https://arab.news/2uvp8
More than at any point over the last 12 months, the ambitions of just one man will determine the course of what is now a full-on Middle East war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has more freedom of action than ever before. A year ago, he was constrained by Israeli public opinion, which was furious at the military and security failures that allowed the Hamas atrocities of Oct. 7. Many wrote off his political future. He embarked on a full-scale battle with the security services, on which he tried to pin the blame.
Back then, Netanyahu was hostage to his coalition partners, the ones who could force him out. The protests largely consisted of Israelis who had never voted for him. So as long as he kept his partners inside the tent, he could proceed. He relied on their appreciation that, if the coalition fell, their electoral chances would be slim.
Netanyahu’s calculation was that only an all-out victory that rearranged Israel’s regional environment would allow him to dominate Israeli politics once again.
What altered the whole political scene for Netanyahu was the string of hugely successful Israeli intelligence operations
Chris Doyle
Flattening Gaza was the first step. As he stated, Israel was at war. At no stage has Netanyahu ever considered a lasting ceasefire, as he did in 2012 and 2014. His interest was in maintaining the crisis and going for what he saw as an all-out victory. Israeli polls showed backing for the policy of the siege of Gaza and the pummeling of its civilian infrastructure. Revenge was popular. They liked the policy but not the politician.
The fleas for Netanyahu in this bloody ointment were the hostages. Contrary to Israeli tradition, Netanyahu was prepared to abandon them to annihilate Gaza. That he abandoned them is an accusation leveled at him by many of the families of the hostages.
However, smashing Gaza had regional repercussions. As the genocide continued, Iran and its regional allies become more involved.
Regional escalation was an opportunity for Netanyahu as well as a liability. He could not be blamed within Israel for Hezbollah and Houthi attacks, let alone the two salvos of Iranian missiles this year.
What altered the whole political scene for Netanyahu was the string of hugely successful Israeli intelligence operations. Having failed to kill Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, Israel succeeded in getting Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the Iranian capital no less. The pager attacks against Hezbollah were a powerful, if terrifying, reminder of Israel’s capabilities. The decapitation of Hezbollah, notably the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, was arguably the coup de grace. Watch the video of Netanyahu boasting: “We took out thousands of terrorists, including Nasrallah himself, and Nasrallah’s replacement and his replacement’s replacement.”
It was also easier for Netanyahu to lure the Biden administration into backing him in a direct conflict with Iran and Hezbollah, ensuring full complicity. Iran’s missile attacks ensured Biden would rally round his leading Middle East ally.
This is why Biden had to hold his first call with Netanyahu for seven weeks. The White House readout of Biden and Kamala Harris’ call with Netanyahu last week did not include the word “ceasefire.”
He can use this time to soften Hezbollah and Lebanon up even further, reducing Iran’s response options
Chris Doyle
What now? Netanyahu has options regarding Iran. These include hitting missile facilities, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or state infrastructure such as oil and gas facilities, as well as nuclear sites. Biden opposes strikes on the oil and gas sites owing to the global economic impact. Iran has threatened the Gulf Arab states if this happened. The nuclear facilities maybe too tough for Israel to take out on its own, so would require US participation. Iran has promised to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty in response to any Israeli strike, which is code for pushing ahead full speed for a nuclear arsenal.
Yet Netanyahu must be tempted on the nuclear front. He has campaigned for years to take out this threat. But is he prepared to get into further missile pingpong with Iran? Could a first strike deal a major blow to any future Iranian missile response?
The lack of an Israeli response so far shows Netanyahu is prepared to keep Iran sweating. The US has promised Israel a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, along with US troops to bolster antimissile defenses against Iran. He can use the time to soften Hezbollah and Lebanon up even further, reducing Iran’s response options.
But Israel will strike. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant proclaimed rather dramatically: “Our attack will be deadly, pinpoint accurate and, most importantly, surprising — they will not know what happened or how it happened.”
One attraction for Netanyahu of the Lebanese and the Iranian fronts is diverting attention from both Gaza and the West Bank. The eradication of a Palestinian presence in northern Gaza and the escalation of settlement building and forced displacement in the West Bank will be the backing vocals to the war to the north and the east. Netanyahu believes he can fight on many fronts and, worse, he is confident nobody will stop him.
- Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech