s far north, and that he is concerned about missing classes if he returns to Yemen and his university in Lebanon reopens.
“I have six months remaining to finish my studies. Instead of going to Yemen and paying $800 or $1,000 to return to Lebanon, I chose to stay here and leave Beirut for a safer area in the north,” Anaam said.
Sudanese army reports first defection of a senior RSF commander
Updated 11 sec ago
CAIRO: Sudan’s army said on Sunday a commander from its foe the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had defected with some of his troops, in what would be the first such move by a senior figure since the sides started fighting more than 18 months ago. There was no immediate comment from the RSF which has seized control of large parts of the country in a conflict with the military that the UN says has caused one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Supporters of the army posted photos online purporting to show Abuagla Keikal — a former army officer who became the RSF’s top commander in the southeastern state of El Gezira — after he had defected. The army, which has recently reported gains against the RSF in parts of the capital, said Keikal had decided to make the move because of his former force’s “destructive agenda.” It did not go into further detail and there was no statement, in print or on video, from Keikal. The conflict has displaced more than 10 million people, driven parts of the country to extreme hunger or famine, and drawn in foreign powers that have supplied both sides with material support. It began in April 2023 when tensions between the RSF and the army, who had been jostling for position ahead of an internationally backed transition to civilian rule, erupted into open conflict. The army and the RSF had previously shared power after staging a coup in 2021, two years after veteran autocrat Omar Al-Bashir was toppled in a popular uprising.
UN condemns Israeli airstrikes in Gaza’s Beit Lahiya
Total of 87 people were killed or missing under the rubble after an Israeli attack on Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza, the enclave’s health ministry said Sunday
Updated 37 min 14 sec ago
Reuters
JERUSALEM: The UN peace envoy for the Middle East on Sunday condemned continued attacks on civilians after Israeli airstrikes in Gaza’s Beit Lahiya killed dozens late on Saturday.
“This follows weeks of intensified operations resulting in scores of civilian fatalities and near total lack of humanitarian aid reaching populations in the north,” said Tor Wennesland, the UN Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process.
Israel’s military said it intensified attacks in northern Gaza in early October to prevent Hamas militants from regrouping.
A total of 87 people were killed or missing under the rubble after an Israeli attack on Saturday on Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza, the enclave’s health ministry said on Sunday.
The Israeli military has said it was investigating reports of the incident, which left one of the highest casualty tolls in months.
Gaza’s health ministry says the strikes have killed hundreds since the Israeli campaign escalated.
Lebanese army says 3 soldiers killed in an Israeli strike on southern Lebanon
Lebanon’s army has largely kept the sidelines in the war between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group
The military is a respected institution in Lebanon but is not powerful enough to impose its will on Hezbollah or defend the country from an Israeli invasion
Updated 20 October 2024
AP
DEIR AL-BALAH: The Lebanese army says three of its soldiers were killed in an Israeli strike on their vehicle in southern Lebanon.
There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military on Sunday’s strike.
Lebanon’s army has largely kept the sidelines in the war between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group. The military is a respected institution in Lebanon but is not powerful enough to impose its will on Hezbollah or defend the country from an Israeli invasion.
Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Firas Maksad says Lebanese militia wagered nation’s fate on Gaza war’s outcome
Says ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war’s domestic toll on a country still suffering from a financial collapse is “tremendous”
Updated 13 min 26 sec ago
Arab News
DUBAI: Lebanon is heading for an extended conflict as Israel’s ground invasion enters its fourth week, raising concerns of deeper regional instability. Sounding this warning on the Arab News current affairs show “Frankly Speaking,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the fighting could last far longer than initially anticipated.
“Unfortunately, we are looking at weeks, maybe months, of conflict ahead,” he said.
The clashes between Israeli forces and the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah have destabilized a country already grappling with economic collapse and political dysfunction.
Despite suffering heavy losses, particularly among its leadership, Hezbollah is far from defeated. “It’s certainly not game over. Hezbollah has been significantly weakened. It’s on its back foot,” Maksad said. “Hezbollah is fighting in a more decentralized way right now. We see that on the border. Their fighters are still … putting up a fight there.”
Israel sent troops and tanks into southern Lebanon on Oct. 1 in an escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, a spillover from the Israel-Hamas war that has been raging since Oct. 7 last year in Gaza.
It followed a series of major attacks on Hezbollah in September that degraded its capabilities and devastated its leadership, beginning with explosions of its communication devices.
This was followed by an Israeli aerial bombing campaign against Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, culminating in the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the militia’s firebrand leader, in an airstrike in Dahiyeh, south of Beirut, on Sept. 7.
According to Maksad, Hezbollah’s fragmented central command has left it increasingly reliant on Iranian support. “Hezbollah’s central command is increasingly likely to come under direct Iranian management and control of the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards,” he told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”
“Nasrallah had a margin of maneuver because of his role and stature in the community but also at a regional level, given the group’s involvement in Syria, Iraq, Yemen. That’s now gone. That very much then opens the way for more direct Iranian control, commanding control of Hezbollah in the months ahead.”
