Frankly Speaking: Is it over for Hezbollah?

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Updated 20 October 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Is it over for Hezbollah?

Frankly Speaking: Is it over for Hezbollah?
  • Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Firas Maksad says Lebanese militia wagered nation’s fate on Gaza war’s outcome
  • Says ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war’s domestic toll on a country still suffering from a financial collapse is “tremendous” 

DUBAI: Lebanon is heading for an extended conflict as Israel’s ground invasion enters its fourth week, raising concerns of deeper regional instability. Sounding this warning on the Arab News current affairs show “Frankly Speaking,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the fighting could last far longer than initially anticipated.

“Unfortunately, we are looking at weeks, maybe months, of conflict ahead,” he said.

The clashes between Israeli forces and the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah have destabilized a country already grappling with economic collapse and political dysfunction.

Despite suffering heavy losses, particularly among its leadership, Hezbollah is far from defeated. “It’s certainly not game over. Hezbollah has been significantly weakened. It’s on its back foot,” Maksad said. “Hezbollah is fighting in a more decentralized way right now. We see that on the border. Their fighters are still … putting up a fight there.”

Israel sent troops and tanks into southern Lebanon on Oct. 1 in an escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, a spillover from the Israel-Hamas war that has been raging since Oct. 7 last year in Gaza.

It followed a series of major attacks on Hezbollah in September that degraded its capabilities and devastated its leadership, beginning with explosions of its communication devices.

This was followed by an Israeli aerial bombing campaign against Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, culminating in the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the militia’s firebrand leader, in an airstrike in Dahiyeh, south of Beirut, on Sept. 7.

According to Maksad, Hezbollah’s fragmented central command has left it increasingly reliant on Iranian support. “Hezbollah’s central command is increasingly likely to come under direct Iranian management and control of the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards,” he told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”

“Nasrallah had a margin of maneuver because of his role and stature in the community but also at a regional level, given the group’s involvement in Syria, Iraq, Yemen. That’s now gone. That very much then opens the way for more direct Iranian control, commanding control of Hezbollah in the months ahead.”

Maksad said the general sentiment in Lebanon, and even among Hezbollah’s own support base, is that the Iranian level of support has been at the very least disappointing.

“Public sentiment is one thing and the reality is sometimes another. Iran has sort of always showed some level of support to Hezbollah but has not been willing to stick its neck on the line, so to speak,” he said.

“It fights through its Arab proxies. It has a very clear aversion to be directly involved in a conflict with Israel because of its technological and military inferiority.”




Maksad, appearing on Frankly Speaking, highlighted a dire humanitarian situation, pointing to the more than one million internally displaced people who have fled from Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon. (AN Photo)

Maksad highlighted the dire humanitarian situation in Lebanon, pointing to the more than one million internally displaced people who have fled from Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon.

“About one-quarter of the population is under evacuation orders from the Israeli military,” he said. “The domestic toll for a relatively weak country suffering still from the weight of an unprecedented economic collapse in 2019, where most people lost their life savings in the banks, is tremendous.”

Maksad said the displacement has heightened sectarian tensions, as those displaced from pro-Hezbollah areas have moved into regions less sympathetic to the group.

“It does not bode well longer term for Lebanon, and the longer that this conflict drags, the more we have to (be concerned) about the bubbling of tensions and the instability that that might result in,” he said.

“Hezbollah has essentially wagered the country’s fate on (the outcome of the war) in Gaza and the fate of Hamas and its leaders,” he said.

Maksad also discussed the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict, suggesting that Israel is unlikely to engage in a long-term occupation of southern Lebanon.

“The Israelis fully understand the disadvantages of a lengthy occupation,” he said, recalling the heavy toll it took on the Israeli military when they last occupied Lebanon, a presence that ended in 2000.

“What I keep hearing is that Israel is looking to mop up Hezbollah infrastructure, tunnels and otherwise along the border, perhaps maybe even occupy, for a short period of time, the key villages, because the topography of south Lebanon is such that so many of these border villages are overlooking Israel and they want to take the higher ground.”

Having said that, Maksad predicted that Israel would pursue a diplomatic process, possibly through a new security arrangement based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, after dealing with Hezbollah’s infrastructure.

Hezbollah’s alignment with the cause of Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups has alienated significant segments of the Lebanese population, further straining the country’s already delicate sectarian fabric. The political leadership in Lebanon is consequently under immense pressure.

Maksad views Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, as a crucial player in mediating the crisis. However, at 86 years old, his ability to navigate such a complex situation is in question.




