https://arab.news/56ybm
RIYADH: Global oil consumption will increase by 1.93 billion barrels per day in 2024, down from a previous estimate of 2.03 million bpd, according to OPEC.
The monthly report of the alliance indicates that global crude demand will rise by 1.64 million bpd in 2025, a decrease from the earlier forecast of 1.74 million bpd. This marks the group’s third consecutive downward revision.
The Vienna-based organization said the revision was “largely due to actual data received combined with slightly lower expectations” for some regions.
OPEC also said that the world economy will witness a growth of 3 percent and 2.9 percent in 2024 and 2025, respectively – a projection unchanged from last month.
The organization said that the market remains well above the historical average of 1.4 million bpd seen before the pandemic, primarily propelled by strong air travel and road mobility, as well as growing industrial, agricultural, and construction activities.
OPEC’s oil demand growth forecast remains above the projection made by the International Energy Agency in September.
IEA said that global oil demand is on course to increase by 900,000 bpd in 2024 and 950,000 bpd next year, driven by China’s economic slowdown and widespread adoption of electric vehicles.
OPEC said that global oil demand is expected to reach 104.1 million bpd in 2024 and 105.8 million bpd in 2025.
The alliance also trimmed its forecast of Chinese market growth to 580,000 bpd from a previous projection of 650,000 bpd growth.
Amid these revisions, in September OPEC raised its forecasts for world oil demand for the medium and long term in an annual outlook, driven by growth led by India, Africa, and the Middle East and a slower shift to electric vehicles and cleaner fuels.
According to the alliance’s annual report, world crude demand in 2028 will reach 111 million bpd and 112.3 million bpd in 2029. The 2028 figure is up 800,000 bpd from last year’s prediction.
OPEC forecasted that there will be 2.9 billion vehicles on the road, up 1.2 billion from 2023.
Despite electric car growth, vehicles powered by a combustion engine will account for more than 70 percent of the global fleet in 2050, affirming strong oil demand growth for the long term.