Will the UK step up its Middle East diplomacy?
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In July, the UK’s Labour Party took over a country riddled with domestic socioeconomic crises. Its landslide victory was the result of a curious mix of the public’s disappointment with its predecessor and the hope that Labour would breathe new life into governance in the UK. At the same time, Labour’s ascent to power came in the context of an increasingly volatile Middle East. From the get-go, the Labour government was faced with the herculean task of developing a balanced yet effective British foreign policy in the region.
The Middle East remains a challenge for the Labour government, which marks its 100th day in power on Saturday. The war in Gaza, which is now more than a year old, continues without the establishment of a ceasefire and has now expanded into hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, Iran and Yemen. The instability in Lebanon is of particular concern to the UK, given the presence of more than 10,000 British nationals in the country. The government is actively working toward their safe evacuation and has deployed nearly 700 troops to Cyprus for contingency planning.
The choice of David Lammy to take over as foreign secretary was initially met with optimism. Lammy comes with more than two decades of political experience, including three years as shadow foreign secretary. Known for his penchant for altering views to find a common ground between actors, Lammy was expected to use this flexibility to devise a British foreign policy in the Middle East that would bring the warring parties to the discussion table. In the past year, he has visited the region nearly 10 times, highlighting its strategic importance for the UK.
However, critics question whether Lammy has the gravitas to shape a bold British foreign policy in the region. Despite several rounds of diplomatic negotiations with regional players, the prospects for a ceasefire are negligible and Israeli hostilities continue. Other policies, such as the UK’s decision to hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Island to Mauritius, are also being criticized. Separately, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office is focused on the war in Ukraine.
The Labour government has not failed entirely in prioritizing the Middle East in its first 100 days. In July, Lammy visited Israel and Palestine on his first trip to the Middle East since becoming foreign secretary, followed by another visit to Qatar, Lebanon and Israel in August with Defense Secretary John Healey to discuss de-escalation in the region. Lammy made another visit to Israel and Palestine later in August along with his French counterpart Stephane Sejourne. Moreover, he has repeatedly called for a ceasefire in the region, joined by his French, Irish and American counterparts.
Indeed, the government has taken some tangible measures toward mitigating the conflict in the Middle East. It has increased its humanitarian pledges in Gaza and Lebanon. In September, the UK halted nearly 30 out of 350 arms export licenses for Israel after assessing that there was a risk that such exports might be used in violation of international humanitarian law. However, critics have argued the impact of such a move is negligible and its efficacy is reduced by the government’s assertion that “the suspension will not change the UK’s steadfast support for Israel’s security.”
Early in its tenure, the government had to put all hands on deck to solve a host of domestic challenges
Zaid M. Belbagi
The Labour government faces the dual challenge of attending to domestic concerns as well as rapidly spiraling geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Early in its tenure, the government had to put all hands on deck to solve a host of domestic challenges. An ailing healthcare system, prolonged housing and cost-of-living crises and rising numbers of asylum seekers and migrants are just some of the reasons that led to the public’s resounding rejection of the previous Conservative government. It was thus inevitable that the Labour government would prioritize working on these issues as the electorate observes its performance with impatient anticipation.
While its approach to conflict resolution has been frail, the Labour government has been proactive in developing trade relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council. In July, the government announced its intention to establish a trade deal with the GCC, which could boost the UK economy. Earlier this month, UK ministers visited the Gulf ahead of the upcoming International Investment Summit in the UK. Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds and Trade Policy Minister Douglas Alexander met their GCC counterparts in Riyadh to discuss the growth of the UK economy by enhancing trade and investment ties with the region.
Security and stability in the region is crucial for deeper trade relations between the UK and the Gulf states. Given that the Labour government has prioritized such economic cooperation, it must bolster its endeavors to secure the necessary regional peace. This will allow the UK to open new avenues of cooperation with the Middle East, such as collaboration with the Gulf states in the renewable energy sector, which is a shared interest. Shifting to sustainable energy sources is emerging as a top priority for the UK, given its focus on enhancing its wind energy sector and the recent closure of the UK’s last coal power station.
The Labour government is unlikely to significantly alter its approach to the Middle East in what remains of 2024. The incumbent government is expected to continue aligning with its Western partners on the Middle East. However, the war in Gaza is rapidly evolving into a regional conflict. British citizens, troops, assets and trade in the region are under significant threat and this may drive the Labour government to attempt to expedite a resolution of the conflict.
The upcoming budget and strategic defense review will provide important clues as to where the government’s priorities lie in its first year in power and how financially viable it is for the UK to prioritize conflict resolution in the Middle East. This comes as the region is reevaluating its international partnerships and the UK itself is faced with a crisis of global influence. Thus, in shaping its foreign policy, the Labour government must realize that its vision of a “Britain reconnected” goes through a conflict-ridden Middle East.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council region. X: @Moulay_Zaid
