https://arab.news/9wpm2
The question of a possible endgame for Israel to declare victory and then think of a political process in the Middle East is a key one not only for regional states and citizens, but also for the international community. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu envisions a “Greater Israel” without a Palestinian state and he has no political solution for the endless military conflicts in Lebanon, Iraq or Yemen. Netanyahu’s dream is based on a security-only approach without any consideration for peace, which remains the main hurdle to integrating Israel into the regional landscape.
The endless occupation of Palestine and perpetual wars in the region cannot be a long-term political strategy for Israel. Overall, Israel’s strategic considerations in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen reflect its broader security concerns in the Middle East. The region’s volatility, driven by non-state actors like Hezbollah, Iran’s influence and the ongoing conflicts in Yemen and Iraq, poses challenges for Israel’s national security. In such a complex landscape, Israel’s military and political objectives are shaped by its goals of attempting to neutralize threats, secure its borders and maintain its military dominance.
Hezbollah has been Israel’s primary concern. Israel views Hezbollah’s missile arsenal and military infrastructure as a major threat. A key objective is to neutralize Hezbollah’s ability to fire rockets into Israel. Tel Aviv is using precision strikes on Hezbollah’s weapons depots, rocket launch sites and military installations. And by targeting Iranian-backed infrastructure and logistics, Israel hopes to reduce Hezbollah’s power and undermine Iran’s influence in Lebanon.
Tel Aviv hopes to be in a position to militarily target Iranian territories without risking counterattacks by Hezbollah
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami
By eliminating the threat of Hezbollah, Tel Aviv hopes to be in a position to militarily target Iranian territories without risking counterattacks by Hezbollah on its northern border. This is why Israel is keen on ensuring that Hezbollah cannot establish control over areas near the Israeli-Lebanese border. By creating buffer zones and enforcing demilitarized areas, Israel aims to reduce the threat of cross-border attacks. A significantly degraded Hezbollah — militarily and politically — would be a major victory for Israel.
Iraq is a major battleground for competing regional powers, particularly Iran, which exerts significant influence over the country’s Shiite militias. These militias, especially those aligned with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, pose a direct threat to Israel. They could be used to facilitate the transfer of weapons or deployed as proxies in a conflict with Israel.
Tel Aviv has reportedly conducted airstrikes on weapons convoys and bases belonging to Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. The goal is to disrupt the flow of weapons, including advanced missile technology, to groups that might be deployed against Israel, particularly in Syria or Lebanon. The land corridor connecting Iran through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon is of strategic importance to Iran. Israel views preventing the consolidation of this corridor as essential to its broader strategy of curbing Iranian influence.
A victory for Israel would include severely limiting the operational capacity of Iraqi Shiite militias that pose a potential threat to its national security. From Israel’s perspective, this can only be achieved through a combination of airstrikes, intelligence operations and diplomatic pressure. If Iraq’s central government were to shift away from Iranian influence, perhaps through internal political realignments or international pressure, this would represent a significant win for Israel’s long-term regional security.
Also, Israel has strategic interests in ensuring that Iran does not gain a foothold in Yemen, as this would pose a threat to its maritime routes and regional allies. Israel’s primary concern is that Iran is using Yemen as a base to launch attacks against its territories and that the Houthis are receiving weapons, including advanced missiles, from Iran. Another Israeli objective is to secure the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab Strait. Indeed, controlling this critical maritime chokepoint is vital for Israel’s trade and military logistics. A Houthi-controlled Yemen, under Iranian influence, will disrupt shipping routes and pose a threat to Israel’s naval operations.
For Israel, favorable outcomes include diminishing Iranian support for the Houthis, limiting their military capabilities and preventing them from destabilizing the region. Israel wants to see Yemen as part of a regional pro-Western alliance. For Israel, victory is likely defined in terms of achieving security and deterrence rather than territorial gains.
For Israel, victory is likely defined in terms of achieving security and deterrence rather than territorial gains
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami
Some possible conditions under which Israel might declare victory and move toward a political process include the de-escalation of hostilities. Once the immediate military threats are neutralized, Israel could think about a ceasefire, either unilaterally or through international mediation.
Moreover, Israel could seek greater international involvement to reinforce the new status quo, ensuring that Hezbollah, Iranian militias or the Houthis are constrained by international agreements. This would limit Tehran’s capacity to threaten Israel directly. This is why Israeli military forces are trying to directly strike Iranian territories with US approval.
The end Israeli goal is to target the head of Tehran’s regional network of influence. Nevertheless, Israel’s mistake is to think that regional proxies and partners of the Islamic Republic are merely puppets of the Iranian supreme leader. In fact, some are local actors that are seeking to achieve their own domestic interests, which also fall within the framework of Tehran’s broader objectives.
Israel’s potential plans in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen are interconnected with its broader goal of countering Iranian influence and securing its borders from militant groups. Victory, from an Israeli perspective, involves weakening hostile forces like Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias, while maintaining control over key security zones. The political process can only begin once Israel achieves a deterrence-based security arrangement; one that curbs Iran’s influence and minimizes the military threats from its proxies.
Nevertheless, this Israeli search for a definitive long-term military solution remains the main hurdle to any meaningful political solution to regional conflicts involving Israel, given the high-level regional polarization in the context of the Gaza war.
- Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is the founder and president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). X: @mohalsulami