Maksad said the general sentiment in Lebanon, and even among Hezbollah’s own support base, is that the Iranian level of support has been at the very least disappointing.
“Public sentiment is one thing and the reality is sometimes another. Iran has sort of always showed some level of support to Hezbollah but has not been willing to stick its neck on the line, so to speak,” he said.
“It fights through its Arab proxies. It has a very clear aversion to be directly involved in a conflict with Israel because of its technological and military inferiority.”
Maksad, appearing on Frankly Speaking, highlighted a dire humanitarian situation, pointing to the more than one million internally displaced people who have fled from Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon. (AN Photo)
Maksad highlighted the dire humanitarian situation in Lebanon, pointing to the more than one million internally displaced people who have fled from Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon.
“About one-quarter of the population is under evacuation orders from the Israeli military,” he said. “The domestic toll for a relatively weak country suffering still from the weight of an unprecedented economic collapse in 2019, where most people lost their life savings in the banks, is tremendous.”
Maksad said the displacement has heightened sectarian tensions, as those displaced from pro-Hezbollah areas have moved into regions less sympathetic to the group.
“It does not bode well longer term for Lebanon, and the longer that this conflict drags, the more we have to (be concerned) about the bubbling of tensions and the instability that that might result in,” he said.
“Hezbollah has essentially wagered the country’s fate on (the outcome of the war) in Gaza and the fate of Hamas and its leaders,” he said.
Maksad also discussed the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict, suggesting that Israel is unlikely to engage in a long-term occupation of southern Lebanon.
“The Israelis fully understand the disadvantages of a lengthy occupation,” he said, recalling the heavy toll it took on the Israeli military when they last occupied Lebanon, a presence that ended in 2000.
“What I keep hearing is that Israel is looking to mop up Hezbollah infrastructure, tunnels and otherwise along the border, perhaps maybe even occupy, for a short period of time, the key villages, because the topography of south Lebanon is such that so many of these border villages are overlooking Israel and they want to take the higher ground.”
Having said that, Maksad predicted that Israel would pursue a diplomatic process, possibly through a new security arrangement based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, after dealing with Hezbollah’s infrastructure.
Hezbollah’s alignment with the cause of Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups has alienated significant segments of the Lebanese population, further straining the country’s already delicate sectarian fabric. The political leadership in Lebanon is consequently under immense pressure.
Maksad views Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, as a crucial player in mediating the crisis. However, at 86 years old, his ability to navigate such a complex situation is in question.
Maksad told host Katie Jensen that he views Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, as a crucial player in mediating the crisis. (AN Photo)
“He can’t do it alone,” Maksad said, noting that other key figures, such as Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Christian political leader Samir Geagea, will need to play constructive roles too. While acknowledging that Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister, is also a key player, he noted that since the assassination in 2005 of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister, “there’s been a void in the Sunni community and it’s been hard to replace that.”
Maksad remarked that Berri, Jumblatt and Geagea were all around during the civil war in the 1980s and are still active players on the Lebanese political scene.
“They have long memories. They remember in 1982 when (Israel’s defense minister) Ariel Sharon initially announced a limited operation into Lebanon and then ended up invading all the way to Beirut, upending the political system, facilitating the election of a pro-Western president,” he said.
But very quickly Iran and Syria launched their comeback, assassinated Bachir Gemayel, the president at the time, and by 1985 had pushed the Israelis all the way back to the south. “Iran and Hezbollah have time … they tend to be persistent and they have strategic patience,” Maksad said. “Berri and others remember that. So, they’re going to be moving very slowly, and they’re going to be taking their cues from the regional capitals of influence.”
Recent developments in the Middle East, particularly the killing by Israel on Oct. 16 of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, represent what Maksad describes as “a potential fork in the road.”
The killing could either escalate tensions across the region or serve as a turning point, allowing Israel to seek a diplomatic solution, according to Maksad.
“It can open up a diplomatic process where maybe Netanyahu can then reclaim the mantle of ‘Mr. Security,’ having killed Sinwar, and then begin to seriously negotiate a swap that would see the Israeli hostages released. And we all know that a ceasefire in Lebanon was premised on a diplomatic outcome in a ceasefire in Gaza. And, then, arguably, Lebanon can begin to move in that direction,” he said.
However, Iran is on “a completely separate track” and the Middle East could be in the midst of a “multi-stage conflict.”
Maksad added: “Once we get the past the Nov. 5 (US election) day, maybe Netanyahu will have a much freer hand for a second round of attacks that can then maybe take a toll on (Iran’s) nuclear infrastructure and the oil facilities in Iran. And then that opens up a Pandora’s box. So, we’re continuing to be in a very uncertain period for not only Gaza and Lebanon, but for Iran and the region at large.”
