Frankly Speaking: Is it over for Hezbollah?

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Updated 20 October 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Is it over for Hezbollah?

Frankly Speaking: Is it over for Hezbollah?
  • Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Firas Maksad says Lebanese militia wagered nation’s fate on Gaza war’s outcome
  • Says ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war’s domestic toll on a country still suffering from a financial collapse is “tremendous” 

DUBAI: Lebanon is heading for an extended conflict as Israel’s ground invasion enters its fourth week, raising concerns of deeper regional instability. Sounding this warning on the Arab News current affairs show “Frankly Speaking,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the fighting could last far longer than initially anticipated.

“Unfortunately, we are looking at weeks, maybe months, of conflict ahead,” he said.

The clashes between Israeli forces and the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah have destabilized a country already grappling with economic collapse and political dysfunction.

Despite suffering heavy losses, particularly among its leadership, Hezbollah is far from defeated. “It’s certainly not game over. Hezbollah has been significantly weakened. It’s on its back foot,” Maksad said. “Hezbollah is fighting in a more decentralized way right now. We see that on the border. Their fighters are still … putting up a fight there.”

Israel sent troops and tanks into southern Lebanon on Oct. 1 in an escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, a spillover from the Israel-Hamas war that has been raging since Oct. 7 last year in Gaza.

It followed a series of major attacks on Hezbollah in September that degraded its capabilities and devastated its leadership, beginning with explosions of its communication devices.

This was followed by an Israeli aerial bombing campaign against Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, culminating in the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the militia’s firebrand leader, in an airstrike in Dahiyeh, south of Beirut, on Sept. 7.

According to Maksad, Hezbollah’s fragmented central command has left it increasingly reliant on Iranian support. “Hezbollah’s central command is increasingly likely to come under direct Iranian management and control of the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards,” he told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”

“Nasrallah had a margin of maneuver because of his role and stature in the community but also at a regional level, given the group’s involvement in Syria, Iraq, Yemen. That’s now gone. That very much then opens the way for more direct Iranian control, commanding control of Hezbollah in the months ahead.”

Maksad said the general sentiment in Lebanon, and even among Hezbollah’s own support base, is that the Iranian level of support has been at the very least disappointing.

“Public sentiment is one thing and the reality is sometimes another. Iran has sort of always showed some level of support to Hezbollah but has not been willing to stick its neck on the line, so to speak,” he said.

“It fights through its Arab proxies. It has a very clear aversion to be directly involved in a conflict with Israel because of its technological and military inferiority.”




Maksad, appearing on Frankly Speaking, highlighted a dire humanitarian situation, pointing to the more than one million internally displaced people who have fled from Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon. (AN Photo)

Maksad highlighted the dire humanitarian situation in Lebanon, pointing to the more than one million internally displaced people who have fled from Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon.

“About one-quarter of the population is under evacuation orders from the Israeli military,” he said. “The domestic toll for a relatively weak country suffering still from the weight of an unprecedented economic collapse in 2019, where most people lost their life savings in the banks, is tremendous.”

Maksad said the displacement has heightened sectarian tensions, as those displaced from pro-Hezbollah areas have moved into regions less sympathetic to the group.

“It does not bode well longer term for Lebanon, and the longer that this conflict drags, the more we have to (be concerned) about the bubbling of tensions and the instability that that might result in,” he said.

“Hezbollah has essentially wagered the country’s fate on (the outcome of the war) in Gaza and the fate of Hamas and its leaders,” he said.

Maksad also discussed the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict, suggesting that Israel is unlikely to engage in a long-term occupation of southern Lebanon.

“The Israelis fully understand the disadvantages of a lengthy occupation,” he said, recalling the heavy toll it took on the Israeli military when they last occupied Lebanon, a presence that ended in 2000.

“What I keep hearing is that Israel is looking to mop up Hezbollah infrastructure, tunnels and otherwise along the border, perhaps maybe even occupy, for a short period of time, the key villages, because the topography of south Lebanon is such that so many of these border villages are overlooking Israel and they want to take the higher ground.”

Having said that, Maksad predicted that Israel would pursue a diplomatic process, possibly through a new security arrangement based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, after dealing with Hezbollah’s infrastructure.

Hezbollah’s alignment with the cause of Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups has alienated significant segments of the Lebanese population, further straining the country’s already delicate sectarian fabric. The political leadership in Lebanon is consequently under immense pressure.

Maksad views Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, as a crucial player in mediating the crisis. However, at 86 years old, his ability to navigate such a complex situation is in question.