Maksad told host Katie Jensen that he views Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, as a crucial player in mediating the crisis. (AN Photo)

“He can’t do it alone,” Maksad said, noting that other key figures, such as Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Christian political leader Samir Geagea, will need to play constructive roles too. While acknowledging that Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister, is also a key player, he noted that since the assassination in 2005 of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister, “there’s been a void in the Sunni community and it’s been hard to replace that.”

Maksad remarked that Berri, Jumblatt and Geagea were all around during the civil war in the 1980s and are still active players on the Lebanese political scene.

“They have long memories. They remember in 1982 when (Israel’s defense minister) Ariel Sharon initially announced a limited operation into Lebanon and then ended up invading all the way to Beirut, upending the political system, facilitating the election of a pro-Western president,” he said.

But very quickly Iran and Syria launched their comeback, assassinated Bachir Gemayel, the president at the time, and by 1985 had pushed the Israelis all the way back to the south. “Iran and Hezbollah have time  … they tend to be persistent and they have strategic patience,” Maksad said. “Berri and others remember that. So, they’re going to be moving very slowly, and they’re going to be taking their cues from the regional capitals of influence.”

Recent developments in the Middle East, particularly the killing by Israel on Oct. 16 of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, represent what Maksad describes as “a potential fork in the road.”

The killing could either escalate tensions across the region or serve as a turning point, allowing Israel to seek a diplomatic solution, according to Maksad.

“It can open up a diplomatic process where maybe Netanyahu can then reclaim the mantle of ‘Mr. Security,’ having killed Sinwar, and then begin to seriously negotiate a swap that would see the Israeli hostages released. And we all know that a ceasefire in Lebanon was premised on a diplomatic outcome in a ceasefire in Gaza. And, then, arguably, Lebanon can begin to move in that direction,” he said.

However, Iran is on “a completely separate track” and the Middle East could be in the midst of a “multi-stage conflict.”

Maksad added: “Once we get the past the Nov. 5 (US election) day, maybe Netanyahu will have a much freer hand for a second round of attacks that can then maybe take a toll on (Iran’s) nuclear infrastructure and the oil facilities in Iran. And then that opens up a Pandora’s box. So, we’re continuing to be in a very uncertain period for not only Gaza and Lebanon, but for Iran and the region at large.”

Discussing the stances of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states on the Middle East conflicts, Maksad said that these countries are understandably hedging their foreign policy priorities and relations.

“There’s been questions in recent years about the US security commitment to the GCC region, given an increasingly isolationist trend in the US, and talk about ending forever wars,” he said.

“That has rightfully caused countries like Saudi Arabia and others to want to diversify their foreign policy options. I think this is part of a broader strategic approach that the Kingdom has taken. I don’t see any significant changes yet, except that the war in Gaza and now Lebanon, the longer that drags on, the less likely that we’re going to see any progress on normalization with Israel.”

 


Devastating toll for Gaza’s children: Over 13,000 killed and an estimated 25,000 injured, UN says

Palestinian children queue at a food distribution kitchen in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Thursday Nov. 28, 2024. (AP)
Palestinian children queue at a food distribution kitchen in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Thursday Nov. 28, 2024. (AP)
Updated 13 sec ago
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Devastating toll for Gaza’s children: Over 13,000 killed and an estimated 25,000 injured, UN says

Palestinian children queue at a food distribution kitchen in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Thursday Nov. 28, 2024. (AP)
  • The UN says thousands of children have also been orphaned or separated from their parents during the 15-month war

UNITED NATIONS: The war in Gaza has been devastating for children: More than 13,000 have been killed, an estimated 25,000 injured, and at least 25,000 hospitalized for malnutrition, according to UN agencies.
As Britain’s deputy UN ambassador, James Kariuki, recently told the Security Council, “Gaza has become the deadliest place in the world to be a child.”
“The children of Gaza did not choose this war,” he said, “yet they have paid the ultimate price.”
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported Thursday that of the 40,717 Palestinian bodies identified so far in Gaza, one-third – 13,319 – were children. The office said Friday the figures came from Gaza’s Ministry of Health.

The bodies of three children killed by an Israeli strike are carried for burial in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip, Thursday Nov. 21, 2024. (AP)

The UN children’s agency, UNICEF, said the estimate of 25,000 children injured came from its analysis based on information collected together with Gaza’s Health Ministry.
UN deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed said nearly 19,000 children had been hospitalized for acute malnutrition in the four months before December.
That figure also came from UNICEF, which said it was from data collected by UN staff in Gaza focusing on nutrition, in coordination with all pertinent UN agencies.

