UNHCR official says refugee numbers will surge without urgent climate action

The Institute for Economics and Peace predicts that in the worst-case scenario, 1.2 billion people could be displaced by 2050 as a result of natural disasters and other ecological threats. (WEF/File)

• Global Future Councils, Andrew Harper underlines need ‘to turn despondency into hope’
• Prof. Tolu Oni: ‘Future cities could be transformative if designed to be “cleaner, greener, and fairer”’

DUBAI: The global refugee crisis will continue to escalate unless immediate action is taken to address the effects of climate change, Andrew Harper, special advisor to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, told the Global Future Councils in Dubai on Tuesday.

Highlighting the inextricable link between human security and climate change, Harper said that current data paints a grim picture, making it difficult to remain optimistic about future outcomes.

“There are talks, meetings and conferences but we are still not seeing the change that is required,” Harper said.

“The number of vulnerable people and refugees fleeing conflicts and climate disasters will only increase if no change is implemented. The climate is getting warmer and so we simply must change from rhetoric to action.”

With more than 120 million refugees worldwide, Harper said that accountability must extend not only to the refugees themselves but also to the countries that host them.

“How do you go about empowering people when you’ve got budget cuts in food programs and other organizations? There are no schools, no education on sustainability, we have got to turn despondency into hope.”

Harper called for a focus on “repairing the environment,” adequately funding frontline workers, and building sustainable infrastructure, stressing the importance of including women and youth in decision-making processes to “find long term solutions for our long term problems.”

According to UNHCR, 84 percent of refugees and asylum seekers in 2022 came from highly climate-vulnerable countries, up from 61 percent in 2010.

Only 1 percent of refugees have been able to return home, a challenge expected to grow as climate change continues to worsen conditions in many countries, further deteriorating basic living conditions and hindering opportunities for development in many countries of origin.

The Institute for Economics and Peace predicts that in the worst-case scenario, 1.2 billion people could be displaced by 2050 as a result of natural disasters and other ecological threats.

Speaking on the “Betazone: Green and Fair?” panel, Tolu Oni, clinical professor of global public health and sustainable urban development at the University of Cambridge, said that cities and large urban areas are not immune to the effects of climate change.

She argued that as pressure and reliance on urbanization grow, cities must be central to climate change discussions.

Oni said “50 percent of greenhouse emissions come from cities. Meanwhile, urbanization is happening faster than ever before in history. It cannot be business-as-usual-models anymore. We need to develop new approaches.”

Oni pointed out that future cities could be transformative if designed to be “cleaner, greener, and fairer,” warning that relying on outdated methods would come at a high cost.

“Are we exploring different ways or still consulting the same people but expecting different outcomes?” she said, adding that “the cost of inaction will be high if cities are not built well and will end up bearing the cost later in a different sector, like the health sector.”

Oni stressed the need for better urban planning and financing, emphasizing intersectoral collaboration. She also called for local action and greater public involvement in decision-making.

“We need to democratize knowledge creation and encourage mainstream participation,” she said, noting that real change can come only through collective effort at every level.