Maksad told host Katie Jensen that he views Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, as a crucial player in mediating the crisis. (AN Photo)

“He can’t do it alone,” Maksad said, noting that other key figures, such as Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Christian political leader Samir Geagea, will need to play constructive roles too. While acknowledging that Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister, is also a key player, he noted that since the assassination in 2005 of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister, “there’s been a void in the Sunni community and it’s been hard to replace that.”

Maksad remarked that Berri, Jumblatt and Geagea were all around during the civil war in the 1980s and are still active players on the Lebanese political scene.

“They have long memories. They remember in 1982 when (Israel’s defense minister) Ariel Sharon initially announced a limited operation into Lebanon and then ended up invading all the way to Beirut, upending the political system, facilitating the election of a pro-Western president,” he said.

But very quickly Iran and Syria launched their comeback, assassinated Bachir Gemayel, the president at the time, and by 1985 had pushed the Israelis all the way back to the south. “Iran and Hezbollah have time  … they tend to be persistent and they have strategic patience,” Maksad said. “Berri and others remember that. So, they’re going to be moving very slowly, and they’re going to be taking their cues from the regional capitals of influence.”

Recent developments in the Middle East, particularly the killing by Israel on Oct. 16 of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, represent what Maksad describes as “a potential fork in the road.”

The killing could either escalate tensions across the region or serve as a turning point, allowing Israel to seek a diplomatic solution, according to Maksad.

“It can open up a diplomatic process where maybe Netanyahu can then reclaim the mantle of ‘Mr. Security,’ having killed Sinwar, and then begin to seriously negotiate a swap that would see the Israeli hostages released. And we all know that a ceasefire in Lebanon was premised on a diplomatic outcome in a ceasefire in Gaza. And, then, arguably, Lebanon can begin to move in that direction,” he said.

However, Iran is on “a completely separate track” and the Middle East could be in the midst of a “multi-stage conflict.”

Maksad added: “Once we get the past the Nov. 5 (US election) day, maybe Netanyahu will have a much freer hand for a second round of attacks that can then maybe take a toll on (Iran’s) nuclear infrastructure and the oil facilities in Iran. And then that opens up a Pandora’s box. So, we’re continuing to be in a very uncertain period for not only Gaza and Lebanon, but for Iran and the region at large.”

Discussing the stances of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states on the Middle East conflicts, Maksad said that these countries are understandably hedging their foreign policy priorities and relations.

“There’s been questions in recent years about the US security commitment to the GCC region, given an increasingly isolationist trend in the US, and talk about ending forever wars,” he said.

“That has rightfully caused countries like Saudi Arabia and others to want to diversify their foreign policy options. I think this is part of a broader strategic approach that the Kingdom has taken. I don’t see any significant changes yet, except that the war in Gaza and now Lebanon, the longer that drags on, the less likely that we’re going to see any progress on normalization with Israel.”

 


King of Jordan meets Vatican secretary of state in Amman

King of Jordan meets Vatican secretary of state in Amman
Updated 12 January 2025
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King of Jordan meets Vatican secretary of state in Amman

King of Jordan meets Vatican secretary of state in Amman
  • Cardinal Pietro Parolin was in Jordan for the inauguration of the Church of John the Baptist
  • King Abdullah praises Pope Francis’s support for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip

LONDON: King Abdullah of Jordan welcomed Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state, at Al-Husseiniya Palace in Amman on Sunday.

King Abdullah sent his greetings to Pope Francis during a meeting attended by several senior royal advisers and aides. Cardinal Parolin thanked King Abdullah for his support and patronage of the Christian communities in Jordan.

The Jordanian king praised the pope’s support for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, who since late 2023 have suffered the effects of an Israeli military campaign.

They agreed on the need to stop Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip, and increase the flow of humanitarian aid. They also warned of aggressive Israeli policies in occupied East Jerusalem and its effect on the Islamic and Christian holy sites, the Petra news agency reported.

Parolin on Friday attended the inauguration of the Church of John the Baptist on the east bank of the Jordan River.