Palestinian children queue at a food distribution kitchen in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Thursday Nov. 28, 2024. (AP)

The UN says thousands of children have also been orphaned or separated from their parents during the 15-month war.
Yasmine Sherif, executive director of the UN global fund Education Cannot Wait, told a press conference that 650,000 school-age children haven’t been attending classes and the entire education system has to be rebuilt because of the widespread destruction in Gaza.
Diplomats from Britain, France and other countries also cited the toll on Israeli children who were killed, injured and abducted during Hamas’ attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 – with some still being held hostage.
Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon asked the Security Council whether it ever paused to consider the plight of Israeli children “mutilated, tortured and murdered” on Oct. 7, the 30 who were kidnapped and the tens of thousands who have been displaced, their homes destroyed.
“The trauma they have endured is beyond imagination,” he said.
Danon called Thursday’s council meeting on children in Gaza “an affront to common sense,” accusing Hamas of turning Gaza into “the world’s largest terror base” and using children as human shields.
“The children of Gaza could have had a future filled with opportunity,” he said. “Instead, they are trapped in a cycle of violence and despair, all because of Hamas, not because of Israel.”

 

 


US says it is ‘critical’ that Gaza ceasefire implementation continues

US says it is ‘critical’ that Gaza ceasefire implementation continues
Updated 26 January 2025
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US says it is ‘critical’ that Gaza ceasefire implementation continues

US says it is ‘critical’ that Gaza ceasefire implementation continues
  • Both Republican Trump and Democratic former President Joe Biden have been strong backers of Washington’s ally Israel

WASHINGTON: The US government said on Saturday it was “critical” that implementation of the Gaza ceasefire continues, after four Israeli soldiers were freed by Palestinian Hamas militants in exchange for 200 Palestinian prisoners.

KEY QUOTES
“It is critical that the ceasefire implementation continues and that all of the hostages are freed from Hamas captivity and safely returned to their families,” the US State Department said in a statement on Saturday.
Statements by the State Department and the White House welcomed the release of Israeli hostages and did not mention the Palestinian prisoners freed by Israel.
“The United States celebrates the release of the four Israeli hostages held in captivity for 477 days,” the State Department added.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT
The week-old ceasefire in Gaza began last weekend just before US President Donald Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20. Both Republican Trump and Democratic former President Joe Biden have been strong backers of Washington’s ally Israel.
Trump has credited his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff for the ceasefire deal reached after months of talks mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar. Before his inauguration, Trump warned there would be “hell to pay” if hostages held by Hamas in Gaza were not released.

CONTEXT
Hamas took around 250 hostages during an Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel in which about 1,200 people were killed, according to Israeli tallies. It sparked the latest bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Israel’s subsequent military assault on Gaza has killed over 47,000 people, according to the Gaza health ministry, and led to accusations of genocide and war crimes that Israel denies. It also displaced nearly Gaza’s entire population and caused a hunger crisis.

 


Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages?

Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages?
Updated 26 January 2025
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Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages?

Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages?
  • An activist in Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Aradeh, was sentenced to life in prison for a range of offenses going back to the second intifada, or uprising against Israel’s occupation in the early 2000s

RAMALLAH, West Bank: The release of four female Israeli soldiers from Hamas captivity on Saturday came at a heavy cost for Israel.
Israel released 200 Palestinian prisoners, 120 of them serving life sentences, from its jails as part of a ceasefire deal. They ranged in age from 16 to 67.
Some were set free into an exuberant West Bank, while those whose offenses were considered too serious were transferred to Egypt.
In the West Bank city of Ramallah on Saturday, dozens of freed Palestinians, all looking wan and thin in stained gray Israeli prison jumpsuits, disembarked from a white Red Cross bus. They launched themselves into a jubilant crowd.
The images dredged up trauma for Israelis whose loved ones were killed by some of those released.

