The surprises of Sinwar’s year

On Oct. 7, 2023, Yahya Sinwar achieved half of his old dream. He wanted to deal Israel an unprecedented blow and force it to release tens of thousands of Palestinian prisoners. The world was shocked by the extent of the surprise.

Sinwar managed to reach that day due to several factors. Among them was Quds Force commander Esmail Ghaani fulfilling the agreement that his slain predecessor, Qassem Soleimani, had struck in secret with the Hamas movement. The agreement called for providing finances, smuggling arms and improving the network of Gaza tunnels so that they could accommodate the manufacture of weapons because the enclave was going to remain under Israeli siege.

Sinwar dispatched officers from Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades to Beirut and Tehran, where they underwent arduous training without being given a scenario in which they would implement this training. The officers then trained forces in the Gaza tunnels amid a campaign aimed at deceiving Israel into believing that Hamas was content with controlling Gaza.

Sinwar then moved from planning to execution. He kept the date of execution secret from everyone except for five people: his brother Mohammed, Al-Qassam Brigades leader Mohammed Deif, Deif’s deputy Marwan Issa, Rawhi Mushtaha and Ayman Nofal. They were all eventually killed by Israel, except for Sinwar and his brother.

Another surprise was how Netanyahu succeeded in turning the war on Gaza into an existential one

Ghassan Charbel

Ten hours before the time of execution, the units that would be tasked with the attack were informed of their mission and told to make sure that news of the plans would not be leaked.

The mission was aimed at capturing as many Israeli hostages as possible, so that Hamas would be able to approach Israel from a position of strength. The attackers were surprised with the collapse of the Israeli defenses, so they expanded their targets and more fighters joined the attack. “Some practices were committed that Israel would later exploit and exaggerate,” said sources close to Hamas.

The Israeli collapse was the second surprise. The first was that the operation was even planned in the first place without being detected.

It was not surprising that Israel would retaliate with strikes and barbarism, but the prevailing impression was that Israel would not risk sending its soldiers to the tunnels, where they would incur losses like Israel had never experienced in previous lightning wars. Israel’s behavior here was the third surprise.

The impression was that the security agencies’ failure to protect the settlements would lead to the collapse of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, which was already under pressure due to corruption cases and large street protests.

Another surprise was how Netanyahu succeeded in turning the war on Gaza into an existential one. He exerted unprecedented pressure on the military and security institutions to launch a relentless war regardless of the human and economic losses. He took advantage of the wide Western sympathy with Israel in the wake of the attacks and the US’ firm commitment to its security.

In the wake of Oct. 7, Hezbollah announced what it described as a “support front,” carrying out attacks against Israel from southern Lebanon that, for nearly a year, remained within the so-called rules of engagement.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, pretended to respect the rules of the game. He sent delegations to negotiate the release of hostages and maneuvered for as long as he could. He wanted to prolong the war while setting his sights on the American presidential election. He wanted to destroy Gaza and deal a fatal blow to Hamas’ military capabilities before turning his attention to the greater and more dangerous front with Lebanon.

From Sinwar’s attack, the “support front” and the drones fired by the Iraqi factions and rockets launched by the Houthis in Yemen, Netanyahu managed to read Iran’s war on Israel. He decided to change the rules of the game and deprive Iran of the ability to continue to run the war by proxy. He decided to summon it to a direct confrontation. He did not hesitate in killing Revolutionary Guards generals meeting in the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

Netanyahu wounded Iran’s image and insulted it, so Tehran fired rockets at Israel. The confrontation became clearer and more dangerous. Netanyahu went even further in challenging Iran by assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran itself. He changed the battle from confronting the proxies to confronting the power that is controlling them.

He changed the battle from confronting the proxies to confronting the power that is controlling them

Ghassan Charbel

Last month, as the US entered its presidential election coma, Netanyahu pushed the game of surprises to its limit. He blew up the communications devices used by Hezbollah. It was a painful blow that revealed the extent to which the party had been breached. The attack was followed by 10 days of massive surprises that culminated in the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

And so, Israel moved to act on the threats of its Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to replicate the images from Gaza in Beirut and Lebanon. Before Hezbollah could recover from the Nasrallah shock, it was dealt another blow when his potential heir, Hashem Safieddine, was targeted in an Israeli attack. Once again, Iran fired its rockets at Israel and now the region lives in tense anticipation of the Israeli response, which will likely target Iranian facilities.

On the Lebanese front, Israel achieved unprecedented surprises that it could not even make in Gaza. The war on Lebanon is much more dangerous. Israel is acting as though the war with Hezbollah is a decisive, inevitable chapter in the war against Iran.

Sinwar never informed anyone of the date of the Oct. 7 attack. He feared that the date would be leaked. However, the allied forces in the so-called resistance axis were aware that something was being planned, which is why the “support front” was ready for action the very next day.

The year of surprises was costly and very dangerous. The Gaza massacre is unprecedented. The international community’s ineffectiveness is glaring. America is weak in influencing Israel. Visits by its Secretary of State Antony Blinken no longer raise hope. Russia is celebrating the reclaiming of Ukrainian villages and French President Emmanuel Macron stands by as an idle commentator.

Winter has arrived. Who will protect the displaced in Gaza from the rain and the misery of living among the rubble? Who will protect the displaced in Lebanon from the harsh winter? Talk of a ceasefire in Gaza is pointless. The losses by all parties in the war are staggering, which is why they prefer for the horrors to continue rather than pay the price for ending them. A crazy region awaits more blood, blows and surprises.

• Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel

This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.