Discussing the stances of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states on the Middle East conflicts, Maksad said that these countries are understandably hedging their foreign policy priorities and relations.
“There’s been questions in recent years about the US security commitment to the GCC region, given an increasingly isolationist trend in the US, and talk about ending forever wars,” he said.
“That has rightfully caused countries like Saudi Arabia and others to want to diversify their foreign policy options. I think this is part of a broader strategic approach that the Kingdom has taken. I don’t see any significant changes yet, except that the war in Gaza and now Lebanon, the longer that drags on, the less likely that we’re going to see any progress on normalization with Israel.”
Iran’s meddling drew a rare rebuke from Lebanon last week, as Prime Minister Najib Mikati accused it of “blatant interference” over remarks attributed to a Tehran official regarding ceasefire terms
Hezbollah is considered better armed than Lebanon’s national military and remains the only group that did not put down its weapons after the 1975-90 civil war
Updated 20 October 2024
AFP
Beirut: With Iran-backed Hezbollah on the defensive after a series of heavy Israeli blows, the United States and Iran are locked in a showdown over Lebanon’s future, analysts said.
Hezbollah, the most powerful regional force backed by Iran, which arms and finances it, has long held sway in Lebanon.
But the group’s influence is now in question after Israel’s assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a significant setback.
Hezbollah’s losses have left Lebanon in a “tug of war between Iran and the United States,” said Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center think tank.
“The Israelis with the Americans... are trying to use military force to try to transform the balance of power in Lebanon to their advantage,” he told AFP.
“There are no signs that the Iranians are going to accept this without a fight.”
Hezbollah is considered better armed than Lebanon’s national military and remains the only group that did not put down its weapons after the 1975-90 civil war.
Last year, it opened a new front with Israel over the conflict in Gaza, in support of its ally Hamas.
It carefully calibrated attacks to avoid a full-blown conflict, which eventually came on September 23 when Israel stepped up bombing of Hezbollah strongholds, including south Beirut.
The United States has pushed for ceasefire, but has also expressed support for Israeli attempts to “degrade Hezbollah’s infrastructure.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this month that “it’s clear that the people of Lebanon have an interest — a strong interest — in the state asserting itself and taking responsibility for the country and its future.”
Kim Ghattas, the author of “Black Wave,” a book on the Saudi-Iran rivalry, said: “Lebanon is caught between Iran and Hezbollah on the one hand, and Israel and the US on the other.”
But “Washington’s vision doesn’t necessarily align with Israel’s in terms of war goals and tactics,” she said.
“The US would certainly like to see a weakening of Hezbollah, maybe even the disarming of the group, but it is wary of Israel going too far with the military campaign.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Lebanon it could face destruction “like Gaza” as Israel vowed to keep fighting Hezbollah until it secures its northern border.
“I say to you, the people of Lebanon: Free your country from Hezbollah so that this war can end,” Netanyahu said on October 8.
Iran, for its part, “wants to preserve what’s left of its assets in Lebanon and ensure the survival of the regime,” Ghattas said, referring to the Islamic republic.
“It needs to walk a fine line between continuing to support Hezbollah... while signalling it is ready for diplomacy.”
Iran’s meddling drew a rare rebuke from Lebanon last week, as Prime Minister Najib Mikati accused it of “blatant interference” over remarks attributed to a Tehran official regarding ceasefire terms.
Mikati charged that Iran had attempted “to establish an unacceptable guardianship over Lebanon,” after Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reportedly told France’s Le Figaro newspaper that his government was ready to negotiate on the implementation of a 2006 UN resolution that calls for only the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers to be deployed in southern Lebanon.
As the Israel-Hezbollah war nears its one-month mark, calls have mounted for Lebanon to elect a president after a two-year void due to political deadlock.
The last president, Michel Aoun, was a Hezbollah ally, making the vote a test for the country’s political trends.
In an interview with AFP, Mikati said serious efforts were underway to elect a president, in line with calls from the United States and other Western allies.
Political leaders in Lebanon too have made careful appeals for a new president, trying to avoid impressions they were leveraging Hezbollah’s setbacks for political gain.
“The Lebanese parties hostile to Hezbollah understand that the situation is very delicate,” said Young.
“They don’t want to provoke the Shiite community, which already feels humiliated and angry and isolated and let’s remember, is armed,” he added.
While suspicion between sects has grown since the Israeli-Hezbollah war forced displaced Shiite communities into Christian-majority areas, many are wary of a repeat of the country’s 15-year war.
The Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 also recalls bitter memories for Lebanese and ultimately led to the creation of Hezbollah, one of Israel’s most formidable foes.
“It seems that politicians in Lebanon have learned lessons of the past, but the longer this current limbo and war lasts, the harder it will be to keep tensions under control,” said Ghattas.