Palestinian prisoners released by Israel wave and cheer to people below gathering to receive them at a sports centre building of the Ramallah municipality, after arriving there aboard buses of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank on January 25, 2025. (AFP)

Moshe Har Melech, whose son was killed in a Palestinian shooting attack in 2003, said that he was sickened by the released prisoners being greeted as “superheroes” and warned that even exile was no deterrent.
“They’ll continue remotely recruiting and establishing terrorist cells,” he said. “But this time, they’ll be more experienced.”
Adrenalized teenagers streamed the revelry on social media, and mothers wept as they hugged their sons for the first time in years.
“It can’t be described. To be between your mother and father, it’s an indescribable feeling,” said Azmi Nafaa, accused of trying to ram his vehicle into Israeli soldiers at a checkpoint in 2015 and sentenced to 20 years in prison.
After nine years in prison, Nafaa hugged his mother, Hadiya Hamdan. She suggested that she cook meat dumplings in yogurt sauce, and he laughed, suggesting instead the more elaborate “mansaf,” a Bedouin dish of lamb and rice.
“That will be difficult for you,” he said.
“No,” she replied. “Nothing will be difficult.”
There was no such reception for the 70 prisoners sent into exile, whose convoy made its way south and quietly slipped through Gaza’s Rafah border crossing into Egypt.
Underscoring the challenges for Israel, the reception for prisoners in Ramallah, the seat of the Palestinian Authority, revealed an outpouring of support for the rival Hamas group. Many young Palestinians waved the bright green flags of Hamas and called on the militant group to capture more Israelis in order to free all the prisoners.
Hard-line commentators criticized the deal as justice undone and capitulation to the enemy.
“A deal that releases brutal murderers ... endangers the lives of more Israelis down the road,” David M. Weinberg, a senior fellow at the conservative research group Misgav, wrote in the Makor Rishon right-wing newspaper. “And that road is not particularly long.”
Here’s a look at the more prominent Palestinian prisoners released on Saturday.
Mohammed Aradeh, 42
An activist in Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Aradeh, was sentenced to life in prison for a range of offenses going back to the second intifada, or uprising against Israel’s occupation in the early 2000s. Some of the charges, according to the Israeli Prison Service, included planting an explosive device and attempting murder.
He was credited with plotting an extraordinary prison escape in 2021, when he and five other detainees used spoons to tunnel out one of Israel’s most secure prisons. They remained at large for days before being caught.
From an impoverished and politically active family Jenin, in the northern occupied West Bank, Aradeh has three brothers and a sister who have all spent years in Israeli prison.
He was welcomed as a sort of cult hero in Ramallah on Saturday as family, friends and fans swarmed him, some chanting “The freedom tunnel!” in reference to his prison escape. When asked how he felt, Aradeh was breathless.
Over and over he muttered, “Thank God, thank God.”
Mohammed Odeh, 52, Wael Qassim, 54, and Wissam Abbasi, 48
All three men hail from the neighborhood of Silwan, in east Jerusalem, and rose within the ranks of Hamas. Held responsible for a string of deadly attacks during the second intifada, the men were sentenced to multiple life sentences in Israeli jail in 2002.
They were accused of plotting a suicide bombing at a crowded pool hall near Tel Aviv in 2002 that killed 15 people. Later that year, they were found to have orchestrated a bombing at Hebrew University that killed nine people, including five American students. Israel had described Odeh, who was working as a painter at the university at the time, as the kingpin in the attack.
All three were among those transferred to Egypt. Their families all live in Jerusalem.
The Abu Hamid brothers

Three brothers from the prominent Abu Hamid family of the Al-Amari refugee camp in Ramallah — Nasser, 51, Mohammad, 44, and Sharif, 48 — were deported together on Saturday. They had been sentenced to life in prison over deadly militant attacks against Israelis in 2002.
Their brother, a different Nasser Abu Hamid, was one of the founders of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade — an armed militia affiliated with Fatah, the secular political party that controls the Palestinian Authority.
He was also sentenced to life in prison for several deadly attacks. His 2022 death from lung cancer behind bars unleashed a wave of angry protests and strikes across the West Bank as Palestinian officials accused Israel of medical neglect.
The family has a long arc of Palestinian militancy. The mother, Latifa Abu Hamid, 72, now has three sons exiled, one still imprisoned, one who died in prison and one who was killed by Israeli forces. Their family house has been demolished at least three times by Israel, which defends such punitive home demolitions as a deterrent against future attacks.
Mohammad Al-Tous, 67
Al-Tous had held the title of longest continuous Israeli imprisonment until his release on Saturday, Palestinian authorities said.
First arrested in 1985 while fighting Israeli forces along the Jordanian border, the activist in the Fatah party spent a total of 39 years behind bars. Originally from the West Bank city of Bethlehem, he was among the prisoners exiled to Egypt.