15 killed in an explosion and fire at a gas station in central Yemen

An explosion at a gas station triggered a massive fire in central Yemen, killing at least 15 people, officials said Sunday.
An explosion at a gas station triggered a massive fire in central Yemen, killing at least 15 people, officials said Sunday.
Updated 49 min 2 sec ago
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15 killed in an explosion and fire at a gas station in central Yemen

An explosion at a gas station triggered a massive fire in central Yemen, killing at least 15 people, officials said Sunday.
  • At least 67 others were injured, including 40 in critical condition
  • Footage circulated online showing a massive fire that sent columns of smoke into the sky and left vehicles charred and burning

CAIRO: An explosion at a gas station triggered a massive fire in central Yemen, killing at least 15 people, health officials said Sunday.
The explosion occurred Saturday at the Zaher district in the province of Bayda, the Houthi-run Health Ministry said in a statement. At least 67 others were injured, including 40 in critical condition.
The ministry said rescue teams were searching for those reported missing. It wasn’t immediately clear what caused the explosion.
Footage circulated online showing a massive fire that sent columns of smoke into the sky and left vehicles charred and burning.
Bayda is controlled by the Houthis, who have been at war with Yemen’s internationally recognized government for more than a decade.
Elsewhere in Bayda, the Houthis attacked and looted Hanaka Al-Masoud village in the Al-Qurayshiya district last week, according to the internationally recognized government. It said there were fatalities but gave no figures.
Information Minister Moammar Al-Eryani said the attack came after a weeklong siege of the village.
“This horrific attack targeted citizens’ homes and mosques, and resulted in many casualties, including women and children, and the destruction of property,” he said.
Rights activist Riyadh Al-Dubai said the Houthis detained dozens of men and looted homes, seizing valuables such as gold, money, daggers and other possessions. He said shelling by the Houthis had continued relentlessly day and night for more than five days.
The US Embassy in Yemen condemned the attack, saying in a statement that the “deaths, injuries, and wrongful detentions of innocent Yemenis perpetrated by Houthi terrorists are depriving the Yemeni people of peace and a brighter future.”
Yemen’s civil war began in 2014, when the Houthis took control of the capital, Sanaa, and much of the country’s north, forcing the government to flee to the south, then to Saudi Arabia. 
The war has killed more than 150,000 people including civilians and combatants, and in recent years deteriorated largely into a stalemate and caused one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.


Malala Yousafzai says ‘Israel has decimated the entire education system’ in Gaza

Malala Yousafzai says ‘Israel has decimated the entire education system’ in Gaza
Updated 12 January 2025
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Malala Yousafzai says ‘Israel has decimated the entire education system’ in Gaza

Malala Yousafzai says ‘Israel has decimated the entire education system’ in Gaza
  • Nobel Peace laureate Malala Yousafzai on Sunday said she would continue to call out Israel’s violations of international law and human rights in Gaza

ISLAMABAD: Nobel Peace laureate Malala Yousafzai on Sunday said she would continue to call out Israel’s violations of international law and human rights in Gaza.
The education advocate was speaking at a global summit on girls’ education in Muslim nations hosted by Pakistan and attended by representatives from dozens of countries.
“In Gaza, Israel has decimated the entire education system,” she said in an address to the conference.
“They have bombed all universities, destroyed more than 90 percent of schools, and indiscriminately attacked civilians sheltering in school buildings.
“I will continue to call out Israel’s violations of international law and human rights.”
Yousafzai was shot when she was a 15-year-old schoolgirl by Pakistani militants enraged by her education activism.
She made a remarkable recovery after being evacuated to the United Kingdom and went on to become the youngest ever Nobel Prize winner at the age of 17.
“Palestinian children have lost their lives and future. A Palestinian girl cannot have the future she deserves if her school is bombed and her family is killed,” she added.
The war in Gaza was sparked by Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people on the Israeli side, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of official Israeli figures.
During the attack, Palestinian militants took 251 people hostage, of whom 94 remain in the Gaza Strip, including 34 the Israeli military has declared dead.
Israel’s attack on Gaza has killed 46,537 people, the majority civilians, according to figures from the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory considered reliable by the United Nations.


Israel’s Netanyahu sends Mossad director to Gaza ceasefire talks in Qatar

Israel’s Netanyahu sends Mossad director to Gaza ceasefire talks in Qatar
Updated 12 January 2025
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Israel’s Netanyahu sends Mossad director to Gaza ceasefire talks in Qatar

Israel’s Netanyahu sends Mossad director to Gaza ceasefire talks in Qatar
  • His presence means high-level Israeli officials who would need to sign off on any agreement are now involved
  • Just one brief ceasefire has been achieved in 15 months of Israel's war on Gaza which has killed over 44,000

JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved sending the director of the Mossad foreign intelligence agency to ceasefire negotiations in Qatar in a sign of progress in talks on the war in Gaza.

Netanyahu’s office announced the decision Saturday. It was not immediately clear when David Barnea would travel to Qatar’s capital, Doha, site of the latest round of indirect talks between Israel and the Hamas militant group. His presence means high-level Israeli officials who would need to sign off on any agreement are now involved.

