Events in Gaza, Lebanon may bring Egypt and Iran closer

The relationship between Egypt and Iran is one of the most complex in the Middle East, largely due to significant political and ideological differences that have persisted for decades. Recently, changing dynamics in the region, especially the ongoing events in Lebanon and Gaza, have brought this relationship back into focus. As regional tensions rise, observers are questioning whether these developments will hasten the normalization process between Cairo and Tehran, two historically influential players in the region.

As a result of Israel’s wars on Lebanon and Gaza, the prospect of rapprochement between Egypt and Iran seems closer than ever. Both public and behind-the-scenes communications are ongoing, culminating in Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Egypt on Thursday as part of his Middle East tour. The discussions focused on ways to de-escalate the situation in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as easing tensions between Iran and Israel.

Through this visit, Iran sought to improve relations with Egypt after years of stagnation. Since the March 2023 Saudi-Iranian agreement to resume relations, communication between Iran and Egypt has increased. Oman has played a mediating role, conveying messages between the two countries to pave the way for the potential resumption of diplomatic ties. Despite the obstacles, there are encouraging signs of diplomatic progress between Cairo and Tehran, particularly given the shared security challenges in the region, such as the situations in Yemen and Gaza.

To understand the prospects for rapprochement or normalization between Cairo and Tehran, it is important to consider the historical context of the crisis.

Before the 1979 Iranian Revolution, led by Ayatollah Khomeini, Egypt and Iran enjoyed strong strategic relations. There was close political and military cooperation, with Iran supporting Egypt in facing regional challenges during the era of President Gamal Abdel Nasser. The two nations maintained strong diplomatic relations.

However, the relationship changed dramatically after the overthrow of the shah. Relations entered a phase of continuous tension, largely due to the new Iran regime’s opposition to the 1978 Camp David Accords. Egypt also viewed Iran as a backer of extremist Islamist groups that threatened its national security, a belief reinforced by the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. Iran further strained relations by naming a street in Tehran after Sadat’s assassin, Khalid Islambouli.

Despite the obstacles, there are encouraging signs of diplomatic progress between Cairo and Tehran. 

Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy

Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, relations remained cold, with both countries supporting opposing sides in various regional conflicts. Iran was a key backer of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian factions, while Egypt, under President Hosni Mubarak, remained a pillar of the Sunni Arab order and maintained close relations with the US.

Despite these tensions, limited communication persisted, with economic and cultural exchanges remaining open to some extent. This laid the groundwork for potential reconciliation if the geopolitical landscape changed.

Egypt and Iran have often found themselves on opposing sides of many issues. For instance, during the Iran-Iraq War, Egypt fully supported Iraq and opposed Iran’s ambitions of regional expansion. Egypt also backed the Gulf states threatened by Iran’s proxies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

When conflict erupted in the region on Oct. 7. 2023, all possibilities became open. Iran plays a central role in supporting Hezbollah on both the military and political fronts, while Egypt views the situation in Lebanon with deep concern, especially as further escalation could affect the stability of the entire region. Despite disagreements between Cairo and Tehran over Iran’s role in Lebanon, this crisis could open the door to new dialogue on how to contain the situation.

In Gaza, Iran is a major military and financial backer of Hamas, while Egypt has consistently acted as a mediator between Israel and Hamas. Cairo is keen to avoid a full-scale war that would negatively impact regional security. This situation presents potential opportunities for direct understandings between the two states.

Araghchi’s visit to Egypt, following intensive communication, came at a highly sensitive moment, with tensions in the region at unprecedented levels. This suggests that Iran is seeking to improve its relations with regional countries, including Egypt, to ease international and regional pressure. Strengthening its ties with Cairo would bolster Iran’s regional stance, particularly on issues like Lebanon and Gaza.

For Egypt, maintaining stability in Gaza is crucial for its national security. Meanwhile, Iran’s support for Palestinian resistance factions, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, through financial and military backing, aligns with its broader anti-Israel narrative. Tactical coordination could serve the interests of both countries.

Araghchi’s visit to Egypt, following intensive communication, came at a highly sensitive moment. 

Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy

Lebanon’s political and economic crisis also casts a shadow over the region. Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, wields significant influence in Lebanese politics. While Egypt has traditionally avoided engaging with Hezbollah, the deteriorating situation in Lebanon has raised concerns in Cairo about potential instability spreading across the Arab world. There is growing recognition in Egyptian foreign policy circles that some form of cooperation with Iran may be necessary to prevent Lebanon’s collapse, which could have far-reaching regional consequences.

Another factor driving Egypt and Iran toward possible rapprochement is the changing dynamics in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia, Egypt’s closest Gulf ally, has begun its own dialogue with Iran. Although relations between Riyadh and Tehran remain strained, these talks indicate a broader trend towards regional de-escalation. Egypt may see this as an opportunity to explore its own path to normalization without jeopardizing its relationships with Gulf states. If Saudi Arabia and Iran can engage diplomatically, there is room for Egypt to explore rapprochement as well.

However, despite the realistic chances of rapprochement, major hurdles remain. One is the ideological divide. Egypt remains skeptical of the political Islam embraced by Iran, as well as its revolutionary narrative. Additionally, the two countries have conflicting alliances, with Egypt closely tied to the West while Iran remains heavily sanctioned. Iran’s support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas continues to be a point of contention, as Egypt views these groups as destabilizing forces in the region.

Iran’s continued backing of armed groups across the region, which Egypt sees as a direct threat to Arab national security, presents a major barrier. Furthermore, Iran’s expansionist policies in Yemen and Syria are still key points of disagreement between the two countries.

Despite these challenges, the relationship may see at least temporary rapprochement, as the two countries cooperate on shared regional issues like the crises in Lebanon and Gaza. This scenario assumes that the two nations will work to build trust through political and diplomatic dialogue.

Whether this rapprochement can help resolve the situations in Gaza and Lebanon remains uncertain. Progress will depend on both parties’ ability to overcome these obstacles and engage in effective political dialogue to address regional challenges.

• Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy has covered conflicts worldwide. X: @ALMenawy