 


Trump makes 2,000-pound bombs available to Israel, undoing Biden’s pause

Trump makes 2,000-pound bombs available to Israel, undoing Biden’s pause
Updated 28 min 54 sec ago
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Trump makes 2,000-pound bombs available to Israel, undoing Biden’s pause

Trump makes 2,000-pound bombs available to Israel, undoing Biden’s pause
  • Trump confirmed the decision to lift the suspension on his Truth Social media platform without providing further details
  • Before his inauguration on Jan. 20, Trump had warned there would be “hell to pay” if hostages held by Hamas in Gaza were not released

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump has instructed the US military to release a hold imposed by former President Joe Biden on the supply of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, a White House source told Reuters on Saturday. The move was widely expected. Biden put the hold on the delivery of those bombs due to concern over the impact they could have on the civilian population, particularly in Gaza’s Rafah, during Israel’s war in the Palestinian enclave.
“A lot of things that were ordered and paid for by Israel, but have not been sent by Biden, are now on their way!” Trump said on the Truth Social media platform without providing further details.

File photo showing US Air Force weapons loaders preparing a 2,000-pound bomb for loading into a B-1 bomber during the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. (AFP)

Trump and Biden have been strong supporters of US ally Israel, even as Washington has come under criticism from human rights advocates over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza from Israel’s military assault against the Palestinian militant group Hamas. Protesters have unsuccessfully demanded an arms embargo. A ceasefire went into effect a week ago and has led to the release of some Israeli hostages held in Gaza by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Before his inauguration on Jan. 20, Trump had warned there would be “hell to pay” if hostages held by Hamas in Gaza were not released. Hamas took around 250 hostages during an Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel in which about 1,200 people were killed, according to Israeli tallies. It sparked the latest bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel’s subsequent military assault on Gaza has killed more than 47,000 people, according to the Gaza health ministry, and led to accusations of genocide and war crimes that Israel denies. It also displaced nearly Gaza’s entire population and caused a hunger crisis.
Washington says it is helping Israel defend against Iran-backed militant groups like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

 


Nearly 30 percent of Syrians want to go home, up from almost zero, UN refugee chief says

Nearly 30 percent of Syrians want to go home, up from almost zero, UN refugee chief says
Updated 25 January 2025
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Nearly 30 percent of Syrians want to go home, up from almost zero, UN refugee chief says

Nearly 30 percent of Syrians want to go home, up from almost zero, UN refugee chief says
  • Filippo Grandi says "needle has moved" on refugees wanting to return now Bashar Assad has been deposed

DAMASCUS: Almost 30 percent of the millions of Syrian refugees living in Middle Eastern countries want to return home in the next year, following the fall of President Bashar Assad, up from almost none last year, the head of the UN’s refugee agency said.
The shift is based on an assessment done by the UN in January, weeks after Assad was ousted by Islamist rebels, bringing an abrupt end to a 13-year civil war that had created one of the biggest refugee crises of modern times.
“We have seen the needle move, finally, after years of decline,” Filippo Grandi told a small group of reporters in Damascus, after holding meetings with the Syria’s new ruling administration.
The number of Syrians wishing to return “had reached almost zero. It’s now nearly 30 percent in the space of a few weeks. There is a message there, which I think is very important, must be listened to and must be acted upon,” he said.
Around 200,000 Syrian refugees have already returned since Assad fell, he said, in addition to around 300,000 who fled back to Syria from Lebanon during the Hezbollah-Israel war in September and October, most of whom are thought to have stayed.
Returning the roughly 6 million Syrians who fled abroad and the millions who became internally displaced has been a main aim of Syria’s new administration.
But the civil war has left large parts of many major cities in ruins, services decrepit and the vast majority of the population living in poverty. Syria remains under a harsh Western sanctions regime that effectively cuts off its formal economy from the rest of the world.
To aid Syrians returning, many of whom often sell all their belongings to pay for the trip, UN agencies are providing some cash aid for transportation and will help with food and to reconstruct at least parts of broken homes, Grandi said.
More aid is needed from donors, Grandi said, and sanctions should be reconsidered. He did not comment directly on an announcement on Friday by the new US administration of a broad suspension of foreign aid programs.
“If sanctions are lifted, this will improve the conditions in the places where people return,” he said.
The US earlier this month provided a six-month sanctions exemption for some sectors, including energy, but Syria’s new leaders say much more relief is needed.
Grandi said refugees were responding to a political process that the new administration’s leader Ahmed Sharaa has committed to, aimed at producing a governing authority by March 1 that better represents Syria’s diversity.
“Refugees are listening to what he’s saying, to what his people are saying, and that’s why I think many people decided to go back,” Grandi said. “But many more will come if these things continue to be positive.”