Just one brief ceasefire has been achieved in 15 months of war, and that occurred in the earliest weeks of fighting. The talks mediated by the United States, Egypt and Qatar have repeatedly stalled since then.

Netanyahu has insisted on destroying Hamas’ ability to fight in Gaza. Hamas has insisted on a full Israeli troop withdrawal from the largely devastated territory. On Thursday, Gaza’s Health Ministry said over 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war.


Syria de facto leader Al-Sharaa phones congratulations to Lebanon’s newly elected President Aoun

Syria de facto leader Al-Sharaa phones congratulations to Lebanon’s newly elected President Aoun
Updated 12 January 2025
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Syria de facto leader Al-Sharaa phones congratulations to Lebanon’s newly elected President Aoun

Syria de facto leader Al-Sharaa phones congratulations to Lebanon’s newly elected President Aoun
  • Call followed talks between Al-Sharaa and Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Damascus
  • Al-Sharaa said he hoped Joseph Aoun’s presidency would usher in an era of stability in Lebanon

DAMASCUS: Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa called newly elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on the phone and congratulated him for assuming the presidency, Syria’s ruling general command reported on Sunday.

The phone call followed talks between Al-Sharaa and Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who was in the Syrian capital on Saturday with a mission to restore ties between the two neighbors.

Mikati’s visit was the first by a Lebanese head of government to Damascus since the Syrian civil war started in 2011.

Previous Lebanese governments refrained from visits to Syria amid tensions at home over militant group Hezbollah’s support for then ruler Bashar Assad during the conflict.

Syria’s new leader Al-Sharaa said he hoped to turn over a new leaf in relations, days after crisis-hit Lebanon finally elected a president this week following two years of deadlock.

“There will be long-term strategic relations between us and Lebanon. We and Lebanon have great shared interests,” Sharaa said in a joint press conference with Mikati.

It was time to “give the Syrian and Lebanese people a chance to build a positive relationship,” he said, adding he hoped Joseph Aoun’s presidency would usher in an era of stability in Lebanon.

Sharaa said the new Syria would “stay at equal distance from all” in Lebanon, and “try to solve problems through negotiations and dialogue.”

Mikati said ties should be based on “mutual respect, equality and national sovereignty.”

Syria was the dominant power in Lebanon for three decades under the Assad family, with president Hafez Assad intervening in its 1975-1990 civil war and his son Bashar Assad only withdrawing Syria’s troops in 2005 following mass protests triggered by the assassination of Lebanese ex-prime minister Rafic Hariri.

After mending ties with Damascus, his son Saad Hariri was the last Lebanese premier to visit the Syrian capital in 2010 before the civil war.

Taking office on Thursday, Aoun swore he would seize the “historic opportunity to start serious... dialogue with the Syrian state.”

With Hezbollah weakened after two months of full-scale war with Israel late last year and Assad now gone, Syrian and Lebanese leaders seem eager to work to solve long-pending issues.

Among them is the presence of some two million Syrian refugees Lebanon says have sought shelter there since Syria’s war started.

Their return to Syria had become “an urgent matter in the interest of both countries,” Mikati said.
Lebanese authorities have long complained that hosting so many Syrians has become a burden for the tiny Mediterranean country which since 2019 has been wracked by its worst-ever economic crisis.
Mikati also said it was a priority “to draw up the land and sea borders between Lebanon and Syria,” calling for creation of a joint committee to discuss the matter.
Under Assad, Syria repeatedly refused to delimit its borders with its neighbor.
Lebanon has hoped to draw the maritime border so it can begin offshore gas extraction after reaching a similar agreement with Israel in 2022.

The Lebanese premier said both sides had stressed the need for “complete control of (land) borders, especially over illicit border points, to stem smuggling.”
Syria shares a 330-kilometer (205-mile) border with Syria with no official demarcation at several points, making it porous and prone to smuggling.
Syria imposed new restrictions on the entry of Lebanese citizens last week, following what Lebanon’s army said was a border skirmish with unnamed armed Syrians.
Lebanese nationals had previously been allowed into Syria without a visa.
Several foreign dignitaries have headed to Damascus in recent weeks to meet the new leaders, with a delegation from Oman also in town earlier Saturday.
Unlike other Arab Gulf states, Oman never severed diplomatic ties with Assad during the war.
Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani visited Damascus on Friday, while France’s Jean-Noel Barrot and his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock did last week.
Shaibani has visited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Jordan this month, and said Friday he would head to Europe soon.
Syria’s war has killed more than half a million people and ravaged the country’s economy since starting in 2011 with the brutal crackdown of anti-Assad protests.